Top NCAAB Pick: Over 139.5 (-106) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We have a decent-sized NCAA Basketball card on Wednesday with 33 conference games on the main board.
After going 2-1 last night, we return with three more best bets for you to play at the top-rated online sportsbooks.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences. Such is the case Wednesday with not one but two best bets from the Missouri Valley Conference, plus a major conference play from the Big East.
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. Bradley Braves
Wednesday, January 31, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Carver Arena
We begin with a nice Missouri Valley matchup between the third and fourth-place teams in the conference. We are betting on the Bradly offense to key a safe win over Northern Iowa and are thus giving the points in Peoria.
Elite Shooting Team
The Braves enter at 15-6 overall and sit third in the MVC at 7-3. This includes two of the three conference losses coming to first place Indiana State.
This is a good team on both ends of the court, ranking 66th in offensive efficiency and 89th defensively. Moreover, the offensive efficiency would be much higher if not for ranking 225th in turnover percentage.
That is because Bradley has been an elite shooting team from all points of the floor. Ranked 14th in the entire country in eFG%, 16th in 3-point shooting (38.7%), and 31st in 2-point shooting (55.1%). Their general sloppiness with the basketball is not as much of a concern against a rather passive Northern Iowa defense.
No Pressure
The Panthers come in at just 12-9, although they sit fourth in the conference with a 6-4 MVC mark.
UNI is better than average in defensive efficiency at 102.8 points per 100 possessions allowed (national average 106.0). That rating is fueled by outstanding defensive rebounding. The fact is they do not apply much pressure ranking 215th in turnovers forced.
Besides being seemingly unable to take advantage of Bradley’s turnover weakness, the Panthers have a very interesting rebounding split.
You see, Northern Iowa leads the country in defensive rebounding percentage, but they have been one of the worst offensive rebounding teams ranking 343th. That should translate to a lack of second-chance opportunities for both teams.
The Pick
Generally speaking, a game with very few offensive rebounds should favor the better shooting team. With that team being Bradley by a big margin here, look for the Braves to secure a covering home win.
Predicted Score: Bradley 78 – Northern Iowa 66
NCAAB Pick: Bradley -6.5 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Missouri State Bears vs. Southern Illinois Salukis
Wednesday, January 31, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Banterra Center
“Second verse, same as the first”, as we are betting on another Missouri Valley Conference favorite for our second bet. This time, we are giving the points at home with Southern Illinois as they host Missouri State.
Great Matchup
The Salukis are 14-7 overall and tied for fourth in the MVC at 6-4.
They are better than average in efficiency and good in eFG% on both ends of the court. The Salukis rank 55th in the land in eFG% offensively and 76th in eFG% allowed. They are also third in eFG% allowed during conference play, making this a great matchup against a poor shooting Missouri State squad.
Back to the offense, SIU is a tough team to defend as they are 56th in 3-point shooting (38.4%) and 74th in 2-point shooting (53.4%). They have even been able to extend late leads by ranking 34th in foul shooting.
The Achilles Heel for the Salukis has been an inability to force turnovers (247th), but that does not matter as much against Missouri State.
Worst Shooting in MVC
The Bears are 12-9, but they are 4-6 inside the conference after going 8-3 against a weak non-conference slate ranked 296th on Kenpom. MVC play has exposed the offensive woes that they were able to get away with earlier against lesser foes.
Missouri State is 229th overall in offensive efficiency and 206th in eFG% at 49.8%.
As bad as that figure is, the Bears have been worse in MVC play. They rank dead last in a 12-team league in eFG% at 47.1%. You couldn’t say they have not been consistently bad, as they are exactly 10th in the conference in 3-point shooting, 2-point shooting, and foul shooting.
The Pick
We do not see Missouri State scoring much more than 60 points in this matchup while Southern Illinois is averaging 75.6 points at home. Therefore, lay the points with the Salukis.
Predicted Score: Southern Illinois 73 – Missouri State 61
NCAAB Pick: Southern Illinois -6 (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Providence Friars vs. Connecticut Huskies
Wednesday, January 31, 2024 – 08:30 PM ET at Gampel Pavilion
We wrap things up in the Big East, where we think points will be bountiful in Storrs. Therefore, we are going Over the seemingly low total when Connecticut plays host to Providence on Wednesday.
Top Ranked AP Team
The Huskies are currently ranked #1 in the country in the AP Poll and third overall on Kenpom. They sit at 18-2 with both losses coming on the road at Kansas and Seton Hall. They are on an 8-game winning streak since that second loss.
Connecticut nearly broke the century mark when demolishing a good Xavier team 99-56 on Sunday to improve to 11-0 at home.
The Huskies rank third in the country in offensive efficiency and fifth in eFG%. They have been practically unstoppable closer to the basket, ranking fifth in 2-point shooting (59.8%). Unafraid to run up scores at home, they have averaged 87.2 points at Gampel Pavilion.
Large Model Variance
This is a rare matchup where the projected score from our proprietary model is more than 10 points higher than the actual betting total. If we are correct with our prediction of Connecticut scoring around 80 points, then Providence would only need to score around 60 to clear this total and we have them around 70.
The Friars are not a bad shooting team themselves ranking 71st in eFG% at 53.2% (national average 50.3%). They too can do some damage near the rim, ranking 19th in 2-point offense (56.5%). Best of all, their scoring average does not dip too much on the road at 70.2 points per game.
The Pick
Combining Connecticut’s great offense, Providence’s capable offense on the road, and the potential for garbage time with the Huskies being big favorites, we see an easy Over in this spot.
Predicted Score: Connecticut 81 – Providence 70
NCAAB Pick: Over 139.5 (-106) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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