College Football Week 0 Early Value Bets: Football Is Back!

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Quarterback Caleb Williams #13 of the USC Trojans talks with head coach Lincoln Riley during the game against the Tulane Green Wave in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic on January 2, 2023. Ron Jenkins/Getty Images/AFP

NCAAF Pick: USC -30 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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USC -30 (-108)
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The college football season is ready to kick and despite the short slate that Week 0 tends to be we’ve got three early value best bets where we can snipe the lines that look too good to ignore. 

On top of that, we’re getting a great price in the two games with ranked teams, as both Notre Dame (#13) and USC (#6) will get an early start to their season.

Let’s break down the NCAAF odds for Week 0 and make some money. 

Key Facts

  • Navy is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. 
  • New Mexico State is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
  • San Jose State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Pac-12.

San Jose State Spartans vs. USC Trojans

Saturday, August 26, 2023 – 08:00 PM EDT at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

This is a rematch of the Trojans’ home opener two years ago when they welcomed San Jose State into the LA Coliseum and swiftly gave the Spartans a lesson in what it is to play a big-time college football power when they dispatched them, 30-7, and easily covered the 13½ point spread.  

The Trojans made a quantum leap in their first year under head coach Lincoln Riley and his protégé, Caleb Williams, last year’s Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback. If you don’t recall, USC went from a 4-8 Pac-12 also-ran to an 11-3 powerhouse that struggled down the stretch. 

Start With A Bang

Now they have caught national attention entering this season and realize that if they want to improve upon their No. 6 ranking and inch their way into the CFP conversation then merely beating weak teams like San Jose State isn’t enough. USC needs to make a statement and what better way to flex than in the opening game of their season in which they have all the pieces of the puzzle to win their conference and, perhaps, a national championship.  

Lay it and like it with the Trojans. 

NCAAF Pick: USC -30 (-108) at Heritage Sports

Massachusetts Minutemen vs. New Mexico State Aggies 

Saturday, August 26, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at Aggie Memorial Stadium

It is important to understand just how bad this U-Mass football program has been over the last four seasons – not that they were much better before that as their last winning season came in 2010 when they went 6-5.

Over the last four seasons, the Minutemen are 3-37 straight up, including their 0-4 record during the abbreviated 2020 Covid-ravaged season. And although New Mexico State is far from a powerhouse, they did have their best season in years under new head coach Jerry Kill, in which they wound up with a 7-6 record including a 24-19 victory over Bowling Green in the Quick Lane Bowl.  

Joes vs. Pros

The line opened with New Mexico State -11 but that number has tumbled already to where the Aggies are now as low as -7 ½ point favorites. We should also note that U-Mass only scored 20 points or more twice last season and they haven’t beaten an FBS team on the road in six years.  

The Minutemen made the jump to the FBS back in 2012 but have continued to play like an FCS squad. Let’s not overthink it, bet it, the New Mexico State Aggies at a bargain basement line of -7 ½. But buy the hook to -7 if you like. 

NCAAF Pick: New Mexico State -7½ (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Navy Midshipmen vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Saturday, August 26, 2023 – 02:30 PM EDT at Aviva Stadium

There are two facts to remember when considering this game to include in your NCAAF picks this weekend. The first of which is that Notre Dame is a public team and far more recognizable than Navy. Most casual fans only realize Navy has a football team when they play Army in their annual clash of military academies. 

The top offshore sportsbooks know this, and they will initially inflate the line to account for Joe Q. Public blindly betting on the Golden Domers, regardless of the spread. This creates early value for those who want to pounce because once the sharps and their followers begin to sniff this bargain, the line will likely plummet.

The Second Thing

And the second thing you need to know is that this game is not taking place in South Bend, despite the fact that Notre Dame is on the right side of the “vs.” indicating the home team. No, this game is being played in Dublin, Ireland and it will be a long plane ride for both teams so don’t think there won’t be a touch of jet lag on both sides.

Let’s watch the Midshipmen keep this game within the margins as they did last season when they easily covered the 17-point impost in their 35-32 loss.  

NCAAF Pick: Navy +20½ (-110) at BetAnySports (visit our BetAnySports Review)

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 *The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product