NCAAF Pick: Notre Dame -7 (-115) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
The oddsmakers post early lines for a reason and we like to see where they go so that we can take advantage of the underdogs that are getting too many points and the favorites laying too few in Week 2 of college football.
Let’s scope out the NCAAF odds at the best offshore sportsbooks and make some money this Saturday!
Arizona Wildcats vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Saturday, September 09, 2023 – 7:30 PM EDT at Davis Wade Stadium
Key Facts
- Mississippi State defeated Arizona, 39-17, and covered as 13-point road chalk last year.
- Mississippi State has now won and covered their last four games dating back to last season.
- Will Rogers had 227 passing yards with a 69% completion percentage (20-for-29) while passing for two touchdowns in Mississippi State’s 48-7 win over SE Louisiana last week.
Revenge Game?
Mississippi State invaded the desert last season and came away with a 22-point win over Arizona and easily covered as 13-point road chalk. This year the Bulldogs will have the luxury of playing in front of the fan friendlies and are down as low as 8½ point favorites at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review) after starting the week as 10½ point home chalk.
That’s a significant difference as we not only get the Bulldogs at a much better line and have not only moved onto what can be a critical number (10) but have now gone through it to a much more tolerable 8½.
The Pick
No, -8½ isn’t far removed from -7 but I believe the Dawgs can win this one by double digits which is why I am content with the value we are getting with Mississippi State. The Bulldogs never broke a sweat in their landslide 48-7 victory over SE Louisiana in the opening week and should be able to handle the Wildcats and cover the number.
NCAAF Pick: Mississippi State -8½ (-108) at Heritage Sports
Houston Cougars vs. Rice Owls
Saturday, September 09, 2023 – 7:00 PM EDT at Rice Stadium
Key Facts
- Houston has failed to cover in 4 of their last 7 games dating back to last season.
- Rice has covered in 2 of their last 3 games versus Houston.
- Rice has covered in 2 of their last 3 games dating back to last season.
Spanking New
Houston is a brand-new entry to the Big 12 this season after spending a decade in the AAC and will face its second consecutive opponent from its old conference. In their first game of the 2023 season, the Cougars defeated UTSA, 17-14, as two-point home underdogs.
This week they will take on another AAC foe in Rice, a team that Houston defeated last season, 34-27, but failed to cover the spread as 17-point home chalk. The Cougars have defeated the Owls in seven consecutive games but it should be known that the Owls have covered in two of the last three meetings.
Reality Check
Speaking of the Owls, they were clearly out of their league in their season opener when they traveled to Texas and got a harsh dose of reality in their 37-10 loss. However, Rice did stay within the generous margins the oddsmakers were giving them and covered as 35½ point road pups.
The Pick
The line opened with Houston -8 but that number has drifted a bit too far at one particular shop, and we are going to take advantage of their largesse and grab the points with what we believe is a live home underdog.
NCAAF Pick: Rice +10 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. NC State Wolfpack
Saturday, September 09, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Carter-Finley Stadium
Key Facts
- Notre Dame has covered their last 3 games dating back to last season.
- NC State is 2-8 against the spread over their last 10 games.
- NC State has averaged just 19.8 points per game over their last 10 contests.
Opening Line
The line on this game opened at Notre Dame -8½ but that number has tumbled as much as 1½ points to where we can get the road favorite as low as -7 at shops like Bookmaker. Obviously, the 7 is significant as being one of the most important numbers in football and although we would love to get the additional hook on the Irish, we can always buy it if the mood strikes us.
Dominant
Notre Dame has been nothing short of dominant in their first two games. The first was a 42-3 evisceration of Navy as 20½ point neutral site favorites in Dublin, Ireland while last week they were even better against Tennessee State in which they secured a 56-3 victory and covered the 49-point impost.
The Pick
Naturally, NC State is a big step up in class but what has the Wolfpack done to give us any cause for pause about betting on Notre Dame this week?
The Pack opened as 14½ point road chalk over Connecticut in their season opener and came away with an uninspiring 24-14 win, making it the eighth time in 10 games that they have failed to cover the number.
If the oddsmakers want to give me -7 on the Irish, who am I to say no?
NCAAF Pick: Notre Dame -7 (-115) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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