Top NCAAB Pick: Colorado State -3.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Boomaker Review)
We have a decent-sized NCAAB card on Tuesday as conference play commences across the country with the start of the new year. We are here with our evening’s three best bets for you to play at the main offshore sportsbooks.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences. Such is the case on Tuesday with all three of our best bets coming from mid-major conferences.
Belmont Bruins vs. Southern Illinois Salukis
Tuesday, January 02, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Banterra Center
We begin in the Missouri Valley Conference where we expect the far superior Southern Illinois defense to key a safe covering victory at home over Belmont.
Solid On Both Ends
The Salukis come in at 9-4 overall and 1-1 in conference after beating Illinois-Chicago 62-50 in MVC play Saturday. Southern Illinois owns one Kenpom Top 100 win over Oklahoma State while steadily climbing the rankings, and the Salukis are now in the Top 100 themselves at 98th after beginning the year ranked 188th.
While being held below their scoring average of 75.5 points in Saturday’s win against a very good Illinois-Chicago defense, SIU still ranks 33rd in the country in eFG% thanks to hitting on 38.5% of their 3-point attempts and 53.0% of their 2-pointers. The Salukis should have an easier time against a more giving Belmont defense, and SIU is a well-balanced team ranked 50th in eFG% allowed defensively.
What Defense?
The Bruins are an identical 9-4 and already 2-0 in conference play, but they have no Top 100 wins and are ranked considerably lower than SIU at 148th on Kenpom. Three of their four losses coming to teams ranked 133rd or worse is not helping their cause either.
Belmont is comparable to Southern Illinois offensively, in fact ranking a bit higher in eFG% at 24th, but what most separates these teams is their poor defense. The Bruins rank 244th in defensive efficiency and 284th in eFG% allowed. This is a defense that applies no pressure, ranking 258th in turnover percentage against and that also allows too many second chancers ranking 231st in defensive rebounding.
The Pick
In a matchup where both offenses are close statistically, Southern Illinois should have the easier time scoring tonight going from facing a stingy Illinois-Chicago defense to this porous Belmont defense in a span of three days, so give the points.
Predicted Score: Southern Illinois 80 – Belmont 70
NCAAB Pick: Southern Illinois -5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Charlotte 49ers vs. SMU Mustangs
Tuesday, January 02, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Moody Coliseum
Moving on to AAC play, we think points will be at a premium when Charlotte visits SMU on Tuesday and are thus betting the Under in Dallas.
Vastly Improved
The Mustangs are coming off a disappointing season last year where they went 10-22 while ranking 152nd in defensive efficiency, but they are vastly improved this season while already almost at that win mark at 9-4. And the key to the early success has been a defense ranked 27th in efficiency.
SMU is allowing just 62.2 points per game thanks to ranking an outstanding second on eFG% against, allowing opponents to hit on just 41.6 of 2-point attempts (4th) and 26.5% of 3-point attempts (8th). That great defense has helped offset an offense ranking 155th in points scored at 76.4 per game, although a big part of that is pace-related, with SMU ranking 213th in Tempo Rating.
Even Slower
The 49ers play even slower than the Mustangs, ranking 338th in Tempo Rating while averaging only 68.7 PPG. In a matchup where both teams are so methodical, we think that should result in both teams being held below their respective season averages. That is especially true with the Charlotte defense, while not at the elite SMU level, being above average.
The Niners rank 104th in defensive efficiency at 100.7 points per 100 possessions against a national average of 104.2, and they are also better than average in eFG%, 2-point percentage, and 3-point percentage allowed. On top of that, Charlotte does not yield many second chances, ranking 44th in defensive rebounding percentage.
The Pick
So, with two teams that like to play slow with one defense elite and the other above average, expect a bit of a snooze-fest from a fan’s perspective, which is obviously great news for Under bettors.
Predicted Score: SMU 65 – Charlotte 57
NCAAB Pick: Under 134.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
New Mexico Lobos vs. Colorado State Rams
Tuesday, January 02, 2024 – 10:30 PM ET at Moby Arena
We wrap up our card with a great Mountain West Conference matchup of 12-1 teams. Colorado State has done it against the tougher schedule, so we look for the Rams to get the covering win over New Mexico at home in Fort Collins.
5 Wins Against Top 100
Each of these teams suffered its only loss against a Saint Mary’s team ranked 44th on Kenpom, but the Rams also have five wins against the Top 100 with three of those being against the Top 50, and two of them against the Top 25 (Creighton, Colorado). That has helped Colorado State elevate to 30th on Kenpom after beginning the year ranked 89th.
The Rams are averaging a robust 84.7 points per game, leading the country in shooting percentage at 53.2%, and their Kenpom components are just as great. They are 11th in offensive efficiency and third in eFG%, hitting on an amazing 61.6% of 2-point attempts as well as 37.6% of 3-pointers despite the tough schedule, and they don’t beat themselves ranking 13th in turnover percentage.
Defense Exposed Tonight?
While the Lobos are also 12-1, they have just two wins over the Top 100 with the best being against a UC Irvine team ranked 70th at the time, so their schedule has not been quite as daunting as that of Colorado State. New Mexico does have the better defense on paper here ranking 32nd in efficiency, but that is mainly to ranking 22nd in turnover percentage forced.
The Lobos rank lower than expected in eFG% allowed in 49th, and they are 109th in 3-point defense. Given that New Mexico’s normal defensive pressure gets offset here by a veteran Rams offense that does not turn the ball over much, we feel the weaker eFG% allowed will come more into play facing what has been an unstoppable offense thus far, especially playing in Colorado.
The Pick
The Rams have scored fewer than 80 points just three times this season and only once at home, and we look for Colorado State to make an early statement in the conference with a safe victory.
Predicted Score: Colorado State 85 – New Mexico 77
NCAAB Pick: Colorado State -3.5 (-110) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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