Top NCAAB Pick: Florida -3.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We have another nice NCAA Basketball slate Wednesday chock full of big conference matchups. After going 2-1 last night, we return with three more best nets for tonight, all of which are small to moderate home favorites.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences. Such is not the case Wednesday with our three smaller chalks coming from the Big Ten, ACC, and SEC.
Let’s go a little further on tonight’s action to find out where sportsbooks are offering value on the games.
Maryland Terrapins vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Wednesday, January 24, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Carver-Hawkeye Arena
Starting with a Big Ten matchup, Iowa has one of the strongest home-court advantages in the country and their pace can run any team out of Carver Hawkeye Arena. We are giving the points Wednesday against Maryland.
Bounce-Back Mode
The Hawkeyes are 11-7 overall and dropped to 3-4 in Big Ten play Saturday with a rare home loss.
That was against an outstanding Purdue team ranked second overall on Kenpom though, so we now look for an Iowa team in bounce-back mode to take out some frustrations on a lower 68th-ranked Maryland team.
Iowa has the 26th rated home court advantage in the entire country according to Kenpom, at +3.9 points. This year’s Hawkeyes team likes to play at a frenetic pace ranking seventh in the nation in Tempo Rating, and that has especially manifested itself at home where Iowa is averaging a whopping 93.0 points with an average winning margin of +15.2 points.
How Will They Keep Pace?
Meanwhile, Maryland dropped to 11-8 overall and 3-5 in conference play with a 61-59 home loss to Michigan State Sunday. The Terrapins prefer a slower pace ranking 299th in Tempo Rating, but Iowa has dictated the pace at home in every game and we do not see Maryland slowing them down either.
A faster-paced game with more possessions would greatly expose the differences between these two offenses. You see, even while playing at a hectic pace, Iowa is 18th in offensive efficiency. On the other hand, Maryland’s preferred glacial pace has disguised the fact that they are a mere 171st in efficiency.
The Pick
Yes, the Terps’ strength has been defense, where they are 17th in efficiency. However, nobody has been able to slow the Hawkeyes when they get running at home, and we are betting on that to continue with a double-digit Iowa win.
Predicted Score: Iowa 84 – Maryland 73
NCAAB Pick: Iowa -5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Wednesday, January 24, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at John Paul Jones Arena
We continue our underpriced home-team theme with an ACC matchup. Virginia is undefeated at home while playing smothering defense, and we expect more of the same with a safe win against NC State Wednesday.
Suffocating at Home
Virginia has been somewhat of a disappointment overall at 13-5 and 4-3 in ACC play, resulting in only a 63rd ranking on Kenpom. This looks like the familiar Cavalier teams of the past that can play shutdown defense but struggle to score.
The Cavs rank 16th in defensive efficiency and 152nd in offensive efficiency.
However, the Virginia defense has been virtually impenetrable at home allowing a minuscule 49.8 points per game on 35.3% shooting. That has led to a perfect 10-0 record at home with an average winning margin of +15.7 points. Sure, that translates to only 65.5 PPG from the offense, but Virginia has scored 75 points or more in five of seven conference games.
How Will They Score?
While Virginia is ranked lower than expected overall, NC State is rated even lower at 71st, although they are one game ahead of the Cavaliers in the ACC at 5-2. Still, it is not as if the Wolfpack play very quickly themselves, ranking 97th in Tempo Rating. We do not expect State to take Virginia out of its comfort zone stylistically.
And the Wolfpack are an average shooting team with an eFG% of 50.5 %, just a tick above the 50.3% national average. The obvious problem here though is they are facing a defense that has been elite in their home building, so average simply will not do. Thus, we do not expect the Pack to come near their season average of 77.3 PPG.
The Pick
When you add in that Virginia will also be motivated here where a win would tie them with NC State in the conference standings, and we see the Cavaliers staying perfect at home with a big win.
Predicted Score: Virginia 70 – NC State 59
NCAAB Pick: Virginia -5.5 (-106) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Florida Gators
Wednesday, January 24, 2024 – 08:30 PM ET at Exactech Arena at the Stephen C. O’Connell Center
We conclude in the SEC with another team that has played much better at home than on the road. Florida has lost only once in Exactech Arena to an excellent Kentucky team, and we expect another handy victory Wednesday over Mississippi State.
Second Chances Big Key
The Gators are just 12-6 overall with a losing 2-3 record in the SEC.
This is a big game if they want to avoid getting buried in the conference standings. It certainly helps playing at home, where Florida is 7-1 with an average winning margin of +16.0 points.
This team does not resemble the great shooting Florida teams of years past, although the Gators are above average in eFG% at 51.3%. However, they make up for that with an abundance of opportunities, as the Gators are third in the nation in offensive rebounding. Furthermore, Florida also leads the conference during SEC play in defensive rebounding percentage.
0-3 on Road
We think that expected Florida dominance on the glass on both ends of the court will be too much for Mississippi State to overcome in this matchup. And that lack of second-chance opportunities also gets compounded by giving away too many possessions, with the Bulldogs ranking an ugly 249th in turnover percentage.
Now, MSU has still managed to go 13-5 and they are ranked five spots higher than Florida on Kenpom at 35th overall. However, the Bulldogs have done all their damage at home as they have played just three road games all year, going 0-3 in those contests. That includes a brutal road loss to a 127th-ranked Georgia Tech team.
The Pick
We do not expect Mississippi State to quickly turn around its road troubles at a difficult venue like Gainesville. Add in the extra Florida chances via an expected big rebounding edge and Bulldogs turnovers.
Lay the small spread with the Gators.
Predicted Score: Florida 82 – Mississippi State 72
NCAAB Pick: Florida -3.5 (-110) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
