
Top NCAAB Pick: Boise State -5 (-110) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Tuesday brings us 31 games on the NCAA Basketball board, and after going 2-0-1 our last time in this space last Thursday, we return with three more best bets for the slate tonight.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences. We have two such mid-major best bets for Tuesday, as well as a nice ACC matchup for you to profit at our main offshore sportsbooks.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack
Tuesday, January 16, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at PNC Arena
We begin with our only power conference best bet of the evening. While Wake Forest is the much higher ranked team on Kenpom at 37th against 71st for NC State, the Demon Deacons have not established themselves on the road and we are betting the Wolfpack as tiny home chalk.
But Can They Travel?
Now we are well aware of Wake’s Kenpom ranking and that they are 10-1 in their last 11 games. In fact, we have profited several times during this Deacons’ run with our betting analyses, which are also posted in the NCAAB Betting Forum. The issue we have thought about is that Wake’s success has come predominantly at home.
Wake Forest is a perfect 10-0 at home, but this team has played just three true road games thus far posting a losing 1-2 record with the win coming by six points over 90th-ranked Boston College. The one loss during the current 11-game stretch came two games ago at 87th-ranked Florida State, and they now face the highest-rated team that have faced yet on the road in NC State.
They Don’t Turn the Ball Over
The Wolfpack have the exact same overall record as the Deacons at 12-4 and they are 8-1 at home in Raleigh. Furthermore, that one loss came to the fifth-ranked team on Kenpom in North Carolina, and as hot as Wake Forest has been, they are still not at the same caliber as the Tar Heels.
For this matchup, we expect NC State to control the tempo at home, and that is important for an offense not as explosive as Wake Forest has been. Also, the Wolfpack do rank 77th in offensive efficiency themselves and they have been exceptional at ball protection, ranking fourth in the country in turnover percentage at just 13.1% (national average 17.7%).
The Pick
We expect NC State to do a good enough job of keep-away to prevent Wake Forest from getting out on the break as often as they would like.
That is enough for us to bet the Wolfpack at home at a cheap price.
Predicted Score: NC State 78 – Wake Forest 71
NCAAB Pick: NC State -1.5 (-115) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Charlotte 49ers vs. Rice Owls
Tuesday, January 16, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Tudor Fieldhouse
Our second play comes from the AAC. We expect a higher-scoring game than the low total suggests and are thus betting the Over when Charlotte visits Rice on Tuesday.
Could Approach 80 Points
Now, we can understand this posted total with Rice ranking 195th in offensive efficiency. However, the opportunity for points comes with the Owls ranking 264th in defensive efficiency and 274th in eFG% allowed. That is certainly an area Charlotte can exploit with their two big men.
The 49ers are right at the national average in eFG% at 50.2%, but they are considerably better in 2-point shooting at 53.3% against the national average of 50.2%.
It is easy to see why.
Charlotte plays two giants at the same time in 6’11” Dishon Jackson and 6’10” Igor Milicic, making them a load to handle for even an average defense, let alone a terrible one like Rice.
May Not Need Much
We see Charlotte approaching 80 points given this matchup. But even if they score in the mid-70s, it means that Rice would only need to barely break 60 for this game to get Over the current consensus total of 136.5. As bad as the Rice offensive metrics have been, that certainly still seems doable.
While the Owls are 6-10 and rank a dismal 226th in eFG%, they are still averaging 73.4 points per game. And while we do not expect Rice to reach that mark against a Charlotte defense allowing an eFG% of only 47.4% (76th) and ranked 29th in points against at 64.4 PPG, Rice has still scored at least 64 points in all but three games this season.
The Pick
Given that we expect Charlotte to score with relative ease, that modest benchmark from Rice should be enough to go Over this low total Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Charlotte 78 – Rice 66
NCAAB Pick: Over 136.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
UNLV Runnin’ Rebels vs. Boise State Broncos
Tuesday, January 16, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at ExtraMile Arena
We conclude with a Mountain West matchup, where we are betting on a double-digit win and easy cover by Boise State at home over UNLV.
Line Looks Cheap?
This line seems very cheap for a Kenpom 50th-ranked Boise State team at home against the 87th-ranked Runnin’ Rebels. The Broncos come in at 12-4 including a perfect 8-0 at home in Boise. And at 3-0 in the conference, they are one of two teams undefeated in Mountain West play along with an excellent Utah State team.
Boise State has already beaten six Top 100 teams this season and in their last two games. They beat 25th-ranked Colorado State here at home and then impressively handed 44th-ranked Nevada just their second loss of the season on the road in Reno. And yet, Boise is only a five-point favorite in this spot? It seems this line has a huge letdown factor built in after the win in Nevada, but we don’t buy it.
3-Point Defense Key
Besides, it is not as if UNLV may not be in letdown mode also after a narrow 87-86 home loss to that Utah State team now 4-0 in the conference. And that heartbreaker dropped the Rebels to 8-7 overall and 1-2 in conference play. Also, while we appreciate the importance of this game for UNLV, we simply feel Boise State is the much better team here.
Another factor that could decide this game is 3-point shooting. You see, both squads come in slightly above the national average of 33.4%, with Boise at 34.5% and UNLV at 34.0%. However, there is a humongous difference on the defensive end, where Boise State is an excellent 18th in 3-poing defense while the Rebels are an abysmal 251st.
The bottom line here is that if both teams avoid the letdown factor (or even if both let down equally), we cannot justify this low spread with Boise State at home and, in our minds, the clearly superior team. Lay the cheap points with the Broncos.
Predicted Score: Boise State 76 – UNLV 64
NCAAB Pick: Boise State -5 (-110) at Heritage Sports

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.