Top NCAAF Pick: Miami (FL) +1 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The college football season is nearing its end as we are in Week 12, and we are here with three last-minute value bets for Saturday.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, many of which are underdogs. All three of our best bets are value dogs as of this writing, and the action starts early with two 12 Noon ET kickoffs.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Army Black Knights
Saturday, November 18, 2023 – 12:00 PM ET at Michie Stadium
We are looking for Army and its triple option to pull the outright upset Saturday over a potentially disinterested Coastal Carolina team that struggles vs. the run, so take the points at West Point.
What Motivation?
This non-conference affair is basically meaningless to the Chanticleers, who at 7-3 play their Game of the Year next week vs. undefeated Sun Belt powerhouse James Madison. With that in mind, there is no reason to rush star quarterback Grayson McCall back even though he has been cleared following a concussion, and with backup Jarrett Guest also injured, Coastal may again turn to third-string Ethan Vasko, who started last week.
Thus, the Chanticleers could easily look past Army and use at least part of this week to early gameplan for Madison, which could have disastrous results vs. a triple-option offense that they never face. And Coastal has had enough trouble even vs. conventional rushing offenses, ranking 71st in the country in rushing defense permitting 150.4 yards per game on the ground.
One-Dimensional Offensive
While the Black Knights run the triple-option, it has mainly been a double-option with the pass rarely used, as Army is fourth in the country in rushing attempts per game at 46.5 and 132nd in passing attempts at 14.8, with the end result being a 24th ranking in rushing offense with 193.8 yards per game.
Granted the Knights are averaging an ordinary 4.2 yards per rush but given Coastal’s struggles vs. the run and their potential lack of preparation for an offense they are unfamiliar with, that may be enough for the Army to play keep-away and control the clock with sustained drives.
All in all, this is a horrible scheduling spot that means nothing to Coastal Carolina, so we look for the Army to take advantage with an upset, although our official bet is taking the points.
Predicted Score: Army 24 – Coastal Carolina 17
NCAAF Pick: Army +4.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Louisville Cardinals vs. Miami (FL) Hurricanes
Saturday, November 18, 2023 – 12:00 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium
In another early High Noon start, we are looking for Miami to pull a mild upset (as of now at +1 at some spots) over what we feel is an overrated Louisville team that is fortunate to be 9-1.
Paper Cardinals?
The Cardinals are flying high at 9-1, but they have also been one of the luckiest teams in the country when looking at their wins. Their best win on paper was probably vs. Notre Dame, but that was a brutal scheduling spot for an Irish team coming off back-to-back tight battles vs. ranked teams and also dealing with injuries at wide receiver.
Besides that, Louisville has four one-possession wins vs. mediocre competition (NC State, Virginia, Indiana, Georgia Tech), with three of those teams sporting losing records at the time and firing a coordinator after facing the Cardinals. Also, another win came vs. a Duke team with a hobbled quarterback and the Cards’ last road game was their only loss in ugly fashion 38-21 to a sub-par Pittsburgh team.
Top 10 Talent
Meanwhile, the Hurricanes are 6-4 while in our opinion having the physical talent to be a top 10 team. Unfortunately, poor coaching cost the team two wins vs. Georgia Tech and NC State. Yes, they deserved to lose at North Carolina, but Miami was very game last week vs. fourth-ranked and 10-0 Florida State, giving the Noles all they could handle before falling 27-20 in Tallahassee.
They now return home and the fact that this line is close to a pick’em shows that the oddsmakers agree with our assessment that not much separates these teams talent wise despite their records. Also, while quarterback Tyler van Dyke has been erratic, we feel this is a nice matchup for him and his talented group of receivers vs. a Louisville pass defense ranked 101st in yards per completion allowed at 12.7.
We think that the passing matchup as well as the superior special teams in this contest will lead to Miami handing Louisville its second loss.
Predicted Score: Miami (FL) 28 – Louisville 20
NCAAF Pick: Miami (FL) +1 (-110) at Bovada
Florida Gators vs. Missouri Tigers
Saturday, November 18, 2023 – 07:30 PM ET at Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field
Our third selection comes under the lights, and this line seems quite skewed after Missouri pummeled Tennessee last week, so we are taking the double-digit points with Florida in a game we see much closer than that.
Overvalued Tigers?
To put this line in context, consider that Missouri closed +2.5 at home last week before beating Tennessee 36-7. Well, Florida also beat Tennessee at home earlier this season 29-16, and the Gators closed +4.5 in that game. That extrapolates to Missouri -2 on a neutral field, so -11 at Columbia seems like an overadjustment after one blowout.
Also, this looks like a prime letdown spot for the Tigers, who played top-ranked Georgia tough in a 30-21 loss two weeks ago before upsetting another ranked team in the Volunteers last week. And let us not forget that while star wide receiver Luther Burden III is probable, he did not look fully healthy last week while catching just four passes for 28 yards.
Tough Schedule
Yes, the Gators have dropped three straight games to fall to 5-5, but they have faced a tough schedule with four of their five losses being to ranked teams. More importantly. Florida matches up well stylistically with Missouri, which ranks a stout 21st in the land in rushing defense but is only 77th against the pass and could be without injured linebacker Chad Bailey.
That is an area quarterback Graham Mertz can exploit as he is third in the country in completion percentage at 73.2% while passing for nearly 2700 yards so far with 18 touchdown passes vs. just two interceptions, with the help of star wide receiver Ricky Pearsall and his fat 14.4 yards per reception and a fine receiving tight end in Arlis Boardingham.
We feel that Florida will generate enough points through the air to stay inside this big number, especially if Missouri lets down a bit after two huge matchups in the last two weeks.
Predicted Score: Missouri 31 – Florida 27
NCAAF Pick: Florida +11 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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