Top NCAAB Pick: Under 164.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
While it is not a huge main board of NCAA Basketball Tuesday with 20 games, the card does include the ACC/SEC Challenge and we are here with our three best bets of the day.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences. Our main offshore sportsbooks are offering an eclectic mix on Tuesday with one side, one Over, and one Under, including the best bet in the Miami vs. Kentucky matchup.
Southern Illinois Salukis vs. Indiana State Sycamores
Tuesday, November 28, 2023 – 07:00 PM ET at Hulman Center
The Missouri Valley Conference is usually known for plodding paces and low scoring, but we expect both offenses to score enough for an Over here when Southern Illinois visits Indiana State in the conference opener for both teams.
Hot Sycamores
Indiana State is off to a 5-1 start with four of the wins coming against Division 1 competition since opening the year with a sub-level team. The loss came against Alabama on the road, a game where the Sycamores still scored 80 points. In fact, they had scored at least 80 points in every game until beating Toledo 76-74 on Friday, the first ISU game this season to stay Under (4-1 for the Over).
The Sycamores are atypical of the MVC stereotype in that they play at a fast pace, ranking 24th in the country in Tempo Rating, and they lead the country in eFG% at a whopping 63.3%, ranking ninth in 3-point shooting and third in 2-point shooting. They can reach 80 again here by feeding 6’10” center Robbie Avila at will against an SIU defense ranked 189th in 2-point percentage allowed at 50.6%.
Capable Salukis
Despite the record, the news has not been as rosy on the defensive side for Indiana State, where they rank a poor 290th in eFG% allowed, and Southern Illinois is quite capable of taking advantage of that.
The Salukis may not be as elite offensively as the Sycamores have been so far, but they have still been very good ranking 36th in eFG% nationally, and they are averaging 81.4 PPG themselves albeit against a softer schedule. But even with the step up in competition, SIU should still get into the 70s, especially if they get caught up in the favored Sycamores’ pace.
Thus, we could easily see this game reaching the 150s, which would safely clear this Over.
Predicted Score: Indiana State 82 – Southern Illinois 73
NCAAB Pick: Over 146 (-113) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Miami Hurricanes vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Tuesday, November 28, 2023 – 07:30 PM ET at Rupp Arena
In our venture into the ACC/SEC Challenge, we foresee a lower-scoring game than this total indicates and are betting the Under when Miami visits Rupp Arena to take on Kentucky.
Great Freshman Class
Kentucky has brought in a great recruiting class as usual with only one returning starter from last year, and the young freshmen have keyed an offense ranked sixth in the nation in offensive efficiency and eighth in eFG%. However, other than a “good” four-point loss to the AP number one team Kansas, the 5-1 Wildcats have feasted on some weak defenses.
Of their five wins, three have come against teams ranked 216th or worse in defensive efficiency, and one has come against 156th-ranked Marshall with the only good defense Kentucky has beaten, being 56th-ranked Saint Joseph’s. Not so coincidentally, the Wildcats scored just 77 points in regulation time that game, which would have been a season-low if not for 19 overtime points producing a 96-88 win.
First True Road Game
Miami is above average in defensive efficiency at 100.8 points per 100 possessions allowed, so the Hurricanes can at least make some stops against Kentucky’s young studs. But the key to the Canes’ 5-0 start has been the offense, as they rank 11th in offensive efficiency and sixth in eFG% while leading the nation in 3-point shooting at 45.8%.
But Miami too is facing an underrated defense with Kentucky ranking 66th in defensive efficiency at 98.5 points per 100 possessions allowed. Also, this is Miami’s first true road game this year after three home games and two on neutral courts, and that first road game being in an environment like Rupp could be a factor for a pretty young Miami team with not one senior in its rotation.
So, while by no means are we expecting a defensive slugfest, we do expect both offenses to score less than they have been leading to an Under at this inflated total.
Predicted Score: Kentucky 81 – Miami-Florida 73
NCAAB Pick: Under 164.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
UC San Diego Tritons vs. Washington Huskies
Tuesday, November 28, 2023 – 10:00 PM ET at Redhawk Center
While the Pac-12 is only the fifth-ranked major conference on Kenpom, that is still considerably better than a Big West Conference ranked 17th overall so we look for Washington to assert its dominance at home against UC San Diego here.
Fast Pace
Washington comes in at 3-2 ranked 65th overall on Kenpom while owning a nice win over 43rd-ranked Xavier, with the two losses coming against 22nd-ranked San Diego State and 49th Nevada, so the matchup with the 236th-ranked Tritons provides a well-timed breather.
The Huskies are well balanced ranking in the 70s and above average in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and they are doing that while playing at a fast pace averaging just 14.9 seconds per possession, the 13th lowest in the land. That is a pace UC San Diego is not accustomed to seeing and the Huskies can do a lot of damage near the basket, ranking 22nd in 2-point percentage at 57.9%.
Outclassed
The Tritons began the year 4-0, but that was against one sub-level team and three teams ranked 213th or worse, and they have lost their last two games to fall to 4-2 despite not much of a rise in competition, in fact suffering a terrible loss to 356th ranked Idaho before losing to the “best” team they have faced so far in 133rd ranked Seattle.
It goes without saying Washington represents a humongous jump in class as the first major-conference school UCSD has faced, and there is nothing in their peripherals to suggest that they can keep pace here, especially with a porous defense ranked 286th in efficiency despite a weak schedule to date.
All things considered, giving 15 points here does not seem as daunting as it would ordinarily be, so we are doing just that with Washington on Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Washington 89 – UC San Diego 67
NCAAB Pick: Washington -15 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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