NCAAF Pick: Georgia-Alabama Over 55 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We have reached Championship Week of the 2023 College Football season, and we have three last-minute value bets for Saturday.
We have no underdogs this week, but we do have one value favorite as well as two value totals.
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Toledo Rockets
Saturday, December 02, 2023 – 12:00 PM ET at Bob Ford Field at Tom & Mary Casey Stadium
Toledo is two points away from being undefeated this season and we are expecting a handy win over a Miami team playing with a struggling backup quarterback.
Ran MAC Table
The Rockets opened the season with a narrow 30-28 road loss at Illinois and have since run the table winning 11 straight games (8-0 in MAC), a streak that includes a 21-17 road win over these RedHawks in Week 8. Toledo is well-balanced, ranking 32nd in the nation in total offense led by the best quarterback in the MAC in DeQuan Finn, as well as 33rd in the country in total defense.
Finn led the MAC with his 21 touchdown passes, and those came vs. just eight interceptions as he completed 65.1% of his passes. The Rockets are not one-dimensional, however, as they also ranked eighth in the country in rushing offense with a whopping 212.6 yards per game on the ground, making this a very difficult team to defend.
Lost Quarterback
Now to their credit, the RedHawks did go 10-2 overall and 7-1 inside the MAC with the Toledo defeat being their only conference loss. However, perhaps the biggest storyline for this game is Miami losing quarterback Brett Gabbert for the season during the Toledo loss. To put that injury in perspective, Gabbert finished second in the MAC in touchdown passes with 14 despite missing the last four games.
Granted, Miami won the last four games without Gabbert, but all four wins were vs. MAC bottom-dwellers and came with little to no help from backup quarterback Aveon Smith. Smith completed a weak 52.5% of his passes despite not throwing downfield very often, averaging just 6.0 yards per attempt, and he had just two touchdown passes and two interceptions.
Those numbers just won’t do with this steep rise in competition, so lay the points with a Toledo team owning a humongous quarterback advantage.
Predicted Score: Toledo 28 – Miami Ohio 14
NCAAF Pick: Toledo -7.5 (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Boise State Broncos vs. UNLV Rebels
Saturday, December 02, 2023 – 03:00 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
In a matchup of two teams with good offenses and substandard defenses, we are betting the Over when Boise State takes on UNLV for the Mountain West Championship.
Pleasant Surprise
Preseason expectations were low for UNLV, but they surprised by going 9-3 with new head coach Barry Odom striking gold by naming Brennan Marion as offensive coordinator. Marion implemented the so-called GoGo offense, which has at least three players in the backfield, forcing opposing defenses to crowd the box by setting up one-on-one opportunities on the outside.
The end result was an unexpected 35.5 points on 424.3 total yards of offense per game. However, the news were not as bright on the defensive end, where the Rebels allowed 391.6 yards per game, and they were especially soft vs. the run allowing a bloated 5.9 YPC, ranking 92nd nationally.
2-0 Since Firing Coach
Boise State sat at just 5-5 after 10 games when they fired coach Andy Avalos, and they have promptly gone 2-0 under interim coach Spencer Danielson while dominating in the running game, averaging 266.5 rushing yards in the two wins. The Broncos’ backfield duo of George Holani and Ashton Jeanty must be salivating at the prospect of going up against the porous UNLV run defense.
But just like UNLV, the Boise State defense has lagged behind its offense ranking 117th in passing defense. And that now gets compounded going up against a GoGo offense where their secondary is forced into one-on-one coverage. Furthermore, the run defense is actually worse than UNLV in terms of YPC allowed at 6.0, ranking 98th nationally.
So it seems everything lines up for both teams to have offensive success, which has us betting the Over on Saturday.
Predicted Score: Boise State 38 – UNLV 35
NCAAF Pick: Over 59 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Saturday, December 02, 2023 – 04:00 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Look for lots of offense and a safe Over in the SEC Championship Game with Georgia taking on Alabama.
Unstoppable Offense
The Georgia offense had its stride once the calendar flipped to October, as in seven games since then, the Bulldogs have scored at least 30 points in every game, with one game in the 40s and two games in the 50s. They are led by quarterback Carson Beck, who has completed an impressive 72.4% of his passes while throwing for 3495 yards on 9.0 yards per attempt, with 22 touchdown passes and just six interceptions.
However, while the national champion Georgia lineups of the last two seasons both had elite defenses, that side of the ball has taken a hit this year. This is especially true when looking at advanced metrics, as the Bulldogs have taken a major dip in Success Rate against the run, and they are now outside of the Top 50 nationally in Havoc.
Improved Quarterback Play
Since being named the full-time starter, Jalen Milroe has developed into one of the better downfield passers in all of college football. In fact, Milroe has thrown just one interception on pass attempts over 20 yards with 15 touchdown passes on such throws, and advanced metrics show him with 23 big-time throws and no turnover-worthy plays on explosive pass attempts.
The Alabama defense has been terrific, but they are now facing probably the hottest offense in the country. Probably the closest offense the Crimson Tide have faced to Georgia caliber was Texas, who oh by the way handed Alabama its only loss while putting up 34 points in Tuscaloosa.
So, with all due respect to that Alabama defense, we do not expect them to slow the Georgia offense much, thus expecting points abound on each side for an Over.
Predicted Score: Georgia 38 – Alabama 34
NCAAF Pick: Over 55 (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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