Top NCAAB Pick: Marquette –4.5 (-106) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We have a nice NCAA Basketball slate on Tuesday with some high-profile matchups, and we are here with our three best bets of the evening.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences. While we have one such smaller conference matchup on Tuesday, our other two best bets are in the higher profile Florida vs. Michigan and Marquette vs. Providence matchups.
Let’s dive into these three games and see which are the best for your betting at our main offshore sportsbooks!
Florida Gators vs. Michigan Wolverines
Tuesday, December 19, 2023 – 07:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center
While we understand Florida being favored in this contest over Michigan as the higher-rated team on a neutral court in Charlotte, we are taking the points with the Wolverines, as we are in fact projecting an outright upset.
Better Shooting Team
Michigan enters this contest at just 6-5, and yet they are still ranked 45th on Kenpom, only seven spots lower than 38th-ranked Florida at 7-3. Michigan has faced a brutal non-conference schedule that does not get much easier tonight. However, Michigan is easily the better shooting team here in a game that may come down to 3-point shooting.
Michigan is 13th in the country in eFG% at 57.3% while Florida is just 155th at 50.9%, and the Wolverines’ success is fueled by ranking 37th in 3-point shooting at 37.8% while facing a tough schedule. That makes this a nice matchup for Michigan, as while the Gators are 54th in defensive efficiency, they are only 251st in 3-point defense allowing a 34.7% success rate.
Can’t Exploit Michigan’s Weakness
Now, while Florida is 7-3, the Gators have just one win over a Kenpom top 60 team in 42nd-ranked Pittsburgh, while all three of their losses came against such teams. However, our biggest knock against the favored Gators is we do not expect them to be able to take advantage of Michigan’s biggest weakness.
You see, the Wolverines are 126th in defensive efficiency but they have been good in 2-point defense at 48.4%. Just like Florida, Michigan’s biggest weakness is 3-point defense ranking 299th, but unlike the Wolverines, the Gators lack the shooters to exploit that weakness ranking only 215th in 3-point shooting at 32.1%.
The Pick
So in a game that looks very close in all other aspects, the expected big edge in 3-point shooting has us taking the points with Michigan as we call for an outright upset in Charlotte.
Predicted Score: Michigan 85 – Florida 79
NCAAB Pick: Michigan +3.5 (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
North Dakota State Bison vs. Southern Illinois Salukis
Tuesday, December 19, 2023 – 08:00 PM ET at Banterra Center
In our lone venture outside of major-conference play Tuesday night, this total seems very deflated to us, so we are betting the Over when North Dakota State visits Southern Illinois in a non-conference matchup.
Not Your Typical MVC Team
The Missouri Valley Conference is known for its low scoring, but apparently, the Sulukis never received that memo during the non-conference part of their schedule with the fewest points they have scored out of conference so far being 68 (70 at home), and they even put up 101 in a home win over Saint Louis.
Southern Illinois is a greatly improved shooting team this season ranking 43rd in eFG% while hitting a whopping 38.4% of their 3-point shots (24th) and 52.5% of their 2-point shots against a national average of 50.2%. They should feast on a North Dakota State defense ranked 299th in efficiency, allowing a pitiful 109.9 points per 100 possessions, and 332nd in 3-point defense at 37.4%.
Can Shoot Threes Too
That porous defense is the main reason why the Bison are 7-5, as the offense has been above average at 105.4 points per 100 possessions for a team that protects the ball well with a below-average 16.4% turnover rate. That fine ball protection should continue against a Salukis defense, ranked just 199th in turnover percentage forced.
Most importantly, NDSU can also contribute to the scoring via 3-point shooting, as the Bison are just behind Southern Illinois in 27th nationally at 38.5%. Besides, if we are correct about SIU reaching the mid-70s here, then North Dakota State would only need to get into the 60s to clear this total.
The Pick
So the combination of both teams being ranked in the top 27 in the county in 3-point shooting and North Dakota State having one of the worst defenses in the land is enough to have us betting the Over at this seemingly low number.
Predicted Score: Southern Illinois 77 – North Dakota State 67
NCAAB Pick: Over 135.5 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Providence Friars
Tuesday, December 19, 2023 – 08:30 PM ET at Amica Mutual Pavilion
While it will probably be an electric environment in Providence Tuesday night, we feel the huge talent edge for Marquette will prevail at the end and we are betting on a safe road victory.
Great on Both Ends
The Golden Eagles come in ranked sixth overall on Kenpom and with good reason. This is one of the most balanced teams in the country ranking 12th in offensive efficiency at 118.4 points per 100 possessions and 19th in defensive efficiency at 94.3 points per 100 allowed.
Marquette is 9-2 with both losses coming against Kenpom’s top 20 teams, including a 3-point loss to second-ranked Purdue on a neutral court. The Eagles have a couple of nice top 20 wins against Kansas on neutral ground and Illinois on the road, as well as a good home win against 33rd-ranked Texas. We do not think a visit to 52nd-ranked Providence will be very intimidating.
Turnover Prone
We are not saying the Friars are a bad team by any means, as they too are 9-2 and undefeated at home at 8-0, including a nice home win over 17th-ranked Wisconsin. However, Marquette is a step up from even Wisconsin on both ends of the floor, and the other seven Providence home wins did not come against any team ranked higher than 220th on Kenpom.
We do not see the Friars keeping up offensively on this matchup while ranking 119th in efficiency. They have been terrible at ball protection despite a mostly weak schedule, ranking 289th in turnover percentage at 20.2%, and that poor percentage could increase against a Marquette defense ranked 14th in turnover percentage forced at 22.9%.
The Pick
So, while Providence may hang around a while just on emotion alone in front of a frenzied crowd, this far more talented Marquette team should pull away late to a nice covering victory.
Predicted Score: Marquette 80 – Providence 70
NCAAB Pick: Marquette –4.5 (-106) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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