Top NCAAB Pick: Miami -7.5 (-110) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Weeknight NCAA Basketball cards are revving up as we have loads of nice conference matchups for Wednesday.
After going a winning 2-1 last night, we return with three more best bets for the loaded slate.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences.
That is not the case Wednesday though, as we have power conference plays galore with two from the ACC and one from the SEC for you to profit at our main offshore sportsbooks.
Ole Miss Rebels vs. LSU Tigers
Wednesday, January 17, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Pete Maravich Assembly Center
We begin in the SEC, where we feel it is not a stretch at all to call Mississippi the worst 15-1 team in the country. We see Lady Luck escaping the Rebels Wednesday and are betting on LSU as modest favorites.
Fraudulent Rebels
At first glance, it may seem odd to see a 10-6 team like LSU favored over 15-1 Mississippi. Then again, how often do you see 15-1 teams that hail from power conferences only ranked 70th on Kenpom? That should give you an idea of how easy the Ole Miss non-conference schedule was, as Kenpom rated it 252nd.
And despite that easy slate, the Rebels simply do not profile as a 15-1 team, ranking a good but not great 46th in offensive efficiency and just 119th in defensive efficiency. Their major Achilles Heel is defensive rebounding ranking 337th, and that could prove to be the death blow against a big and physical LSU squad.
Now They’re Cooking
Yes, the Tigers are 10-6, but they were without star guard and Tulane transfer Jalen Cook for the first 11 games. Since inserting Cook as a starter on December 21st, LSU is 4-1 with Jalen averaging 15.2 points, scoring 28 in the last Tigers home contest two games ago. Granted the one loss since his insertion came last game, but it is no disgrace losing on the road to Kenpom’s fifth-ranked team in Auburn.
Besides the spark provided by Cook, LSU has three big men in their normal rotation that stand 6’10” or taller. That should limit second chances for an Ole Miss team that already struggles in the defensive rebounding department. And while the Tigers are 257th in turnover percentage at 18.9%, that figure has been steadily improving with Cook at the helm.
The Pick
So, what we have here is an LSU team that is a much better team with Cook leading the charge at home against a Mississippi team not nearly as good as their record.
Lay this small spot with the Tigers on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: LSU 79 – Mississippi 70
NCAAB Pick: LSU -3 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Florida State Seminoles vs. Miami (FL) Hurricanes
Wednesday, January 17, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Watsco Center
Moving on to the ACC, we think the huge shooting advantage Miami owns over Florida State will be enough for a double-digit home win. Thus, we are laying the chalk with the Hurricanes at home in Coral Gables.
Sharp Shooting
Miami is 59th on Kenpom at 12-4 overall with three of those losses coming to Top 40 teams. They are 3-2 in ACC play. That makes this a big matchup to keep up with the conference leaders, and just like it has all season, we look for a Miami offense ranked 30th in the nation in efficiency to carry the Canes to a big win.
The Hurricanes are 12th in the land in eFG% while averaging a potent 83.7 PPG. This is a team that is difficult to defend as Miami shoots well from all points of the floor, ranking fifth in 3-point shooting at 40.7% and 41st in 2-point shooting at 54.5%. Given that great offense, the Hurricanes have played well enough to win defensively at 102.7 points per 100 possessions allowed (national average 105.3).
How Will They Keep Up?
The Seminoles are ranked considerably lower at 87th with a 10-6 mark. Although they are ahead of Miami with a 4-1 conference record. However, three of those ACC wins have come at home and the one road win was over 155th-ranked Notre Dame.
In fact, Florida State has played just three true road games, and they were 0-2 away from home before that uninspiring win.
Unlike Miami, the Noles are a terrible shooting team ranked 225th in eFG% at only 49.3%. This includes shooting a dismal 48.7% in 2-point attempts. Granted, the Noles are right at the national average defensively in eFG% allowed at 50.2%, but we do not think that is nearly good enough to slow down the Hurricanes.
The Pick
Given that probable inability to slow the Miami offense down, Florida State simply lacks the shooting to keep pace. Look for a safe covering Hurricanes win at home.
Predicted Score: Miami-FL 86 – Florida State 75
NCAAB Pick: Miami -7.5 (-110) at Heritage Sports
Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Wednesday, January 17, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at John Paul Jones Arena
It is rare that we bet three favorites in one night, but we are doing so on Wednesday’s matchup. We feel that the suffocating Virginia defense will be too difficult for Virginia Tech to overcome in Charlottesville, so give the points to the Cavaliers.
Especially Stingy at Home
This looks like the prototypical Virginia teams of the past, a team with one of the best defenses in the country but that struggles offensively while playing at a snail’s pace. The Cavaliers are 20th in the country in defensive efficiency but 167th in offensive efficiency. Furthermore, they rank 360th out of 362 teams in Division I in Tempo Rating.
The end-result is a rather uneven 11-5 record and 69th ranking on Kenpom, as well as a disappointing 2-3 ACC mark. However, Virginia has been much better at home going a perfect 9-0 including both conference wins. The Cavaliers have been simply suffocating in Charlottesville, allowing a mere 49.0 points per game on 34.9% shooting.
They even scored 79 and 77 points in their two ACC wins.
Zero Road Wins
Virginia Tech is the slightly higher-ranked team here at 63rd overall with a record of 10-6. However, the Hokies are tied with Virginia in conference play at 2-3 and they have yet to win a true road game this season. They have played only three road games going 0-3 including 0-2 inside the ACC, most recently going down to a nondescript Florida State team.
It seems like a tall order to get that elusive first road win at Virginia the way the Cavs have played in this building. Now, it is not that the Hokies are bad offensively ranking a respectable 68th in offensive efficiency and 63rd in eFG%. It is just that we do not think those rankings are nearly good enough to crack the Virginia defense on the road.
The Pick
When you add in the expected slow pace of this game, Virginia Tech may not even reach 60 points. We feel this spread is low enough to give the points with Virginia at home on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Virginia 65 – Virginia Tech 57
NCAAB Pick: Virginia -3.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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