Top NCAAF Pick: North Carolina +10½ (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The online betting sites post early NCAAF odds for a reason and we like to see where the lines go so that we can take advantage of underdogs getting too many points or favorites laying too few.
In last week’s Week 11, we connected with a big favorite as Oregon State crushed Stanford, 62-17, easily covering as 21-point home favorites. So, now let’s scour the board again this week and find the loosest lines at the best offshore sportsbooks and make some more money in college football!
Washington Huskies vs. Oregon State Beavers
Saturday, November 18, 2023 – 07:30 PM ET at Reser Stadium
Key Facts
- Oregon State is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games.
- Oregon State is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games played in Week 12.
- Washington is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Oregon State.
There’s an old saying that if you torture the numbers long enough, they’ll confess to just about anything. I thought of that after realizing Washington has defeated Oregon State in 9 of their last 10 meetings. But then I read another stat that is even more relevant to what we’re trying to do – which is to win money by having our teams cover the spread – and that was Oregon State is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings versus Washington.
Washington may be undefeated but their schedule has been rather soft. The Huskies’ best win of the season was a 36-33 shootout at home against Oregon over a month ago. But they are 1-2 ATS over their last three road games and that one ATS cover came against an anemic USC defense in which the Beavers prevailed, 52-42.
Oregon State has a much more balanced attack and a far better defense. Of course, they won’t win a passing contest as Michael Penix Jr. commands the No. 1 aerial attack in the nation. But on the flip side of that equation, this Huskies’ pass defense doesn’t hunt as they surrender nearly 261 passing yards per game (122nd) and Oregon State averages 241 passing yards per game but also has a stout run game behind it.
The Pick
Give me the +3 with the more balanced home squad and the No. 10 team in the nation – the Oregon State Beavers!
NCAAF Pick: Oregon State +3 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Baylor Bears vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Saturday, November 18, 2023 – 03:30 PM ET at Amon G. Carter Stadium
Key Facts
- TCU has won 7 of the last 8 meetings against Baylor.
- TCU is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing at home against Baylor.
- Baylor is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games against TCU.
What a precipitous fall from grace this season has been for TCU. After landing in the CFP last season as the No. 4 seed and upsetting Michigan in the semifinal game, only to get curb-stomped by Georgia in the national championship game, expectations were high, albeit tempered, entering this year.
But the Horned Frogs have been croaked – if you’ll pardon the pun – throughout the year by opponents they were expected to beat. Nevertheless, they did show an awful lot of grit last week in their 29-26 loss to No. 6 Texas and easily covered as 13-point road dogs.
On the other hand, if you think TCU has had it rough, Baylor has been a trainwreck. Aside from a shocking 36-35 win over UCF as 7 ½ point road dogs, the Bears have been a mess with a 2-8 ATS record. And let’s understand that the upset occurred at the end of September, whereas, last week the Bears got mauled, 59-25, by Kansas State.
The Pick
I don’t know how long this -3½ will last over at BetOnline but it’s staring me right in the face on Sunday afternoon and I’m grabbing it.
NCAAF Pick: TCU -3½ (-110) at BetOnline
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Clemson Tigers
Saturday, November 18, 2023 – 03:30 PM ET at Memorial Stadium
Key Facts
- North Carolina is 7-1 SU in their last 8 games on the road.
- North Carolina is 8-2 SU in their last 10 games.
- North Carolina is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games against an ACC opponent.
I know it’s early in the week and perhaps I’m missing a key injury on the North Carolina side of things but I see the oddsmakers giving the No. 24 ranked team in the nation, North Carolina, a 10 ½ point head start as they take on ACC rival, Clemson, in Death Valley.
I’m not sure if the public has gotten the word but this Clemson iteration is a far cry from its championship form of a few years ago. The Tigers are 6-4 straight-up and 4-6 against the number this season.
Yet, the oddsmakers are under the impression the public isn’t aware of this and will blindly back Clemson because the squares haven’t found out that the Tigers are simply a little bit better than average.
The Pick
We should also note that the Tar Heels have Drake Maye pulling the trigger, a young man who could very well be the top pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Grab each and every point and bet the Heels +10½.
NCAAF Pick: North Carolina +10½ (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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