Top NCAAB Pick: Seattle +9.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
It is another relatively small NCAA Basketball card Wednesday with only 11 games on the main board, but we are still here with our three best bets of the evening after going 2-1 on last night’s 10-game board, including an outright 12.5-point dog winner with Green Bay.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences. Such is the case on Wednesday, as we have no major-conference teams in any of our best bets, although we have an eclectic mix with one favorite, one underdog, and one total you can use at our main offshore sportsbooks.
Florida International Panthers vs. Florida Atlantic Owls
Wednesday, December 13, 2023 – 07:00 PM ET at Eleanor R. Baldwin Arena
Florida Atlantic is understandably a large favorite over Florida International here, but our bet is on the Under as we think FIU may not even reach 60 points against a stout defense,
How Will FIU Score?
The Panthers come in at 3-7 and ranked 263rd in the country in offensive efficiency, and that is despite facing only two teams in their first 10 games ranked in the Kenpom Top 100. After struggling against those teams, they now take on the best team and best defense they have faced to this point, with FAU rated 20th overall and grading out at 98.9 points per 100 possessions allowed.
FIU has been one of the sloppiest teams with the ball in the nation, ranking 347th in turnover percentage at a whopping 22.2%, and they figure to be just as bad, if not worse, tonight stepping up in the quality of the defense they are facing. Also, the Panthers’ scoring average of 72.0 PPG is skewed by their schedule so far, so expect nowhere near that for tonight’s matchup.
Score in 80s Still Under
If we are correct about FIU scoring around 60 here, that would mean FAU would have to get to the 90s for this game to go Over, and we will happily bet against that. And that is not a knock against the Owls, who are extremely well-balanced and rank sixth in the land in offensive efficiency, at a hearty 119.7 points per 100 possessions.
However, FAU does not play particularly fast ranking 149th in Tempo Rating and 122nd in average possession length. Given the Owls figure to be playing with a large lead while shutting down the FIU offense, there would be no incentive to quicken the tempo.
The Pick
We see FAU topping out in the 80s, which combined with an expected offensive struggle for FIU and a posted total in the 150s has us betting the Under in Boca Raton Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Florida Atlantic 84 – Florida International 59
NCAAB Pick: Under 153.5 (–107) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Weber State Wildcats vs. Nevada Wolf Pack
Wednesday, December 13, 2023 – 10:00 PM ET Lawlor Events Center
Nevada should be in an ornery mood coming off its first loss of the season, and we expect the Wolf Pack to take out some frustrations on Weber State in a handy double-digit home win.
Unchallenged At Home
Nevada began the season 7-0 with all but one of the wins being by double-digits, with ironically the lone single-digit win perhaps being the most impressive as it was a nice seven-point road win at Washington. But the Wolf Pack ran into a buzzsaw Saturday, losing 72-53 on a neutral floor to an underrated Drake team ranked 65th on Kenpom.
We fully expect the Wolf Pack to shake off that stinker returning home here, where they are 6-0 with the closest win being by 11 points, especially with 125th-ranked Weber State representing a noticeable class drop from Drake. Nevada is nicely balanced, grading out at 109.1 points per 100 possessions offensively while also ranking 41st in defensive efficiency.
Poor Shooting
Conversely, Weber State has not shot the ball well at all. Hitting on just 44.6% of 2-point attempts and 30.8% of 3-point attempts, leading to a woeful 319th ranking in eFG%. The Wildcats have managed to go 5-3 by allowing 58.3 points per game, but they have been extremely lucky there, as they are 259th in eFG% allowed at 52.0%.
Weber State has benefitted from their opponents shooting 59.2% from the foul line, which is obviously unsustainable and out of their control. Speaking of foul shots, Nevada gets to the line often, ranking third in the nation in FTA/FGA ratio and they shoot 74.0% when they get there, just another way to pad their lead for this matchup.
The Pick
So, with Nevada solid on both ends of the court, and Weber State shaky on both ends despite the deceptive points against, look for the Wolf Pack to bounce back in a big way from their first loss with a safe covering victory.
Predicted Score: Nevada 75 – Weber State 60
NCAAB Pick: Nevada –9 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Seattle Redhawks vs. San Francisco Dons
Wednesday, December 13, 2023 – 10:00 PM ET War Memorial Gymnasium
We think that San Francisco is too erratic offensively to be giving nearly double digits in this matchup, so we are taking the points with Seattle on the road.
Slow Pace, Poor 3-Point Shooting
The Dons are 7-3 but lost to the three highest-rated Kenpom teams they have faced while not beating any team ranked higher than 149th. This is a team ranked 119th in offensive efficiency while playing at a slow pace ranking 291st in Tempo Rating, and being a poor 3-point shooting team, ranking 237th at 31.5%.
That is a combination that is not conducive to giving this many points even with ranking 35th in 2-point shooting at 55.9%, given how time-consumingly methodical San Francisco is in getting those great looks near the basket. Furthermore, the Dons are not great at ball protection, ranking 262nd in turnover percentage.
Defense and Rebounding
Seattle is 6-3 and ranked 131st overall on Kenpom, and while that may not sound like much, the Redhawks are still higher rated than any team that San Fransisco has beaten this season. Seattle is only slightly above average in eFG% offensively at 51.2%, but this is a team that is winning games with defense and rebounding.
The Redhawks rank 44th in the nation in eFG% allowed at 45.7%, which is the highest ranking in that category for any WAC team, and they do not allow many second opportunities to opposing teams ranking, 35th in defensive rebounding percentage. Seattle is also experienced with their players averaging 2,25 years at the Division I level, which helps when playing on the road.
The Pick
So with Seattle being fundamentally sound and experienced while San Francisco plays slow and scores most points from inside the arc, take the points with the Redhawks.
Predicted Score: San Francisco 65 – Seattle 62
NCAAB Pick: Seattle +9.5 (-110) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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