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College Basketball Best Bets January 10: Buckeyes to Prevail at Home

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Roddy Gayle Jr. #1 of the Ohio State Buckeyes celebrates after defeating the West Virginia Mountaineers during the Legends of Basketball Showcase at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse on December 30, 2023 in Cleveland, Ohio. Ron Schwane/Getty Images/AFP

Top NCAAB Pick: Ohio State -1.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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We have another nice NCAA Basketball card on Wednesday with 38 games on the main board, and we are here with our three best bets for the night.

These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences. We have one such mid-major best bet Wednesday, but our other two wagers are on major matchups from the Big Ten and Pac 12.


Southern Illinois Salukis vs. Valparaiso Beacons

Wednesday, January 10, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Athletics-Recreation Center


We begin in the Missouri Valley Conference, where we realize betting an Over in a game involving Valparaiso can make you squeamish. But we think Southern Illinois can do enough of the heavy lifting against an awful defense to get Over this low total.

Conference Profile Changing?

The MVC has historically been one of the lowest-scoring conferences in the country. That may now be starting to change. The conference currently has five teams in the top 100 in offensive efficiency, including Southern Illinois. The Salukis grade out at 109.5 points per 100 possessions, a big jump from 101.0 points last season.

The end-result has been an 11-4 record and a current 5-game winning streak. They are 3-1 in MVC play with the loss coming early in the season to conference-leading Indiana State. The Salukis are 34th in the country in eFG% thanks to ranking 20th in 3-point shooting at 38.2%, making this an excellent matchup against a poor defense.

Among Worst Teams in Country

The Beacons are among the worst teams in the country, ranking 332nd in offensive efficiency and 255th in defensive efficiency. Their 203rd ranking in 3-point defense is especially critical here against the SIU perimeter sharpshooters. Valpo enters this game on a 9-game losing streak after a 4-2 start, although none of the wins were against a team ranked higher than 219th on Kenpom.

With all of that said, if we are correct about Southern Illinois scoring in the mid-70s, then the Beacons would only need to reach the 60s for this game to clear 135. Well, as bad as Valparaiso has been, they have only scored below 60 points in three of their 15 games, and they scored 59 points on two of those occasions.

The Pick

We see no reason why Southern Illinois should not continue their excellent 3-point shooting tonight, leaving Valparaiso not too much to do to clear the consensus total of 135. So bet the Over on Wednesday.

Predicted Score: Southern Illinois 77 – Valparaiso 65

NCAAB Pick: Over 135 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Wisconsin Badgers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

Wednesday, January 10, 2024 – 08:30 PM ET at Value City Arena


We have a huge Big Ten matchup with a Wisconsin team ranked 12th on Kenpom visiting 34th-ranked Ohio State. The lower-ranked Buckeyes are tiny home favorites here, and we expect them to prevail against what may be an overrated Badgers defense on Wednesday.

Not Normal Rebounding Edge

Wisconsin comes in at 11-3 with the three losses all coming to teams in the Kenpom Top 100. They are 3-0 in Big Ten play. The Badgers look nicely balanced in the efficiency ratings, ranking seventh offensively and 33rd defensively, but it is that defensive rating we are not quite sold on, especially for this game.

You see, that ranking is mostly fueled by ranking seventh in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage, but that gets neutralized tonight by Ohio State ranking 16th in offensive rebounding percentage. When you take away Wisconsin’s normal rebounding edge, their defense ranks only 230th in eFG% allowed and 271st in 3-point defense.

Bucks Should Take Advantage

The Buckeyes come in with the better record at 12-3, but they are just 2-2 in conference play after a bad loss at 93rd-ranked Indiana on Saturday. That should have Ohio State in an ornery mood here for what is now a huge game for them to keep up with the conference leaders. And they certainly have the talent to shake off that Indiana loss, especially now playing at home.

The Bucks are well-balanced themselves, ranking 22nd on offensive efficiency and 65th in defensive efficiency with their defensive eFG% allowed of 46.6% much better than Wisconsin’s 51.5%. But the key to this game is on the offensive end, where Ohio State is 45th from 3-point range at 37.0%. They should be able to exploit the aforementioned weak Badgers’ perimeter defense.

That expected success beyond the arc, combined with the Buckeyes returning home in bounce-back mode after a bad road loss and also needing this game more, all has us betting Ohio State at home tonight.

Predicted Score: Ohio State 76 – Wisconsin 69

NCAAB Pick: Ohio State -1.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports

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Washington State Cougars vs. USC Trojans

Wednesday, January 10, 2024 – 10:30 PM ET at Galen Center


We finish up with a late-night Pac-12 matchup. We are betting the USC Trojans to ride high with a safe double-digit triumph over Washington State.

Higher Ranking

Despite sitting at a disappointing 8-7 —61st on Kenpom—, USC is still ranked 12 spots higher than 73rd-ranked Washington State at 10-5. That undoubtedly has to do with the Trojans facing a brutal non-conference schedule rated 45th on Kenpom while the Cougars feasted on a non-conference slate rated 319th.

The Trojans do have three wins over Top 100 teams, and after opening up Pac-12 play 0-2 with road losses against the two Oregon schools, they have evened their conference mark at 2-2 with two wins here at home. Their latest win was 93-79 over Stanford, the same Stanford team that scored 100 points in an earlier upset of Arizona.

Defense Exposed?

As mentioned, Washington State did not face much out of conference. That lack of adequate preparation has led to a 1-3 start in Pac-12 play. The huge jump in competition has especially manifested itself on the defensive end. Just a cursory glance shows the Cougars an above-average 80th in defensive efficiency overall at an even 100 points per 100 possessions.

However, over their four conference games, Wazzou is 12th (dead last) in the conference in defensive efficiency at a hideous 113.9 points per 100 possessions. The Cougs are also dead last during conference play in 3-point defense at an obscene 46.0%, making for a nice matchup for a USC offensive ranked 49th overall in 3-point shooting at 36.9% (national average 33.3%).

The Pick

So due to schedules, what we have here is a USC team better than its 8-7 record hosting a Washington State team not as good as its 10-5 mark. With that becoming more apparent during conference play, lay the points with the Trojans.

Predicted Score: USC 82 – Washington State 70

NCAAB Pick: USC -6.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.