Top NCAAB Pick: Syracuse -13.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
There are six games on the main NCAA Basketball board on Wednesday and six more Added Games, and we are here with our three best bets for the evening.
These bets are value bets based on our proprietary model, many of which are underdogs. While we have no value dogs for Wednesday, we do have a very rare double-digit value favorite as well as 1 Over and 1 Under to play at the top offshore sportsbooks.
So let’s break down the NCAAB odds for tonight.
Western Illinois Leathernecks vs. SMU Mustangs
Wednesday, November 08, 2023 – 07:00 PM ET at Moody Coliseum
The SMU offense should have its way vs. the Western Illinois defense, and while we have no interest in the large spread, we are backing the Over Wednesday night.
Easy Opener
SMU cruised to an 82-63 win over a sub-level SW Assemblies of God school Monday, but even though this is now their Division I opener, we still expect the Mustangs to have just as easy a time offensively vs. a Western Illinois defense ranked 267th in efficiency on Kenpom.
The Mustangs return three starters for the team that went a disappointing 10-22 last season with one being leading scorer Zhuric Phelps and they added quality via the transfer portal in Chuck Harris (Butler) and B.J. Edwards (Tennessee). Phelps scored 24 points in the opener while Harris added 16 in his SMU debut, and they can build on that vs. the shaky Leathernecks defense.
Deceptive Opener
The Western Illinois defense looked better than expected in a 78-68 overtime loss on opening night, but much of that had to do with facing a UTSA team ranked 229th in offensive efficiency at just 99.1 points per 100 possessions. Comparatively. SMU grades out at 105.5 points per 100, so we expect the WIU defense to get exposed tonight.
Now the Leathernecks are not a good shooting team, but one thing they are good at is offensive rebounding, so they can contribute toward this Over via second-chance points. True to form, Western Illinois will snare 21 offensive boards in Monday’s defeat.
The Pick
We fully expect SMU to score in the 80s again tonight with 90 not an impossible task, so those Leathernecks’ second-chance points should add enough to this total to cash the Over.
Predicted Score: SMU 87 – Western Illinois 69
NCAAB Pick: Over 144.5 (-106) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Troy Trojans vs. Ohio Bobcats
Wednesday, November 08, 2023 – 07:00 PM ET at Convocation Center (OH)
We expect the Troy offense to struggle in its first Division 1 game of the season, and while the Ohio offense is decent, it could be more explosive. so we are betting on the Under in this matchup on Wednesday night.
Who Will Score?
Troy essentially had a scrimmage Monday night beating sub-level Fort Lauderdale 92-47 but expect nowhere near that offensive barrage tonight in the Division I opener for a Trojans team ranked 227th on Pomeroy in offensive efficiency. This is a team that lost three of its top four scorers from a year ago with no notable transfer portal additions.
Ironically, the biggest takeaway from scoring 92 points Monday is a negative one with leading returning scorer Christyon Eugene scoring just 11 points in 25 minutes while making only three field goals. Sure, the Trojans had four other players in double digits led by reserve Tayton Conerway with 15 points, but we cannot put much stock in that given the opponent.
Season Opener
Ohio is opening its season tonight and this team should contend for the MAC title returning four starters. The one caveat there is the lone starter not returning was last year’s leading scorer Dwight Wilson III, and while this year’s team should have balanced scoring, it is tough to pinpoint who the go-to guy will be, especially with the team having not played a game yet.
The Pick
The offense ranks a commendable 98th on Kenpom but considering that we do not expect much from the Troy offense and Ohio has not had a warm-up game to work out the kinks after Wilson’s departure, we do not expect the Bobcats to score enough to clear this total without the help of late-game fouling.
So with that in mind, we are banking on an Under in Athens on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Ohio 74– Troy 65
NCAAB Pick: Under 147 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Canisius Golden Griffins vs. Syracuse Orange
Wednesday, November 08, 2023 – 07:00 PM ET at JMA Wireless Dome
We do not bet double-digit favorites very often, but we expect a bigger blowout tonight than this spread suggests and are laying the wood with Syracuse at home hosting Canisius.
Solid on Both Ends
Syracuse opened the season with an 83-72 win over New Hampshire and this is a team ranked solidly above average on Kenpom, both offensively and defensively. While that may not sound like much and does not make the Orange elite, being solid on both ends of the court may be all that is needed to win handily tonight against a Canisius team ranked poorly on both ends.
The Orange return three starters with the most noteworthy being point guard Judah Mintz, who initially declared for the NBA Draft before pulling his name and returning to the school, promptly scoring 20 points in the opener Monday. Syracuse also added more offensive help in the form of Notre Dame transfer J.J. Starling.
Low Rankings
Canisius is opening its season tonight after finishing 10-20 last year, and the Griffins may have been lucky to win even 10 games considering the offense ranked 303rd in the nation in field goal percentage and the defense ranked 320th in field goal percentage against. And this team returns eight players from that squad.
So while this team is experienced, is that a good thing considering the talent level (or lack of it) displayed last season? Kenpom does not think so, currently ranking Canisius 273rd in offensive efficiency and 243rd in defensive efficiency to begin this year.
The Pick
Thus, we see this as a bigger mismatch than this line implies even with a spread in the lower double-digits, so give the points in an expected Orange rout.
Predicted Score: Syracuse 82 – Canisius 61
NCAAB Pick: Syracuse -13.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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