Top NCAAB Pick: Oregon State +6.5 (–110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Thursday brings us a rather small NCAA Basketball card, but we are still here with our three best bets for the slate, all taking place on the West Coast.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences. We have two such small-conference plays on Thursday, as well as the UCLA against Oregon State Pac-12 battle.
So let’s dive into our three games of the night and see how to profit with them at our main offshore sportsbooks.
Sacramento State Hornets vs. Idaho Vandals
Thursday, December 28, 2023 – 09:00 PM ET at ICCU Arena
We begin our card in the Big Sky Conference where we are taking the points in a projected mild upset by Sacramento State over an Idaho team that is a weak favorite over anyone in the conference opener for both teams.
Lower-Ranked Favorite
The favored Vandals are the lower-ranked team by 20 spots on Kenpom at a poor 315th overall. This is not the type of team you want to be giving any points with. Moreover, the squad is extremely bad on both ends of the court, ranking 283rd in offensive efficiency and a horrific 330th out of 362 Division I teams in defensive efficiency.
We simply do not see Idaho scoring enough points to even win outright. Besides being horribly inefficient on the offense, the Vandals do not get many second chances either, ranking 347th in offensive rebounding percentage. Yes, Idaho has managed to go 6-6, but that is a mirage, as they have beaten two sub-level teams and just one team ranked higher than 258th in 168th-ranked UC San Diego.
Second Chances the Key
Idaho also comes off a 15-point road loss to a UC Riverside team that is quite comparable to Sacramento State. Yes, there is a reason the Hornets are underdogs here, as they come in at 3-8 and they struggle offensively themselves, ranking 286th in efficiency. The primary reason for that is sloppy ball-handling and that gets offset a bit here by Idaho, ranking 337th in turnover percentage forced at 14.0%.
Also, one thing that the Hornets do well, and probably the biggest key to this matchup, is getting second chances. Ranking a good 76th in offensive rebounding percentage at 33.2%, well above the national average of 29.6%, Those extra possessions become vital in an ugly game with neither team shooting well.
The Pick
So with these teams both bad in most other areas, we feel the extra points that Sacramento State will earn off of offensive rebounds is enough for us to take the points in a projected upset.
Predicted Score: Sacramento State 70 – Idaho 65
NCAAB Pick: Sacramento State +3 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
UCLA Bruins vs. Oregon State Beavers
Thursday, December 28, 2023 – 10:00 PM ET at Gill Coliseum
In our only major conference matchup for the evening, this UCLA spread seems to be inflated based on reputation, so we will gladly take the points with Oregon State as a home underdog.
Not Your Father’s UCLA Team
In fact, this may be the worst UCLA team in many years, as the Bruins enter their Pac-12 opener with a losing record at 5-6 while coming in on a 4-game losing streak. To be fair though, they are still ranked a respectable 84th on Kenpom, as four of their six losses have come to teams ranked in the top 30.
But the Bruins do not have that excuse in their last two games, losing both at home to 70th-ranked Maryland by nine points and, most disturbingly, to 237th-ranked CS Northridge. Despite the tough early schedule, UCLA has yet to beat a team ranked higher than 244th, and that was by just one point over UC Riverside. This is a legitimately bad shooting UCLA team ranked 321st in eFG%.
Better Record
Meanwhile, Oregon State has a much better record here, entering at 8-3. It must be stated that, like the Bruins, the Beavers have not beaten much either, beating 95th-ranked Appalachian State at home while not defeating any other team ranked higher than 181st. At the same time, Oregon State is 0-3 against teams in the Kenpom top 60.
UCLA lies in between at 84th, and Oregon State is not a great shooting team either, ranking 233rd in eFG%. However, that is still nearly 90 spots higher than the Bruins and the win over Appalachian State remains the best win by either team. Not to mention Oregon State being in the better form having won five straight, albeit against weak competition.
The Pick
This play comes down to the inflated spread, as we can see UCLA rallying the troops and winning the Pac-12 opener with a team ranked over 100 spots higher overall than Oregon State on Kenpom. But with all the other factors mentioned, we see this game going down to the wire, so we are taking the generous points.
Predicted Score: UCLA 68 – Oregon State 66
NCAAB Pick: Oregon State +6.5 (–110) at BetOnline
Cal State Northridge Matadors vs. Cal Poly Mustangs
Thursday, December 28, 2023 – 10:00 PM ET at Robert A. Mott Athletics Center
Moving on to the Big West Conference opener for both teams, we cannot resist betting against one of the truly worst teams in the country, Cal Poly, at a reasonable price and are thus laying the moderate points on the road with CS Northridge.
Can They Do Anything Well?
The Mustangs are ranked 326th overall on Kenpom. Not only are they badly inefficient on both ends of the court, ranking 338th offensively and 263rd defensively, but you will be hard-pressed to find one single component on either end that they are above average.
Offensively, Poly is 299th in eFG% thanks to ranking 298th in 2-point shooting (46.0%) and 262nd in 3-point shooting (30.6%). They do not generate second chances at 289th in offensive rebounding. The news is not much better defensively, despite being slightly above average in 2-point defense at 49.0%, as that gets offset by ranking 257th in 3-point defense and 300th in defensive rebounding.
Winning Road Record
Meanwhile, the Matadors come in at 9-3, including a winning 4-2 record in true road games. That road mark includes a win at UCLA mentioned in an earlier write-up, and while that win may not be as impressive as it would have been in previous seasons, it is still a top 100 win, making the matchup against Cal Poly seem not too intimidating.
Northridge is right around the national average in eFG% (50.4% vs. 50.0%) and they are an excellent rebounding team ranking 62nd in offensive rebounding percentage and an outstanding 12th nationally in defensive rebounding percentage. Besides the offense eFG% looking better with more shots, they will not allow second chances to an already abysmal shooting Cal Poly team.
The Pick
So while we get that Northridge is on the road, this still seems like a light line for a team that has already beaten better teams on the road than Poly, so bet the Matadors as road chalk.
Predicted Score: CS Northridge 71 – Cal Poly 61
NCAAB Pick: CS Northridge -4.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
