Top NCAAB Pick: Stephen F. Austin -5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Thursday’s NCAA Basketball card may be lacking in top-tier matchups, but not in betting value at our main offshore sportsbooks.
To that end, after going 4-2 in this space the last two nights, we are back with three more best bets for tonight’s slate.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences. That is true for all our Thursday best bets, with all three plays coming from minor conferences.
Milwaukee Panthers vs. Northern Kentucky Norse
Thursday, January 18, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Truist Arena
We begin in the Horizon League with two teams that grade out poorly on defense. However, with the small underdogs from Milwaukee at least competent offensively, we are betting the Panthers to pull the mild road upset at Northern Kentucky.
Does Home Court Matter?
We get that Northern Kentucky is only favored by a couple of points, but it is hard to trust a 9-9 team that is weak on both ends giving any points. Besides, it is not as if NKU had a huge home-court advantage, as Kenpom rates them 265th in that department with an HCA of only +2.6.
Offensively, the Norse are 195th in efficiency and 202nd in eFG%, while they are 231st in efficiency and 224th in eFG% allowed on defense. Their biggest offensive flaw is 3-point shooting at a hideous 29.8% (320th), but their ultimate demise in this game may be due to defensive rebounding. NKU is just 313th on that front and is now facing one of the better offensive-rebounding teams in the country.
Lots of Second Chances
Milwaukee is 9-8 overall and 4-2 in Horizon League play, making them one of three 2-loss teams atop the conference along with Oakland and Green Bay. So, they need a win here to keep pace with the conference leaders. And while they are just as poor as NKU defensively ranking 280th in eFG% allowed, they should be able to score enough here to get the victory.
The Panthers are above average in efficiency at 109.2 points per 100 possessions (national average 105.5), but the real story is their expected domination of the offensive glass. UWM is 17th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, and we have already mentioned the rebounding difficulties for NKU on the defensive end.
The Pick
Wisconsin Milwaukee should get virtually all the second chances in this matchup, and they are already the better shooting team to begin with. Add in a weak home court for Northern Kentucky and look for an outright Panthers win.
Predicted Score: Milwaukee 77 – Northern Kentucky 73
NCAAB Pick: Milwaukee +2 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Seattle Redhawks vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
Thursday, January 18, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at William R. Johnson Coliseum
We move to the WAC for our second best bet, and unlike our first selection, we think the defense will decide this matchup. With Stephen F. Austin expected to cause havoc on the turnover front, we are backing a safe Lumberjacks win at home over Seattle.
Elite Forcing Turnovers
Austin is 11-6 overall and 4-2 in WAC play. They are two games behind the 6-0 Grand Canyon, who they face here at home in their next game. That means it is possible for the Lumberjacks to tie for the conference lead by winning the next two games, so we do not expect this to be a look-ahead spot.
The Jacks are below average offensively ranking 218th in efficiency and 172nd in eFG%, but Seattle is worse in both areas. Austin has the edge on defense due to being elite nationally in turnover percentage, ranking fifth in the country in that department. Furthermore, they are facing one of the sloppiest ball-handling teams in the land, so look for that abundance of turnovers forced to continue.
Lots of Transition Pounts Allowed
Seattle is 10-7 overall and 3-3 inside the conference. They have also struggled on the road going 1-5 with the lone win coming against a UTEP team ranked 226th on Kenpom. Granted the Redhawks are decent defensively ranking 59th in efficiency, but as mentioned, they are actually worse than SFA offensively ranking 226th in efficiency and 193rd in eFG%.
Furthermore, the Redhawks’ decent defensive numbers are expected to take a hit tonight by allowing easy buckets in transition. That is because not only are they facing one of the best defenses in the county in forcing turnovers, but Seattle is also 304th in the country in turnover percentage offensively at a whopping 19.9% (national average 17.6%).
The Pick
Look for that huge edge in projected transition points to help propel Austin to a double-digit win, so give the points at home.
Predicted Score: Stephen F. Austin 74 – Seattle 62
NCAAB Pick: Stephen F. Austin -5 (-110) at Bookmaker
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles vs. North Dakota Fighting Hawks
Thursday, January 18, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Betty Engelstad Sioux Center
We conclude in the Summit League where Oral Roberts and North Dakota almost look like mirror images of each other component-wise except for rebounding. A big edge for North Dakota there has us betting the Flying Hawks as small underdogs,
Mighty Have Fallen
The Golden Eagles are the defending Summit Champions, going undefeated in league play last year at 18-0 and then winning the conference tournament before losing to Duke in the NCAA Tournament. It has been a different story this year though with ORU owning a losing 8-9 record, and they are 2-2 in league play after losing at home to 126th Kenpom ranked St. Thomas on Saturday.
For the Eagles, the collapse has been on both ends of the court, as they are only slightly above average at 135th in offensive efficiency and a weak 284th in defensive efficiency. This year’s version is a terrible rebounding team ranking 355th out of 362 teams in Division I in offensive rebounding percentage and 306th on the defensive end. We see that weakness at the glass as their downfall tonight.
At Least They Hit the Glass
The Flying Hawks are also weak in efficiency on both offense and defense. One big difference between these teams is in the rebounding department. North Dakota is above average on both ends. Considering how awful a rebounding team Oral Roberts is, “above average” should be good enough to have a big edge.
This is especially important on the offensive end. In a matchup where neither team shoots the ball well, the extra opportunities created by second chances certainly help the North Dakota cause. And as bad as these teams are offensively, it is the Flying Hawks who probably have the best scorer on the court in BJ Omot, who erupted for 30 points in a win over UMKC Saturday.
The Pick
In a game where the teams are pretty even in all other areas, look for a big North Dakota rebounding edge to key a home victory on Thursday.
Predicted Score: North Dakota 76 – Oral Roberts 72
NCAAB Pick: North Dakota +1.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
