Top NCAAB Pick: Cal State Bakersfield +5 (-110) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The Thursday NCAA Basketball card is a bit lacking in high-profile matchups. However, we still see value to be had in the minor conferences, so we are here with our three best bets for the evening.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences for you to play at top-rated sportsbooks. That is certainly the case on Thursday as we dig deep, with our best bets hailing from the CAA, Big West and WAC conferences.
Hofstra Pride vs. Hampton Pirates
Thursday, February 08, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Convocation Center (VA)
We start with a CAA matchup, where we are banking on an Over when Hofstra travels to Virginia to take on hapless Hampton.
A Replay of the First Meeting?
The Pride comes in at 13-10 and 6-4 in the conference, including a relatively high-scoring 86-77 win over Hampton back home in Hempstead.
We see a similar pace again tonight even going on the road with Hampton having one of the worst defenses in the country.
Hofstra is an excellent shooting team ranking 31st in the land in eFG%, hitting on 54.9% of 2-pointers (31st) and 36.3% of 3-pointers (54th). Just like the first meeting, we look for the Pride to take advantage of a Pirates defense ranked 348th out of 362 Division I teams in defensive efficiency, as well as 284th in eFG% allowed.
Winless in CAA
The Pirates are still a woeful 5-18 even after snapping a 13-game losing streak with a 2-point non-conference win over Howard on Saturday on a neutral floor in New Jersey.
Hampton remains winless in CAA play, obviously bringing up the rear at 0-10. And their already horribly inefficient defense has actually been worse in conference play allowing a disgusting 120.9 points per 100 possessions.
We can easily see Hofstra cracking 80 again, which would mean Hampton would only need to score in the mid-60s to clear this Over. The Pirates scored 77 points in that first meeting on Long Island in a game totaling 163 points. And despite the 0-10 record, Hampton is averaging 70.0 points inside the conference, which should be good enough here.
The Pick
With all things considered, this total seems rather light with Hampton’s non-existent defense and the 163 points scored in the first meeting. So, we are betting the Over in Hampton Thursday.
Predicted Score: Hofstra 84 – Hampton 73
NCAAB Pick: Over 146.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners vs. UC Riverside Highlanders
Thursday, February 08, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at SRC Arena
We venture into the Big West for our second pick, where we see a pretty even matchup between CS Bakersfield and UC Riverside. Thus, we think the spread is a bit high, so we are taking the points with the Roadrunners.
Second Chances Help
These teams are ninth and tenth respectively in an 11-team conference.
It is the underdogs from Bakersfield that have a better overall record at 9-13 and sit ninth in the Big West at 4-7. The Roadrunners are by no means a powerhouse, ranking 201st in offensive efficiency and 214th in defensive efficiency. However, as you will see in a bit, those rankings do not differ much from UC Riverside.
The Roadrunners are also the better team here at generating second chances, ranking a good 65th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage.
Comparatively, the Highlanders are 162nd in that same metric, and all the additional second opportunities for Bakersfield can loom large with these teams so close in other areas.
Where’s the Separation?
Riverside comes in at just 8-15 overall and 3-8 in the Big West, and it is not as if they have a huge Home Court Advantage.
In fact, the Highlanders rank 357th out of 362 D1 teams according to Kenpom in HCA at just +1.9. UCR ranks 317th in the nation in scoring at a scant 68.1 points per game.
Those numbers do not exactly exude confidence in what is currently a consensus 5-point favorite. As alluded to earlier, the Highlanders are not much better than Bakersfield in offensive efficiency, ranking 256th.
Moreover, they are even a tad worse in defensive efficiency, ranking 224th.
The Pick
So, with these teams very close metrically and UC Riverside having an almost non-existent HCA, our bet is taking the points with CS Bakersfield Thursday.
Predicted Score: UC Riverside 65 – Cal State Bakersfield 64
NCAAB Pick: Cal State Bakersfield +5 (-110) at Heritage Sports
Abilene Christian Wildcats vs. Seattle Redhawks
Thursday, February 08, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Climate Pledge Arena
Our third and final best bet comes in the wacky WAC. We see Seattle scoring in the 80s Thursday against Abilene Christian. While we have no interest in the big spread, we are betting the Over in this contest.
Can Dominate Inside
The Redhawks are 13-9 overall and at 6-5 in the conference.
That makes them part of a 5-team logjam in the WAC within 1.5 games of second place behind runaway leader Grand Canyon. And it appears Seattle has a nice matchup offensively here as they try to improve their standing.
The main reason for that is the tallest player in the normal Abilene Christian rotation is 6’8”. It is no surprise that the Wildcats are 287th in the land in 2-point defense. That is an area Seattle can exploit all night long. Thus, they should be able to surpass their home scoring average for the season of 76.2 PPG.
Decent Beyond the Arc
The small-ball lineup has resulted in Abilene going 8-13 overall and just 3-7 in the WAC.
However, if Seattle does indeed approach or surpass 80 points tonight, it would leave a lot of wiggle room in terms of the Over, with ACU only needing to score in the low 60s.
The Wildcats have scored at least 60 points in 19 of their 21 games so far, and they scored 59 points on one of the two occasions they fell short.
This is not a bad 3-point shooting team at 34,7%, above the national average of 33.7%. Furthermore, they are a respectable fourth during conference play beyond the arc.
The Pick
As long as Seattle follows the probable game-script of feeding the ball inside against an outsized Abilene Christian team, we think the Wildcats can do enough offensively themselves to cash this Over.
Predicted Score: Seattle 83 – Abilene Christian 68
NCAAB Pick: Over 143 (-115) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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