Top NCAAB Pick: San Diego +14 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We have another nice NCAA Basketball card on Thursday. After going 5-1 in this space the last two nights, we are back again with three more best bets for tonight’s slate.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences. We have one such mid-major best bet Thursday, although it is a nationally televised battle between Saint Mary’s and San Diego, as well as two marquee Pac 12 clashes.
Let’s dive into the analysis and see what our best options are for tonight’s action at the main offshore sportsbooks!
Oregon Ducks vs. Washington Huskies
Thursday, January 04, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Alaska Airlines Arena
Oregon has started 2-0 in Pac-12 play while Washington has started 0-2. This time, we are betting on a correction and backing the Huskies to get the cover at home over the outsized Ducks.
Big Men Out
The Ducks are continuing to play very small right now with their two main big men, 7’0” Nate Bittle and 6’11” N’Faly Dante both out with injuries. Yet, Oregon has managed to go 10-3 with two conference opening wins over USC and UCLA. It bears mentioning though that both conference wins were at home and that the Ducks have played just one true road game all year thus far.
That roadie was a non-threatening one against a Florida A&M team ranked 331st on Kenpom. Tonight’s environment will be much more hostile. The Ducks have four wins over the Kenpom Top 100, but all were against the bottom half with the best win coming against 59th-ranked Michigan. Also, none were obviously on the road, and they are now traveling to face a 48th-ranked Washington team.
Home Sweet Home
The Huskies are 8-5, yet are ranked five spots higher than 53rd-ranked Oregon. They will also relish returning home after opening conference play with road losses at Colorado and Utah. Although Washington did go 2-0 ATS in those games losing by just four and five points respectively. And they easily own the two best wins between these teams, beating 29th-ranked Gonzaga and #41 Xavier.
The Huskies are well-balanced, ranking 49th in offensive efficiency and 59th in defensive efficiency. They are also above average in eFG% at 52.2% (national average 50.0%). They are as well a good offensive-rebounding team at 30.4% (national average 29.6%) and should be able to take advantage of Oregon’s lack of size.
The Pick
This line may be a bit delated after Washington’s two road conference losses and Oregon’s two home conference wins. So with the Huskies now home for this matchup, we will buy low and give the modest points.
Predicted Score: Washington 85 – Oregon 75
NCAAB Pick: Washington -4.5 (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Colorado Buffaloes vs. Arizona Wildcats
Thursday, January 04, 2024 – 09:30 PM ET at McKale Center
Arizona has lost three of their last five games with legitimate concerns defensively. We are taking the double-digit points with a very good Colorado team on the road Thursday.
Weak Perimeter Defense Fatal?
Now, make no mistake: the 10-3 Wildcats are still national championship contenders ranked third overall on Kenpom. Meanwhile, they’re also ranking an identical seventh in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Still, it is hard to ignore that in their three losses since their 8-0 start. The Wildcats surrendered 92, 96 and 100 points respectively, allowing that C-Note to a mediocre Stanford team.
We have pointed out in past write-ups that, while Arizona has been inside the top 10 in defensive efficiency all season, that has been mainly fueled by being a great defensive rebounding team, where they are currently fourth. However, the Wildcats are only 144th in eFG% allowed and 222nd in 3-point defense, and that has been a fatal flaw during this 2-3 stretch.
Great Shooting Team
Meanwhile, Colorado has now climbed to 22nd on Kenpom, and in fact, owns the better record here at 11-2. And while the Buffaloes have yet to beat a team of Arizona’s caliber, they do have three Top 50 wins, including both opening Pac-12 triumphs against Washington and Washington State. Most importantly, the Buffs are built to take advantage of what has been a shaky Arizona perimeter defense.
That is because Colorado is ranked 10th in the land in eFG%, thanks to hitting 56.4% of their 2-point shots and, more critically for this matchup, ranking seventh in 3-point shooting at a blazing 40.8%. Keep in mind that Arizona just allowed Stanford to shoot 16-for-25, 64.0% from beyond the arc Sunday. So imagine what the Buffaloes can do.
The Pick
While we still expect Arizona to prevail outright at home in bounce-back mode, we think this is way too many points to give a great-shooting team like Colorado given the Wildcats’ recent defensive issues. Take the generous points here.
Predicted Score: Arizona 86 – Colorado 82
NCAAB Pick: Colorado +11 (-107) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. San Diego Toreros
Thursday, January 04, 2024 – 11:00 PM ET at Jenny Craig Pavilion
We conclude our Thursday best bets with some televised late-night West Coast Conference action. We think Saint Mary’s will have too much trouble scoring enough points to cover double-digits, making San Diego the bet at home for this matchup.
Slow Pace, Bad Shooting
The Gaels come in at 9-6 and ranked 46th on Kenpom. They are an elite defensive team ranking 11th in efficiency and 12th in eFG% allowed. However, Saint Mary’s combines two factors that you never want to see in a 14 or so-point favorite:
- They play slowly.
- They do not shoot the ball well.
Now there is slow and there is glacial. The Gaels may be categorized as the latter. There are 362 teams in Division I this season, and SMC is ranked 359th in average possession length and 353rd in Tempo Rating. And yet, for an offense so methodical, they are still not getting great looks ranking 243rd in eFG%. This is clearly a team that wins with great defense and very little else.
Just Get to or Near 60
San Diego enters with the better record at 10-5. Yet they are a dismal 221st on Kenpom as none of the 10 wins have come against a team ranked higher than 173rd and they have a bad home loss to 196th-ranked Fresno State. Still, given Saint Mary’s difficulties on offense, the Toreros may only need to approach or reach 60 points to hang inside of 14 points here.
So, can they do that? Well, the fewest points San Diego has scored in any game this season is 63, so that is a good start. Yes, we have already mentioned the ridiculously easy schedule, but even in blowout losses to the only two Top 100 teams they faced, the Toreros scored 64 against Stanford and 81 vs. Utah State.
The Pick
While we get that Saint Mary’s will be the best defense San Diego has faced all season, we are still betting on the Toreros to put up enough points to not get blown away by such an offensively challenged team.
Predicted Score: Saint Mary’s 66 – San Diego 59
NCAAB Pick: San Diego +14 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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