Top NCAAB Pick: Arizona –7 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We have another nice NCAA Basketball card on Wednesday with more high-profile matchups, and as usual, we are here with our three best bets for the slate.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences. While we have one such smaller conference matchup on Wednesday, our other two best bets provided by our main offshore sportsbooks are in the marquee North Carolina vs. Oklahoma and Alabama vs. Arizona matchups.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Wednesday, December 20, 2023 – 09:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center
Oklahoma enters this matchup unbeaten at 10-0, but we are betting on North Carolina to put those undefeated dreams to rest with a covering win as small favorites in a semi-home game, as the Tar Heels should have most of the support in Charlotte.
Toughened By Schedule
The Heels look to rebound after dropping two straight games to drop to 7-3, but those two losses were to defending national champion Connecticut, currently ranked fourth overall on Kenpom, and to 21st ranked Kentucky by four points, and their first loss earlier in the year was by two points against Villanova in overtime.
Carolina also owns a win over a Tennessee team ranked sixth at the time while scoring 100 points against one of the best defenses in the country. So this squad is certainly battle-tested, and while Oklahoma is eighth in the country in defensive efficiency, no team has been able to shut down the Tar Heels yet with their fewest points scored all year being 76 against UConn.
May Struggle Inside
Now Oklahoma is not a fluke, as while their overall schedule may not be as strong as North Carolina’s, the Sooners have legitimized their record by beating four Quadrant I schools in their last six games. And they are no slouches offensively either, ranking 34th in the land in offensive efficiency,
However, while Oklahoma has the better overall defense in this game, North Carolina probably has the most important game-changer defensively in 6’11” center Armando Bacot. You see, Oklahoma does most of its damage inside, ranking seventh in the country in 2-point shooting at 60.5%. But teams have struggled attacking the basket against UNC with Bacot being a superior rim protector.
The Pick
With Oklahoma not expected to have their usual success near the basket and not being a great 3-point shooting team at 34.8% (114th), bet North Carolina to cover this small spot in front of an overwhelmingly partisan crowd in Charlotte.
Predicted Score: North Carolina 78 – Oklahoma 70
NCAAB Pick: North Carolina –3 (-104) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Santa Clara Broncos vs. San Jose State Spartans
Wednesday, December 20, 2023 – 10:00 PM ET at Provident Credit Union Event Center
In our only non-major best bet for this Wednesday matchup, look for an ample number of points to be scored from both sides to produce an Over when Santa Clara visits San Jose State.
Good Shooting and Ball Protection
San Jose State may be just average in offensive efficiency at 104.1 points per 100 possessions, but that figure is dragged down by being a poor offensive rebounding team, and we think that will get offset tonight by running their offense basically unabated. That is because the Spartans turn the ball over just 15.7% of the time against a national average of 17.9%, and Santa Clara is 284th in turnovers forced.
And the Spartans should get good looks of those sets, as they rank 72nd in eFG% at 53.0% with good balance, hitting on 53.3% of their 2-pointers and 35.1% of their 3-pointers. That has led to an average of 75.2 points per game, an average San Jose can top tonight given the expected lack of turnovers against a Broncos defense that applies very little pressure.
Fast Pace and Good Shooting
Santa Clara prefers to play at a fast pace, ranking 26th nationally in shortest average possession length at 15.5 seconds. They can shoot the ball while playing at that pace ranking closely behind San Jose State in eFG% in 77th at 52.9% against a national average of 50.0% even.
And unlike San Jose State, the Broncos are above average in offensive rebounding percentage at 32%, which should lead to added points via second chances. And let us not forget they are facing a Spartans defense ranking below average 170th in defensive efficiency.
The Pick
So we see enough to like for both offenses for them each to reach the upper 70s and maybe even tough 80, which has us betting the Over with this total set at 147.
Predicted Score: San Jose State 80 – Santa Clara 78
NCAAB Pick: Over 147 (–110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Arizona Wildcats
Wednesday, December 20, 2023 – 11:00 PM ET at Footprint Center
In a great late-night matchup, we actually see an easier win than the spread implies for Arizona when they take on Alabama in a semi-home game in Phoenix.
Defense the Difference
While both these offenses can score, we think the difference in this game will be Arizona’s vastly superior defense. The Wildcats are ranked third overall on Kenpom behind Houston and Purdue, but Arizona may be the most balanced of those three teams on both ends of the floor, ranking sixth in offensive efficiency and third in defensive efficiency.
And the Wildcats should be in a foul mood coming off their first loss of the season Saturday after an 8-0 start, a 92-84 setback to Purdue in a semi-road game in Indianapolis. Those 92 points allowed easily a season-high after a previous high of 73 points. We expect to see a return to Arizona’s more stout defensive ways tonight, now returning closer to home.
Good Defense Stops Good Offense?
Meanwhile, Alabama comes in leading the country in offensive efficiency, making for a great matchup against the aforementioned Arizona defense ranked third in efficiency. Thus, this contest should put the adage of “Good defense stops good offense” to the ultimate test.
We think that adage will hold true tonight with Arizona making the necessary defensive adjustments after having their worst defensive game of the season last out. But more important is the state of an Alabama defense ranking just 104th in efficiency, as that end of the court is the main reason why the Crimson Tide are just 6-4 despite scoring at will thus far.
The Pick
So while both offenses have been great, Arizona should have the easier time scoring tonight against the weaker Alabama defense, and that plus playing much closer to home has us laying the points with the Wildcats Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Arizona 91 – Alabama 79
NCAAB Pick: Arizona –7 (-110) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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