Top NCAAB Pick: Syracuse -3 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Tuesday NCAA Basketball card brings us 32 games on the main board full of nice conference matchups. As usual, we are here with our three best bets for the eventful slate.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences. We have one such mid-major best bet for Tuesday with the other two hailing from the Big Ten and ACC.
Let’s dive into tonight’s action to see if we can keep cashing at the main sportsbooks.
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Pinnacle Bank Arena
We start with a Big Ten matchup between two teams with similar records. However, Nebraska has a better trajectory compared to expectations. We look for the Cornhuskers to beat Ohio State safely at home.
Better Than Expected
Very few experts before the season would have expected Nebraska to be 14-5 after 19 games, yet here they are.
Those wins include five victories over the Kenpom Top 100. This includes four wins here at home in Big Ten play highlighted by a 16-point romp over #2 Purdue. And the fifth non-conference win was not less impressive, coming on the road over Kansas State in non-conference action.
So, the Cornhuskers have already validated their record not being a fluke. They are 12-1 here at home losing only to #14 Creighton. The Huskers are also the better shooting team here, especially closer to the basket. They rank a stout 28th nationally in offensive efficiency while making 53,2% of the 2-point shots against a national average of 50.3%.
No Road Wins
Ohio State is only a half-game worse than Nebraska at 13-5, but more was expected of the Buckeyes after beginning the year ranked 35th on Kenpom.
Furthermore, they have a losing 3-4 record inside the conference, and they are 0-3 in true road games. Other than beating #8 Alabama early in the season, Ohio State owns no other win against a team ranked higher than 93rd.
Meanwhile, the three Buckeyes’ road losses came at 109th-ranked Penn State, 96th-ranked Indiana and 79th-ranked Michigan. All three of those teams rank considerably lower than 49th-ranked Nebraska. And Ohio State is just 147th in eFG% and 163rd in 2-point shooting.
The Pick
To sum up, Nebraska has had more success against the better teams in the country and they have been dominant at home. Add in Ohio State being winless on the road and lay the small spot with the Huskers.
Predicted Score: Nebraska 80 – Ohio State 72
NCAAB Pick: Nebraska -3.5 (-109) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Loyola Chicago Ramblers vs. Virginia Commonwealth Rams
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Stuart C. Siegel Center
Venturing into the Atlantic 10 matchup, VCU seems to have finally hit their stride with three straight wins, and we look for them to handily make it four straight wins at home over Loyola Chicago on Tuesday.
This is What We Expected
We have had a love/hate relationship with VCU as we expected them to contend for the Atlantic 10 title this season.
However, the Rams began the year just 8-7 overall and 0-2 in A-10 play with two home losses. We were just about ready to write them off. Then they suddenly posted back-to-back road wins at George Mason and La Salle and improved to 11-7 with a 24-point win over Saint Louis.
This has allowed the Rams to again crack the Kenpom Top 100 at 98th. A win over a Loyola team here that is 5-1 in the conference could put VCU right back in the A-10 race at 4-2, making this their biggest game of the year so far. The Rams have been great defensively, ranking 18th in eFG% allowed, 35th in 2-point defense, and 28th in 3-point defense.
If their offensive improvement since the start of the year continues, as they are now above average in eFG% at 53.2%, they may still be conference title contenders.
Offensive Struggles
The Ramblers have the better record here at 13-6 overall and we have already mentioned the 5-1 A-10 record. Yet, Loyola is ranked 22 spots lower at 120th. Sure, part of that has to do with VCU being ranked higher to start the season, but it also had to do with an offense not supporting the record.
The Ramblers are just 217th in offensive efficiency and they have been extremely sloppy with the basketball ranking 288th in turnover percentage. We do not see that improving against a VCU defense that has played well all season.
The Pick
So, with the Loyola record on the lucky side and VCU starting to look like the team we expected at the start of the season, look for the Rams to extend their winning streak to four with a big win.
Predicted Score: VCU 75 – Loyola Chicago 65
NCAAB Pick: VCU -5 (-116) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Florida State Seminoles vs. Syracuse Orange
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at JMA Wireless Dome
We finish up with a matchup in the ACC, where Syracuse has accounted itself well against a brutal schedule and we look for another nice home win over what we feel is an overachieving Florida State team.
Toughened by Schedule
The Orange enter this contest at 13-5 and ranked 73rd on Kenpom, but we feel they are a bit underrated. That is because according to Kenpom, they have faced the 16th toughest schedule in the country, with their opposing offenses cumulatively ranked 12th and opposing defenses ranked 25th.
Yet they have a winning 6-5 record against the Top 100. Take note that includes all their losses this season, with four of those coming to the Top 20. Furthermore. Syracuse is a perfect 9-0 here at home including four Top 100 wins. This team is ranked 30th in the country in defensive efficiency, and we expect the Orange to throttle the Florida State offense.
How Are They Winning?
While we think Syracuse is underrated at 13-5, we feel the exact opposite about Florida State. They seem to be lucky to be 11-7 and 5-2 in ACC play. That luck is reflected by only an 82nd ranking on Kenpom, and perhaps a correction may have already begun with a 78-67 home loss to Clemson on Saturday.
Those 67 points are more of what you would expect from a Seminoles team somehow averaging 76.6 PPG despite atrocious shooting. You see, FSU is ranked 229th in eFG% while ranking 217th in 2-point shooting, 224th in 3-point shooting, and even 262nd in foul shooting. And it is not as if the Noles have overcome that with amazing defense, ranking only 190th in eFG% allowed.
The Pick
So, with Syracuse undefeated at home against a tough schedule and Florida State greatly outperforming their metrics, give the points to the Orange on Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Syracuse 78 – Florida State 69
NCAAB Pick: Syracuse -3 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
