Top NCAAB Pick: Wake Forest -3 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
There are some excellent matchups on the Tuesday NCAA Basketball slate, and after a 6-3 record last week, we are back again with three best bets for tonight’s card.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences. We begin with one such mid-major best bet on Tuesday, but we then follow up with two nice major matchups from the ACC and Big 12.
Let’s dive into the analysis and see what our best options are for tonight’s action at the main offshore sportsbooks!
Virginia Commonwealth Rams vs. George Mason Patriots
Tuesday, January 09, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at EagleBank Arena
We start off in the Atlantic 10, where we are giving the rather modest points with George Mason at home over a VCU team that has often been sloppy protecting the basketball.
Best Team in A-10?
George Mason looks like a conference title contender, as the Patriots are 2-0 to begin this Atlantic 10 matchup. They own the best overall record of any team in the conference at 13-2. That mark is a half-game better than conference favorite Dayton (12-2). The Patriots grade out well on both ends of the court, ranking 37th in eFG% on offense and 39th in eFG% allowed on defense.
Offensively, Mason is an excellent 3-point shooting team ranking 21st nationally at 38.1%. They are good at getting second chances with an offensive rebounding percentage of 32.0% against a national average of 29.8%. Their defensive success is fueled by great interior defense, ranking eighth in the country in 2-point defense at a mere 42.4%.
Turnovers Huge Issue
We expected VCU to also contend for the A-10 title this season, but the Rams have continuously shot themselves in the foot while going just 8-7 overall. Furthermore, the Rams have begun conference play 0-2 while disturbingly losing both games at home. The most recent loss came to a George Washington team ranked just 180th on Kenpom.
The major issue for VCU has been ball protection. They are 260th in the land of turnover percentage, at 19.1% (national average 17.8%). Moreover, it is not as if they are making up for that on the other end. They are also 279th in turnovers forced defensively at just 15.8%.
The Pick
With George Mason already ranking better in eFG% on both ends of the court, the added advantage of winning the turnover battle should be enough to cover this low spread at home.
Predicted Score: George Mason 73 – VCU 64
NCAAB Pick: George Mason -3 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Florida State Seminoles
Tuesday, January 09, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Donald L. Tucker Center
Moving on to the ACC matchup. While Florida State is playing at home in Tuscaloosa, we still feel they will have trouble scoring enough points to cover the number as small home underdogs to Wake Forest on Tuesday.
Underrated?
The Demon Deacons have quietly climbed up to 42nd on Kenpom after starting the season 73rd. That ascent may not be done yet. Wake is 11-3 and enters this game on a 9-game winning streak. Five of those wins came against teams in the Kenpom Top 100, including the last three in a row. Their Florida State opponent here is just outside that threshold, at 104th.
The Deacons are averaging a nice 81.9 points per game. That is not a fluke, as they are 24th in offensive efficiency and 12th in eFG%, thanks to 58% 3-point shooting. They have also been able to put games away with great foul shooting, ranking fifth nationally just shy of 80.0% (79.9). And it is not as if they have been bad defensively, allowing a better-than-average 100.4 points per 100 possessions.
Bad Shooting Team
The Seminoles sit at 8-6 and 2-1 in ACC play. They won their last two games, both at home. However, beating 119th-ranked Georgia Tech and then barely defeating 68th-ranked Virginia Tech by three points in those wins may not have prepared them well enough for the red-hot Wake Forest team.
And frankly, we are not sure FSU can score enough points to keep pace here. The Seminoles have an offense ranked 234th in eFG% at a woeful 49.3%. This is just a poor shooting team across the board, hitting only:
- 49.2% of 2-pointers (215th).
- 33.0% of 3-pointers (193rd).
- 67.7% from the foul line (289th).
The Pick
One thing that Florida State has done well is force turnovers, ranking 38th at 21.0%. Although with that offset by Wake Forest turning the ball over just 14.6% offensively (32nd), we are betting on a safe road win for the Demon Deacons.
Predicted Score: Wake Forest 80 – Florida State 70
NCAAB Pick: Wake Forest -3 (-110) at BetOnline
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Tuesday, January 09, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at United Supermarkets Arena
We conclude our best bets in the Big 12. For this matchup, we simply do not see enough separation for Texas Tech to be this decided of a favorite over Oklahoma State. So we are taking the points with the Cowboys.
Can Keep Pace
Yes, we understand that Texas Tech is ranked 28th on Kenpom while Oklahoma State is only 97th at 8-6 overall. But four of those losses came against the Kenpom Top 100 and the Cowboys gave 14th-ranked Baylor all they wanted in their Big 12 opener on Saturday before falling 75-70 in overtime.
Oklahoma State is well-balanced. They rank 39th in eFG% at 54.3% and 44th in eFG% allowed defensively at 45.9%. The Cowboys shoot well from both beyond the arc (36.7% on 3-poibters) and inside the arc (53.8% on 2-pointers). On the other end, Oklahoma State is 40th in 2-point defense at 45.5%. They are also above average in 3-point defense at 31.6% against a national average of 33.3%.
Is Tech That Much Better?
Now, make no mistake: the Red Raiders are a very good basketball team. They are at 12-2 overall after a nice 78-67 conference opening win over Texas on Saturday. However, there is not too much separating the eFG% of these teams on each end of the court. Also, Tech plays at a slow pace, making it even harder to cover larger spreads.
In fact, the Raiders rank slightly lower in eFG% at both ends. They’ve been grading out at 53.7% offensively and 46.9% defensive, although their efficiencies get a bigger boost from a tougher schedule. Still, the Red Raiders rank 256th in Tempo Rating and 287th in average possession length, and that is not conducive to covering spreads like this regardless of the opponent.
The Pick
So, with the offensive and defensive shooting percentages so close and Texas Tech preferring a slow pace, our bet is taking the generous points with Oklahoma State in this spot.
Predicted Score: Texas Tech 74 – Oklahoma State 71
NCAAB Pick: Oklahoma State +8.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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