College Football Week 13 Black Friday Picks: Penn St. Defense Will Smother the Spartans

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Kaytron Allen #13 of the Penn State Nittany Lions celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights during the second half at Beaver Stadium on November 18, 2023. Scott Taetsch/Getty Images/AFP

Top NCAAF Pick: Penn State-Michigan State Under 43½ (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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There’s good news for anyone not into fighting traffic and crowds shopping on Black Friday, and that’s a big slate of college football action with NCAAF odds ripe for the picking.

TCU Horned Frogs vs. Oklahoma Sooners

Friday, November 24, 2023 – 12:00 PM ET at Memorial Stadium

It’s the final conference meeting between TCU and Oklahoma, and just like the 12 previous Big 12 matchups, the Sooners are giving up points for the early Black Friday boot from Norman.

Totals Have Split Last 10 Meetings

Texas Christian has current bragging rights following a 55-24 win last season in Ft. Worth where the top offshore sportsbooks were giving the Horned Frogs 5 points. The Horned Frogs used big plays to score four touchdowns in the opening quarter and amassed 668 total yards of offense.

That was one of only two Big 12 wins for TCU in the rivalry, and the Sooners are a perfect 5-0 at home as conference opponents. ‘Under’ bettors have cashed four of five matchups in Norman.

Gabriel Questionable for OU

The Horned Frogs halted a 3-game slide with a 42-17 win over Baylor in Week 12, putting the Bears away with 21 unanswered points in the second half.

Defense was behind Oklahoma’s 31-24 win at BYU, and the defense stepped up at the right time with QB Dillon Gabriel sidelined in the second half due to concussion protocol. However, head coach Brent Venables is optimistic Gabriel will play against TCU.

Texas Christian needs a win to become bowl-eligible, and that incentive should at least help the Horned Frogs stay inside the number.

NCAAF Pick: TCU +12½ (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Toledo Rockets vs. Central Michigan Chippewas

Friday, November 24, 2023 – 12:00 PM ET at Kelly/Shorts Stadium

Toledo has already wrapped up a berth in the MAC Championship, but there’s the business of completing the conference schedule unbeaten still on the line for the Rockets when they visit Central Michigan in Week 13.

Tough Look-Ahead Spot for Rockets

Keeping his team focused on this trip to Mt. Pleasant and not the trip to Detroit to meet Miami-Ohio in two weeks for the MAC title is the toughest job Toledo’s Jason Candle and his staff have this week.

Besides wanting to beat their rival, the Chippewas have another incentive in a victory that would make them bowl-eligible.

Home Teams Have Won Last 5

The Rockets have won 11 of the last 13 matchups against the Chippewas, but both losses have come in their last two trips to Central Michigan. Toledo backers have also gone back to the window to collect 10 of the last 13 clashes. ‘Under’ bettors have also come out ahead with winning tickets in the last four meetings, and seven of the last eight.

Toledo is chalked in the 11-12 range on the NCAAF odds board, with the total running 55½-56. This total is right in line with recent meetings, and the ‘under’ trend is too tough to pass up.

NCAAF Pick: Under 56 (-105) at BetOnline

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Under 56 (-105)
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Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan State Spartans

Friday, November 24, 2023 – 07:30 PM ET at Ford Field

Since Michigan State won’t be going bowling this season, maybe the Spartans can pretend this trip to Detroit to meet Penn State at Ford Field is a consolation prize. Staying inside a huge number against the Nittany Lions would be a major accomplishment for the Spartans who are getting 20 points at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review).

Totals Split Last 6 Matchups

This is the eighth consecutive collision with Penn State for Michigan State to be the underdog, and to the Spartans’ credit, they have managed to pull off outright upsets in three of the previous seven meetings. Last year in Happy Valley was not one of those upsets, as the Nittany Lions just eked out a cover in a 35-16 victory.

It was the Spartans posting the mild upset two years ago in East Lansing. Getting 3½ from the oddsmakers, Michigan State held on for a 30-27 win in the snow.

Spartans Last in B1G in Rushing

Penn State reaches Motown off a 27-6 win over Rutgers. The Nittany Lions scored more than half of their points in the fourth quarter to give the game some semblance of offense.

Michigan State pulled off a 24-21 win at Indiana this past Saturday, scoring with just over a minute left to post the minor upset as a field goal underdog. The triumph came a week after being manhandled by Ohio State.

This is the Big Ten’s best run defense (PSU) against the worst running attack (MSU), and despite the low total, it’s an ‘under’ play for my final Black Friday free pick.

NCAAF Pick: Under 43½ (-115) at BetOnline

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Under 43½ (-115)
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The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.