Top NCAAF Pick: Nebraska +5.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The top offshore sportsbooks have released their odds for this week’s slate of college football games, and three games interest me: Nebraska vs. Wisconsin, Texas vs. Iowa State, and Kentucky vs. South Carolina.
For your NCAAF Week 12 best bets, I will recommend wagering on all three underdogs. Personally, I prefer allocating three-quarters of a unit to the underdog against the spread (ATS) and the remaining quarter to the underdog on the moneyline (ML).
Kentucky Wildcats vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
Saturday, November 18, 2023 – 07:30 PM ET at Williams-Brice Stadium
Kentucky’s Post-Florida Team
I doubt that Kentucky would be favored in this game if it didn’t demolish Florida at home back in September.
Kentucky treats its game against Florida like its own Super Bowl, though, so its performance against the Gators easily leads to a misleadingly positive impression of its capabilities.
Indeed, the Wildcats have proven to be a completely different team against different opponents. Since beating Florida, they are 1-4 SU. They are also 1-4 ATS, showing that oddsmakers do tend to overrate them now.
Kentucky’s Offense
The Wildcats’ top running back, Ray Davis, epitomizes what I am talking about. Take away his performance against non-conference opponents and against Florida, he has 413 rushing yards in Kentucky’s six other SEC games, which amounts to a paltry 68.8 rushing yards per game.
Quarterback Devin Leary likewise struggles to be productive: he has failed to reach 160 passing yards in five of UK’s last six games.
Kentucky Can’t Keep Pace
A Kentucky offense that struggles to generate much production will fail to keep pace with the Gamecocks. They love to pass the ball, ranking sixteenth nationally in pass rate.
Their offense will be comfortable because it will do what it wants against a Kentucky pass defense that ranks 84th nationally. Even third-and-long situations repeatedly prove too difficult for the Wildcats’ pass defense.
Kentucky’s defensive coordinator is rather clueless as to how to generate a pass rush and organize his secondary. The talent of previous Kentucky teams is also not there anymore.
For South Carolina, quarterback Spencer Rattler is steadily efficient and ably amasses a lot of yards, in the process of which he makes all sorts of difficult plays look easy.
With Rattler, the Gamecocks are especially dangerous at home, where they’ve scored 37 or more points in all their games, whereas post-Florida Kentucky struggles to reach 20.
NCAAF Pick: South Carolina ML (+100) at BetOnline
NCAAF Pick: South Carolina +1.5 (-115) at BetOnline
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Saturday, November 18, 2023 – 07:30 PM ET at Camp Randall Stadium
Wisconsin’s Low-Scoring Offense
I am only half-joking when I say that Nebraska could score three points and still cover the spread. The Badgers are consistently deficient on offense: they have scored ten points in each of their last three games, which came at home to Ohio State, at Indiana, and at home to Northwestern.
While Northwestern and Ohio State are ranked highly defensively, the Hoosiers rank 111th in total defense, eliminating the excuse that the Badgers are struggling to score merely because they are facing strong competition.
This excuse would anyhow be fruitless as a means of defending Wisconsin’s outlook in this Saturday’s game because the Cornhuskers themselves are strong defensively: they rank 14th in total defense.
The Badgers’ lack of scoring could be explained by a lack of talent or by their need to adjust to a radically new offensive system.
Nebraska’s Offense
It is unclear who will start at quarterback for the Cornhuskers. But no matter who it is, it will be someone capable of rushing for 100+ yards in any given game.
The mobility of Nebraska’s quarterbacks will be effective against a Wisconsin defense that, for example, surrendered 100 rushing yards on 14 carries to Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer.
Passing-wise, quarterbacks are consistently efficient against the Badgers.
A simple pass attack focused on avoiding too many turnovers is all Nebraska needs to complement the developing freshman Emmett Johnson, who is now averaging 5.1 YPC and who will use his efficiency to help Nebraska sustain drives against a Wisconsin defense that will be on the field a lot.
NCAAF Pick: Nebraska +5.5 (-110) at BetOnline
NCAAF Pick: Nebraska ML (+195) at BetOnline
Texas Longhorns vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Saturday, November 18, 2023 – 08:00 PM ET at Jack Trice Stadium
Limiting Xavier Worthy
It is not a coincidence that TCU’s second-half comeback last week against Texas coincides with Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy’s decline in production — Worthy inflicted nearly all of his damage in the first half.
As Texas’ top wide receiver and one of the Big 12’s leading pass-catchers, Worthy is an important player for a defense to stop. This is especially true against an Iowa State team that ranks third in run defense among Big 12 teams.
Iowa State’s Secondary
Iowa State’s resume against the Big 12’s other leading wide receivers elicits optimism. Oklahoma’s Drake Stoops had his second-lowest receiving total of the season against Iowa State.
While Baylor’s Monaray Baldwin produced a stat-line that looks nice on paper, he never really posed a threat outside of one big play.
Especially with Jeremiah Cooper back, Iowa State has the personnel with which to limit the Longhorns’ top receivers. The defensive back has earned All-Big 12 Honorable Mention and Defensive Freshman of the Year awards.
Rocco Becht’s Significance
Texas’ weakness on defense is in its secondary. The way to score a lot on Texas is to pass effectively, which, as the Oklahoma game shows, will then open up the run.
Cyclones quarterback Rocco Becht’s season stats create a misleadingly lackluster impression of him because they are distorted by his problematic start to the season. But Becht is a freshman, so the potential to grow and develop a lot this season was always high.
He has fixed his interception problem and rarely makes mistakes in general — when he does, he doesn’t let them affect his play, because he easily remains composed.
Overall, he’s been more efficient, as he plays within himself and as his offensive coordinator suits the offense to his capabilities. His improvement is a big reason why the Cyclones have attained their highest or tied for second-highest point totals in three of their last four games.
Given Becht’s development, and in view of what the likes of TCU’s own freshman quarterback could achieve last week, Becht certainly looks the part of a quarterback who will pose a major threat to Texas’ secondary.
NCAAF Pick: Iowa State ML (+250) at BetOnline
NCAAF Pick: Iowa State +7.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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