Top NCAAB Pick: Over 150 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
It is a huge NCAA Basketball card Wednesday including the second night of the ACC/SEC Challenge and we are here with our three best bets of the day.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences. Going through our main offshore sportsbooks’ offer, we begin with a marquee play in the Challenge with Tennessee visiting North Carolina, and we have one additional side and total.
Tennessee Volunteers vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Wednesday, November 29, 2023 – 07:15 PM ET at Dean E. Smith Center
Tennessee may be ranked higher than North Carolina both on Kenpom and on the AP Poll, but the Tar Heels have been the much better shooting team thus far and we look for them to prevail in front of what should be a frenzied home crowd.
Only Loss in OT
UNC is rated 12th overall on Kenpom, higher than their 17th ranking in the AP, as they come in at 5-1 with the only loss coming by two points in overtime to Villanova in the Bahamas, a tournament where the Tar Heels also trounced another SEC team, the Arkansas Razorbacks, by 87-72 last Friday.
They now return home ranked 15th in the nation in offensive efficiency, having scored at least 80 points in every game but one, and they did not need to on that occasion while letting up in an easy 77-52 win over UC Riverside. Furthermore, the Tar Heels have been a complete team also ranking 26th in defensive efficiency.
Shooting Woes
Now Tennessee is ranked seventh on Kenpom and 10th in the AP at 4-2, although the two losses have come in the last two games coinciding with a leap in competition, losing to Purdue and Kansas. The only quality win so far for the Volunteers was against Wisconsin, who have dropped down to 23rd on Kenpom since that game.
Now, we respect the fact that the Vols lead the country in defensive efficiency, but that has masked the fact that they have been a poor shooting team ranking 283rd in 2-point shooting and 165th in 3-point shooting, leading to a 245th ranking in eFG% at just 47.5%.
The Pick
As great as the Tennessee defense has been, nobody has been able to shut down North Carolina yet, so this is one game where we think the Vols’ shooting woes will bite them. Thus, lay the small spot with the Tar Heels at home.
Predicted Score: North Carolina 76 – Tennessee 69
NCAAB Pick: North Carolina -2 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Dayton Flyers vs. SMU Mustangs
Wednesday, November 29, 2023 – 08:00 PM ET at Moody Coliseum
SMU may be 5-2 at home, but 4-2 Dayton is rated 18 spots higher on Kenpom and are the better shooting team, so we are betting for the Flyers on the road.
Better Schedule
Dayton is rated 68th overall with two of their four wins coming against teams in the top 100 (St. John’s, LSU,) and their two losses have been to the Kenpom number one team Houston and to 58th rated Northwestern by just five points on the road. This road task seems easier against the 86th-rated Mustangs.
Even with the tougher schedule between these two teams, Dayton has shot the ball well ranking 43rd in offensive efficiency at 112.5 points per 100 possessions, and 47th in eFG%. The Flyers also play very slow ranking 345th in Tempo Rating, making it difficult for teams to come from behind when Dayton builds a lead, which should happen here given the difference in these teams’ shooting abilities.
Fraudulent Record
It is easy to see why SMU is the lower-rated team here despite being 5-2, as the five wins have come against one sub-level team and four teams outside the top 100, with three of those being outside the top 200 and one coming against 323rd rated Western Illinois.
And even with that easy schedule, the Mustangs rank just 287th in 2-point shooting at 45.9%, leading to a 186th ranking in eFG%. That ranking would be worse if not for a good 37.4% shooting from 3-point range, but it remains to be seen if they can match that vs. a better opponent after beating up on cupcakes.
The Pick
So, with Dayton rating much better offensively while facing a much better schedule, bet the Flyers to go into Dallas and escape with the victory.
Predicted Score: Dayton 71 – SMU 65
NCAAB Pick: Dayton +1 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Northern Colorado Bears vs. San Diego Toreros
Wednesday, November 29, 2023 – 10:00 PM ET at Jenny Craig Pavilion
We always say we will bet value wherever we see it regardless of the conferences involved, and such is the case here, as we see a higher-scoring game than the line indicates when Northern Colorado visits San Diego.
Poor UNCO Defense
Northern Colorado comes in at 3-3, but the Bears are just 1-3 against Division I schools with the win coming by one point in overtime against a Chicago State team rated 345th overall on Kenpom. The offense has been decent averaging 74.8 points, but the defense has struggled against offenses that grade out worse than San Diego.
The Bears are ranked 260th in defensive efficiency at an ugly 108.3 points per 100 possessions while ranking 275th in eFG% allowed, and they have been defenseless vs. 3-pointers ranking 318th while allowing a 37.9% success rate.
Should Score Enough Here
Now granted, San Diego is not great offensively at just 99.2 points per 100 possessions and it remains to be seen if the Toreros can take advantage of the poor UNCO 3-point defense given they are shooting just 32.2% from downtown themselves.
However, to their credit, San Diego was able to take advantage of the two worst defenses that have faced so far in terms of efficiency, putting up 80 points on 44.4% shooting from beyond the arc against a 352nd-ranked Le Moyne defense, and 87 points on 37.9% from 3-point land against 273rd ranked Jackson State.
The Pick
With the Northern Colorado defense ranked worse than both of those in efficiency, we expect another San Diego outburst in the 80s, which when combined with the Bears’ normal output has us betting the Over Wednesday.
Predicted Score: San Diego 85 – Northern Colorado 76
NCAAB Pick: Over 150 (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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