It’s Championship Week! Here are three bets that the AI Model likes for some of the most exciting conference championship games on the slate. Explore the dynamic shifts in betting lines and odds offered by our leading offshore sportsbooks.
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Texas Longhorns
Saturday, December 02, 2023 – 12:00 PM ET at AT&T Stadium
Unveiling the Championship Thriller
Our AI Model likes the Texas Longhorns at -14 in the Big 12 Championship game. The Longhorns are projected to win 39-19 via the AI Model, which is a 20-point win as 14-point favorites. Oklahoma State lost to South Alabama a few weeks into the season in a buy-game. At that point, no one expected the Cowboys to be in this position to win the Big 12.
The Cowboys are not in the title game because of their quarterback. They’re in it because of running back Ollie Gordon II, who has rushed for 1,580 yards and 20 touchdowns this season. But even with Gordon II’s running ability, the Longhorns have still averaged more rushing yards than the Cowboys.
Texas no longer has lead rusher Jonathon Brooks. He’s out for the season with an injury. Therefore, they’re relying on CJ Baxter, who has earned 4.8 yards per carry throughout the season.
With the Cowboys allowing 172 yards a game on the ground, the Longhorns will have their way rushing the football. They’ll also be fine throwing it with Quinn Ewers leading the charge. Ewers missed some time in the middle of the season, but he’s played three straight games and looks fully healthy heading into this one. Ewers has added 17 passing touchdowns with only five interceptions.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma State’s defense has allowed 27.33 points per game. They’ve got a differential of 2.84 between offense and defense. Texas has a 17.83-point differential between offense and defense.
The Cowboys have won seven of their last eight games. But they haven’t played Texas. The Longhorns are the best team in the Big 12, and they’ll prove it on Saturday. Take the Longhorns at -14.
Boise State Broncos vs. UNLV Rebels
Saturday, December 02, 2023 – 03:00 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
UNLV Poised for Upset Against Boise State
Our AI Model believes UNLV will earn a 33-27 win over Boise State on Saturday. However, UNLV is a 3-point underdog. The value isn’t on the spread. It’s on the moneyline for UNLV!
The Mountain West Championship will feature Boise State and UNLV. The Boise State Broncos have only earned seven wins this season. But they’re playing for a championship in the Mountain West.
These two teams are very even. UNLV’s defense has been better, while Boise State’s run game has looked really good. The Broncos have added 32 points per game but have allowed 25.25 points. UNLV has scored 35.5 points but has given up 25.58 per matchup.
Neither team has been sensational this year. However, I still think UNLV’s run defense is underrated. The Rebels have allowed over 151.83 yards per game on the ground. But don’t get it twisted. This UNLV-run defense is still one of the best in the Mountain West. They’re strong up front and continue to convert on most tackles.
Boise State hasn’t. The Broncos miss many tackles and don’t have a fundamentally sound pass rush. The Broncos have allowed over 235 yards in the air and another 127.17 yards on the ground. They’re also playing with Taylen Green at quarterback, who has a 58.7 QBR with nine touchdowns thrown and eight interceptions.
Meanwhile, Jayden Maiava of UNLV has a QBR of 64.1 with 14 touchdowns and six interceptions. He’s been better at protecting the ball and should have time in the pocket to find receivers against a weak Boise State defense.
Give me UNLV to win the Mountain West and pull off the upset outright. After all, Boise State only has seven wins this season.
SMU Mustangs vs. Tulane Green Wave
Saturday, December 02, 2023 – 04:00 PM ET at Yulman Stadium
Mustangs Projected to Soar
The AI Model suggests taking the SMU Mustangs at +4. The AI Model’s projections have SMU earning a seven-point win over the Green Wave in Saturday’s AAC Championship.
Tulane has one less loss. But analytically, the Mustangs have the edge.
SMU has scored nearly 42 points per game while holding teams to 17.67 points. The offense is led by Preston Stone, who has thrown for nearly 3,200 yards with 28 touchdowns and six interceptions. His play has gone under the radar this season. His QBR of 71.2 is 32nd in the nation.
While the passing game averaged 285 yards per game, SMU also added over 180 yards on the ground per game. Jaylan Knighton averaged 5.7 yards a carry on 113 attempts. He also added six touchdowns this season.
Tulane’s been great against the run this year, holding opponents to 86 yards a game. However, the tacking has been poor, and the secondary and pass rush don’t compare to SMU’s pass defense. The Mustangs have allowed only 165.83 yards per game in the air and have held teams to below 120 yards on the ground.
Tulane’s good at limiting turnovers behind Michael Pratt. He’s only thrown four interceptions this year. But he’s playing behind a much worse pass-protection unit.
SMU’s defense should shine bright against Tulane. I love this projection for SMU to earn a win as underdogs. I’ll stick to the points with the Mustangs, but don’t be afraid to sprinkle some money on the moneyline for the Mustangs too.
NCAAF Pick: SMU +4 (-110) at BetAnySports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.