Top NCAAB Pick: Gonzaga -9 (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Thursday does not offer as many major NCAA Basketball matchups as earlier in the week, but the slate is not devoid of betting value at our top-rated online sportsbooks. Thus, after going 4-2 the last two nights, we return with three more best bets for tonight’s card.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences. That is the case Thursday as none of our three best bets come from major conferences, although they do involve one marquee team in Gonzaga.
Grand Canyon Antelopes vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
Thursday, January 25, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at William R. Johnson Coliseum
There could be an upset afoot in the WAC on Thursday. Grand Canyon comes off its first conference loss and second of the season overall, but we look for Stephen F. Austin to hand the Antelopes a second straight defeat at home in Nacogdoches.
Sloppiness Catching Up
Grand Canyon is 17-2 overall and 7-1 in conference play. They are easily the highest-ranked WAC team on Kenpom at 62nd overall. However, after having lost only to South Carolina of the SEC entering Saturday, they were surprisingly upset 86-79 at 122nd-ranked Seattle.
But before just brushing off that defeat, consider that one of the main reasons it happened has been an ongoing problem all season, that being their 14 turnovers. While the Antelopes have been otherwise fine offensively at 114.4 points per 100 possessions, ranking 58th in eFG%, they are a sloppy 255th in turnover percentage.
Tough Matchup
With that sloppy ball-handling leading to their first conference loss, GCU now finds themselves in a tougher matchup against a Stephen F. Austin defense ranked an elite ninth in the country in turnover percentage forced.
Grand Canyon is the better offensive team here. However, that pressure defense from the Lumberjacks may be the deciding factor.
Besides, while the Antelopes are 34th in the country in scoring average, the Lumberjacks are not drastically behind in 57th. Furthermore, that difference goes away entirely when looking at the home/away splits. Grand Canyon is dropping to 79.6 PPG on the road. Austin is actually a tick better at home at 79.7 PPG.
The Pick
With the venue neutralizing the scoring averages and the Grand Canyon turnover problems expected to continue against a pressure defense, bet Stephen F. Austin to upset.
Predicted Score: Stephen F. Austin 79 – Grand Canyon 74
NCAAB Pick: Stephen F. Austin +2 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Southern Utah Thunderbirds vs. Tarleton State Texans
Thursday, January 25, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Wisdom Gym
We stay in the WAC for our second selection. Tarleton State finds itself in the thick of the conference race in just its fourth season in Division I. We look for them to keep pace with a double-digit home win over Southern Utah.
One of the Worst Defenses
Before talking about the ascension of Tarleton State, let us start by talking about Southern Utah’s defense…or lack thereof. The Thunderbirds rank 329th out of 362 Division I teams in points allowed at 78.5 per game. And their metrics look even worse.
That is because the Thunderbirds are 334th in eFG% allowed. Opposing teams have been able to do whatever they want closer to the basket. Southern Utah is ranking 349th in 2-point defense at a whopping 56.4%. That is what happens when your normal rotation has one player at 6’9” with all the other regulars at 6’5” or shorter.
Welcome to the Big Leagues
Tarleton State joined the Division I level for the 2020-21 season. They commendably posted a .500 record at 17-17 in their third season at the top level last year.
The Texans have now taken the next step sitting at 12-6 currently. As for this matchup, they are tied with Stephen F. Austin for second in the conference at 5-2, trailing only 7-1 Grand Canyon.
The Texans are a tick below average in offensive efficiency at 106.6 points per 100 possessions (national average of 106.9). They can easily improve on that against the dreadful Southern Utah defense. While Tarleton only averages 70.4 PPG overall, that scoring average jumps all the way up to 80.9 PPG at home where they are 6-1.
The Pick
Look for Tarleton State to reach that home scoring average Thursday against the SUU defense in a bigger win than this spread implies.
Predicted Score: Tarleton St. 82 – Southern Utah 69
NCAAB Pick: Tarleton St. -6.5 (-103) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
San Francisco Dons vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Thursday, January 25, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at McCarthey Athletic Center
We wrap things up with a West Coast Conference matchup.
Gonzaga is in unfamiliar territory tied for third in the standings. However, we still think the Bulldogs are the best team in the WCC. Therefore, we look for an assertive home win over San Francisco.
Still the Best?
People are down on Gonzaga because they are not as good as the teams of recent seasons. At 13-5, they already have more losses than two years ago and almost as many as the 31-6 team for the full season last year. Yet, while that decline is real, they are still ranked 19th overall on Kenpom with the second-highest-ranked WCC team being Saint Mary’s at 28th.
So, we are not that concerned that they are currently tied with their opponents tonight from San Francisco for third in the conference at 4-1 behind 5-0 Saint Mary’s and 5-1 Santa Clara. Four of the Bulldogs’ five losses have come to Top 100 teams with their only home loss coming to #22 San Diego State.
And since losing on the road at Santa Clara, they rebounded by winning their last two games by 25 and 42 points respectively.
Good but Probably Not Enough
Now, we like this Dons team that is ranked 40th in defensive efficiency while grading out above average offensively at 111.2 points per 100 possessions. However, they still pale compared to Gonzaga’s efficiency rankings of 26th offensively and 30th defensively and are thus only 65th on Kenpom.
San Fransisco also comes off a deflating 77-60 loss at home to Saint Mary’s where the Dons basically proved that, while they are good, they are not at the same level as the Big Two of the WCC. That does not put them in the greatest mindset when visiting a Gonzaga team seemingly on a mission to quiet their doubters.
The Pick
While Gonzaga may not win this game by as wide a margin as their last two games, we are still betting on a double-digit winning margin good enough to cover this spread at home.
Predicted Score: Gonzaga 85 – San Franisco 70
NCAAB Pick: Gonzaga -9 (-105) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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