Top NCAAB Pick: Colorado State -5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We have 32 conference matchups on the NCAA Basketball card on Tuesday.
After going 3-0 our last time in this space last Thursday, we return with three more best bets.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences for you to bet on at top-rated online sportsbooks. Such is the case Tuesday with three mid-major best bets, with two in the Mountain West and one from the MAC.
Ohio Bobcats vs. Ball State Cardinals
Tuesday, February 06, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Worthen Arena
We are bringing you some MAC-tion to begin the evening. We are expecting plenty of points in this matchup and are thus betting the Over when Ball State hosts Ohio in Muncie.
Big Turnover Difference
Ohio is 12-10 overall and tied for fourth in the MAC at 6-4.
The Bobcats are above average in offensive efficiency but below average defensively at an identical 109.7 points per 100 possessions in both metrics (national average 106.3). We see their offensive success continuing against a Ball State defense ranked a woeful 283rd in efficiency and 262nd in eFG% allowed.
We also see the Bobcats getting many good looks offensively and scoring transition points off their defense due to a turnover advantage on both ends.
Offensively, Ohio is a nice 22nd in the country in turnover percentage while Ball State is 202nd in turnovers forced. On the other end, Ball is a sloppy 269th in turnover percentage while Ohio is above average defensively at 18.3%.
Can Hang With Threes
Ball State is an identical 12-10 overall, although the Cardinals lag in the MAC at 4-6.
When they are not turning the ball over, the Cards are actually a good shooting team with an eFG% of 52.7% (national average 50.4%), so we see them also helping this Over along against the below-average Ohio defense.
The Cardinals are particularly good beyond the 3-point arc, ranking 22nd nationally at 37.8%. This figure jumps to an outstanding 39.7% when playing at home. Furthermore, Ohio has been vulnerable against the 3-ball during MAC play ranking ninth in the conference in 3-point defense at a generous 37.0%.
The Pick
Therefore, we see means for each team to light up the scoreboard and are looking for a rather safe Over on Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Ohio 81 – Ball State 78
NCAAB Pick: Over 149 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Boise State Broncos vs. Colorado State Rams
Tuesday, February 06, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Moby Arena
Our final two best bets Tuesday have similar themes with home court meaning so much in the Mountain West Conference. We look for Colorado State to take advantage of playing in the altitude of Fort Collins with a big win over Boise State.
MWC Home Dominance
The MWC has the second-best cumulative ATS record for home teams in conference play this year at 29-20, 59.2%, +6.17 units, behind only Conference USA. Furthermore, the top five teams in the MWC conference standings are a collective 17-6. 73.9%, +9.31 units.
Granted the Rams barely slip into that group in fifth at 5-4 in the conference. However, their home/away splits are still drastic.
The Rams are 17-5 and ranked 34th overall on Kenpom, making them the third-highest-ranked MWC team despite being fifth in the conference. Colorado State is 11th in the land in eFG%, fueled by ranking seventh in 2-point shooting at a blazing 58.4%. And the Rams are 11-1 at home, where they are averaging 84.3 points with an average winning margin of +14.6 points.
Bottom Half in eFG%
Boise State is 16-6 overall and tied atop the conference standings with Utah State at 7-2, and yet the Broncos rank 11 spots lower than CSU on Kenpom at 45th.
Boise is 27th in the nation in defensive efficiency, but they are only 238th in 2-point defense, making for a horrible matchup against a Rams offense that is elite closer to the hoop.
Furthermore, we do not see the Broncos keeping up offensively with a unit that is only seventh in the conference during MWC play in eFG%. And unlike CSU, Boise is shooting an ordinary 50.5% on 2-point shots within the conference. Granted the Broncos are decent beyond the arc at 35.5%, but we do not think that is good enough to make up for their struggles inside.
The Pick
So, with Colorado being great at home and the higher ranked team to begin with on Kenpom, give the moderate points in Fort Collins.
Predicted Score: Colorado State 78 – Boise State 68
NCAAB Pick: Colorado State -5 (-110) at Bovada
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Utah State Aggies
Tuesday, February 06, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Dee Glen Smith Spectrum
Continuing our Mountain West home theme, we expect conference-leading Utah State to have an easier time than the line implies hosting Nevada in this matchup.
Undefeated in Logan
Utah State is 19-3 and tied with Boise State for first in the MWC at 7-2. They are also undefeated at home in Logan at 10-0 winning by a whopping average of +21.6 points.
The Aggies are well-balanced on both ends, ranking 43rd in offensive efficiency and 48th defensively.
Furthermore, they lead the conference in offensive efficiency during MWC play with a fat 117.2 points per 100 possessions. As we alluded to, that offense has been almost unstoppable at home averaging 87.0 points per game. Considering that the Aggies are solid defensively, this is a tough team to beat and all three of their losses have come to Top 100 teams with two against the Top 20.
Lost the Last 3 on Road
We were rather high on Nevada earlier this season. The Wolf Pack still sit at 17-5 overall.
However, they faced a non-conference schedule ranked 227th on Kenpom and Nevada has been exposed a bit in Mountain West play going 4-4. We do not like the direction the Wolf Pack are going on the road.
Yes, the Pack is a commendable 3-3 in true road games, but they began 3-0 out of conference with two of those wins coming at 184th-ranked Hawaii and 196th-ranked Fresno State. They have since gone 0-3 on the road in conference play with the leap in competition, and things obviously get no easier here tonight.
The Pick
With Utah State undefeated while blowing teams away at home and Nevada getting exposed on the road in Mountain West play, give the points to the Aggies.
Predicted Score: Utah State 80 – Nevada 69
NCAAB Pick: Utah State -5.5 (-109) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.