Top NCAAF Pick: Louisville +2.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Our main offshore sportsbooks have released their odds for this week’s slate of college football games. One game interests me: the ACC Championship between Louisville and Florida State.
For your best bets, you should invest in Louisville to pull off the upset.
Louisville Cardinals vs. Florida State Seminoles
Saturday, December 02, 2023 – 08:00 PM ET at Bank of America Stadium
The Question of Louisville’s Defense
For this matchup, any argument in favor of Florida State is going to rely on criticizing the quality of Louisville’s defense.
Let’s state the case for the Seminoles fairly: in Louisville’s last three games, the Cardinals allowed 24 points to Virginia, 31 points to Miami, and 38 points to Kentucky. From a superficial look at the schedule, it sure looks like the Cardinals are susceptible to allowing a lot of points.
A Bit Misleading
This picture of a declining Louisville defense is a bit misleading, though.
While the Cardinals allowed 38 points in their last game to Kentucky, the Wildcats only mustered 289 total yards of offense.
Highlight reels will show Kentucky running back Ray Davis’ one good run and the rare dimes that Kentucky quarterback Devin Leary managed as part of an otherwise inefficient output. But the reality is that Kentucky’s offense was not so good. The Wildcats benefited rather from turnovers that Louisville committed, although the Cardinals typically play much cleaner football.
Louisville’s Defensive Weakness
On defense, the Cardinals have been weakest at the cornerback position, where they have allowed opposing quarterbacks to achieve too much production.
The three opposing quarterbacks whom they last faced were Anthony Colandrea for Virginia, Tyler Van Dyke for Miami, and Devin Leary for Kentucky.
While it is true that these quarterbacks aren’t going to be first-rounders in next year’s NFL Draft, the fact is that it would be erroneous to derive optimism in favor of Florida State’s pass attack on the basis of the strong outputs of these three quarterbacks against the Cardinals’ defense.
Colandrea, for Virginia, was also strong against Duke in his team’s upset win. Van Dyke and Leary are even more established quarterbacks who can point to other high-yardage and productive outings, although it really must be said that, against Louisville, Leary suffered a 54% completion rate, relying on his strong passer rating on dimes that he does not usually make.
Florida State’s Quarterback
With Jordan Travis injured, Tate Rodemaker is Florida State’s new starting quarterback. Against Florida, he was 12-for-25 with 135 yards. Clearly, his performance was pedestrian.
Florida State is favored because it’s an undefeated team, largely because of its previous starting quarterback. Although with Rodemaker, the Seminoles’ offense is radically weaker. Against a Gators team that ranks 89th in scoring defense, the Seminoles only exceeded 20 points with the help of an avoidable targeting foul from Florida.
Seminoles Rush Attack
To exceed 20 points, the Seminoles also counted on 95 rushing yards from running back Trey Benson. They say that a running back is a quarterback’s best friend because he limits the defense’s ability to focus on stopping the quarterback’s pass attack. But Rodemaker won’t be able to count on Benson again.
Whereas the Gators rank 85th nationally in run defense, Louisville ranks tenth nationally in the category. With linebackers who are well-trained to fill gaps, the Cardinals excel at preventing opposing rush production and opposing rush efficiency.
Seminoles backers will try to make everything out of the two big runs that Louisville allowed in its past two games. But given Rodemaker’s impotence, the Seminoles would need a lot of big runs.
The fact remains that, on the season, the Cardinals rank 16th in 3.3 YPC because, while they allow the occasional nice run like every other team in the nation does, they are overall solid against the run, especially when they don’t have to worry about the opposing quarterback’s downfield throwing ability.
Louisville’s Offense
The Cardinals won’t need to score a lot to win, yet they do boast a high-powered offense that averages just over 30 points per game. They boast two running backs who average over six YPC and a senior quarterback who, well-composed for the big stage, is regularly efficient and productive.
Florida State’s Problematic Run Defense
Last week, Florida mirrored Miami in being able against Florida State to count on running the ball a lot without relying on its backup quarterback. Florida State could not stop the Gators’ rush attack behind the line of scrimmage. On the contrary, their top two running backs combined for 150 rushing yards.
Louisville has a one-two combo of its own in Jawhar Jordan and Isaac Guerendo. Jordan, for example, will use his quickness to burst through open holes, though he’ll also beat defenders to race down the sideline. Physically, he’s also a tough runner who will keep a pile moving forward.
Florida State will especially be in trouble for having to worry also about Jack Plummer and the Cardinals’ well-established pass attack. Jamari Thrash is one of the ACC’s leading receivers, and yet the Cardinals have nice depth at wide receiver, too.
With all of these weapons, Louisville will score much more easily than Florida State.
NCAAF Pick: Louisville +2.5 (-110) at BetOnline
NCAAF Pick: Louisville ML (+111) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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