NCAAB Top Pick: Arkansas -6.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker review)
NCAA Basketball Feast Week continues with another huge slate of games on Wednesday, and here we are with our three best bets of the day.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences. That is not the case Wednesday though, as our three best bets consisting of one side and two totals all involve major conference teams.
Let’s break down our NCAAB odds!
Baylor Bears vs. Oregon State Beavers
Wednesday, November 22, 2023 – 07:00 PM ET at Barclays Center
We feel that the Baylor offense should be able to score at will against Oregon State on Wednesday, and while that is reflected in the spread, we do still see value in the Over, which is where we placed our wager.
Top 5 Offense
The Bears are 4-0 to begin the year including a high-quality win over Auburn, and they are currently ranked 12th overall in Kenpom. Baylor is solid on both ends of the court, but the major catalyst of their early success is an offense ranked fifth in efficiency, and we do not expect many issues against an Oregon State defense ranked 168th in efficiency.
Not that they need much help, but two key areas where the Bears can pad their scoring here are in three-point shooting and second-chance points. That is because Baylor is ninth in the land of three-point shooting while OSU is 196th defending the three, and the Bears are eighth in offensive rebounding percentage while the Beavers are a poor 291st defensively.
Normal Output Enough
Since we project Baylor to score in the mid-80s with 90 a possibility, that would mean Oregon State would only need to score around 60 to surpass the Over 143 for this game. Now, ignoring an opening win against a sub-level team, the 3-1 Beavers have padded their scoring average by topping 80 points in two overtime contests.
However, they did score 61 and 63 points respectively in the two overtime games, and then suffered their only loss to a good Nebraska team 84-63, again producing enough points to probably push this game Over. And the Beavers can sneakily add some cheap points at the foul line, as they are 27th in the nation in FTA/FGA ratio while making a good 75.3% of their free throws.
The Pick
So to sum up, we fully expect Baylor to score in the 80s fairly easily and we see a very realistic chance of Oregon State reaching the 60s, making the Over our play for Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Baylor 86 – Oregon State 67
NCAAB Pick: Over 143 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
Wednesday, November 22, 2023 – 07:00 PM ET at Fifth Third Arena
We think this is a rather inflated total for a game where the Cincinnati defense can shut down the Georgia Tech offense and neither team figures to add many points on free throws, so the Under is our play.
Yellow Jackets to Get Stung
Georgia Tech is a respectable 106th in offensive efficiency at 106.2 points per 100 possessions, but we do not expect them to reach their normal level against a Cincinnati defense ranked 41st in efficiency, as this game shapes up as a difficult matchup stylistically.
You see, despite being above average in efficiency, the Yellow Jackets are a poor shooting team hitting just 29.9% of their three-pointers and 49.2% of their two-pointers, leading to a 228th ranking in eFG%. Their key to generating points has been lots of second chances, with Ga. Tech ranking 12th in offensive rebounding percentage.
Few Second Chances Here
However, this is a rare time the Jackets do not have the edge in that area with Cincinnati third in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. So, with the Yellow Jackets not getting their normal allotment of second chances, they may struggle to score much more than 60 points given their terrible shooting.
With this posted total approaching 150, we do not feel that the Cincinnati offense, while a good 69th in offensive efficiency, is explosive enough to get to the high 80s that would be required if they shut down Tech as expected. Furthermore, these are two of the worst free-throw shooting teams in the country with the Bearcats 301st and the Jackets 340th from the foul line.
The Pick
With that poor free throw shooting from both sides and Georgia Tech not getting as many offensive rebounds as they have been to generate points, bet the Under in this spot.
Predicted Score: Cincinnati 76 – Georgia Tech 62
NCAAB Pick: Under 149.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline review)
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Stanford Cardinal
Wednesday, November 22, 2023 – 07:30 PM ET at Imperial Arena
The SEC is the second-ranked conference in the country on Kenpom, and we look for Arkansas to further assert that conference dominance with a handy win over Stanford of the Pac-12.
Nice Balance
The SEC currently has six teams in the Kenpom top 20, and although Arkansas is not one of them, they are not too far behind in 29th. The Razorbacks are well-balanced on both ends of the court ranking 27th in offensive efficiency and 45th in defensive efficiency, and they should be in a foul mood after getting upset by underrated NC Greensboro in their last game Friday.
We expect a more focused performance tonight vs. a power conference foe, and a focused Arkansas team ranked 36th in the land in eFG% should be able to do what it wants against a Stanford defense ranked 224th in eFG% allowed. To wit, the Hogs are 28th in two-point shooting at 58.7% while hitting 34.4 percent of their threes, while the Cardinal are 320th defending the three and 116th in two-point defense.
Who They Beat?
Conversely, the Pac-12 looks like one of the weakest power conferences with only Arizona in the Kenpom top 20, and Stanford is not helping the conference’s standing ranking 64th. The Cardinal are traveling for the first time after starting the year on a four-game homestand, where they went 3-1 beating three teams ranked 205th or worse overall while losing at home to mediocre Santa Clara.
Granted Stanford is on par with Arkansas in offensive efficiency ranking 30th, but as mentioned above the Cardinal struggle on defense and the Razorbacks are a major leap in class over the teams they faced to begin the season, bringing the current offensive ranking into question.
The Pick
All things considered, this point spread seems quite light with Arkansas being the higher-rated team from the much better conference, so lay the moderate points on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Arkansas 88 – Stanford 76
NCAAB Pick: Arkansas -6.5 (-110) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
