Top NCAAB Pick: South Florida -8.5 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We have another nice Wednesday slate of NCAAB action with 29 games on the main board. After going 2-1 last night, we return with three more best bets for tonight’s docket.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences for you to play at top-rated sportsbooks. Such is the case with two of our best bets Wednesday from the AAC and Atlantic 10, although we do wrap things up with a major Big East matchup.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. South Florida Bulls
Wednesday, February 14, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Yuengling Center
We start in the AAC, where the conference leaders from South Florida have a nice matchup against Tulsa. With the Golden Hurricane figuring to struggle offensively, look for a big double-digit Bulls win.
Big Edge Beyond the Arc
The Bulls are riding a 9-game winning streak, leaving them at 17-5 overall and atop the AAC at 10-1.
The only conference loss came on the road against a good UAB team that sits third in the conference at 8-3, so South Florida is a perfect 5-0 at home in ACC play.
The USF defense ranks in the top half of the conference during conference play in eFG% allowed, grading out 5th at 47.5% (national average 50.4%). That is more than good enough with the Bulls ranking 2nd in the conference in eFG% offensively while leading the AAC in 3-point shooting at a blazing 38.7%.
How Will They Score?
The Golden Hurricane are 12-11 overall.
However, they beat up on a ridiculously easy non-conference schedule, starting 9-3 against a slate rated 360th out of 362 teams in Division I. They have received a dose of reality during conference play, sitting tied for 10th at 3-8.
They also sit 11th in the conference in offensive efficiency. In fact, it has been a struggle all season offensively for Tulsa even with the creampuff early schedule.
The Hurricane rank 244th nationally in efficiency and 192nd in eFG%.
Unlike USF, Tulsa does not shoot the 3-ball well at only 32.4% (241st). And for good measure, Tulsa is a sloppy 289th in turnover percentage. They do not generate second chances at 282nd in offensive rebounding.
The Pick
Add that all up and we do not see Tulsa getting out of the mid-60’s here against a South Florida team averaging 78.8 points at home. So, lay the points with the Bulls in Tampa.
Predicted Score: South Florida 80 – Tulsa 66
NCAAB Pick: South Florida -8.5 (-105) at BetOnline
St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs. Fordham Rams
Wednesday, February 14, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Rose Hill Gymnasium
Next, we head to the Atlantic 10 Conference where we see an upset brewing. For whatever reason, Fordham has lost five straight games at home. We feel that sets up great line value here and are thus backing the Rams against St. Bonaventure.
Buy Low Spot?
The Rams enter this game at 10-13 overall and 4-6 in the A10. However, their home/away splits are intriguing.
Excluding neutral-site games, Fordham has dropped to 4-9 at home this season with their anomalous five straight home losses. Yet, this is not a team devoid of ability, as they are 4-2 on the road, including an 80-74 win at St. Bonaventure on January 13th.
We have no other word for the Rams’ home losing streak other than fluky.
Yet, this line is seemingly skewed a bit due to that streak against a Bonnies team that is struggling on the road. That win in January was the third straight for the Rams in this head-to-head series, as Fordham took advantage of a suspect Bonnies interior defense by making 19-of-30 (65.3%) of their 2-point shots.
Unworthy Road Chalk?
The Bonnies come in at 14-9 with a losing 5-6 conference mark.
After winning their first three road games this season against weak competition, Bonnie has now lost four straight road games all inside the A10.
Furthermore, their scoring average drops to 71.1 points per game on the road while Fordham averages 74.4 points at home.
If those numbers do not give enough pause in backing St. Bonaventure as a road favorite, consider that the weakness that caused them to lose the first meeting still exists. That is because the Bonnies are 269th in the country in 2-point defense at 52.0%. They have been worse in conference play at 53.2% (national average 50.3%).
The Pick
So, while Fordham may not score 80 again like the first meeting, we still feel the Rams can do enough damage against the weak Bonnies’ interior to snap the fluky 5-game home losing streak.
Predicted Score: Fordham 73 – St. Bonaventure 70
NCAAB Pick: Fordham +3.5 (-108) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Xavier Musketeers vs. Seton Hall Pirates
Wednesday, February 14, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Prudential Center
We conclude with perhaps the biggest game of the night in the Big East. We foresee both teams having offensive success and are thus betting the Over when Xavier pays a visit to a Seton Hall team sitting on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
Need This Win
The Pirates have gone from solidly in the Big Dance to being on the bubble by losing four of their last six games with two of those losses being at home.
That makes this a huge game to restore their status with the Selection Committee, as Seton Hall is now 15-9 and 8-5 in the Big East.
That should guarantee a maximum effort from the Pirates tonight. They have the added motivation of revenge for an earlier 74-54 loss at Xavier, with those 54 points marking a season-low. The Pirates remain great at getting second chances, ranking ninth in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. They stayed true to form that first meeting with 23 offensive boards.
That makes the 54 points seem unlucky, so look for more scoring with a similar effort tonight, especially averaging 77.7 points at home.
Efficient Offense
Xavier is 13-11 overall and 7-6 in the Big East, yet they rank 40th on Kenpom, 30 spots higher than 70th-ranked Seton Hall.
Much of that has to do with facing the much better non-conference schedule (57th on Kenpom), which included quality wins over 24th-ranked Saint Mary’s and 36th-ranked Cincinnati.
The Musketeers are efficient offensively at 113.0 points per 100 possessions (national average 105.7). They are the better 3-point shooting team at 34.6% overall and 35.4% in the conference (national average 33.7%). While Xavier is not at the same elite level as Seton Hall in offensive rebounding, the Musketeers are still a good 61st at 33.0% (national average 29.1%).
The Pick
Thus, we see both teams finding ways to have offensive success in this contest, which has us betting the Over in Newark.
Predicted Score: Seton Hall 79 – Xavier 78
NCAAB Pick: Over 145.5 (-108) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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