Top NCAAB Pick: Wisconsin Green Bay +12.5 (-110) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We have a rather small NCAA Basketball card on Tuesday with only 10 games on the main board, but we are still here with our three best bets provided by our main offshore sportsbooks.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences. Such is the case on Tuesday, with only one major conference school involved in our three best bets, highlighted by two small conference big underdogs.
Tennessee Martin Skyhawks vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack
Tuesday, December 12, 2023 – 07:00 PM ET at PNC Arena
In our only game involving one major team, do not expect much defense and bet the Over when Tennessee Martin goes into ACC country to pay a visit to NC State.
Could Pack Score 100?
It is not very often that we legitimately project a college team to approach 100 points, but such is the case here with an NC State offense grading out at 110.2 points per 100 possessions taking on a UTM defense ranked 321st in the county in efficiency at a hideous 111.0 per 100 allowed, especially if the Wolfpack get caught up in the phenetic Tennessee Martin pace.
And this looks like a dream matchup for a Pack team that is excellent at ball protection, ranking 17th nationally in turnover percentage at just 13.8% taking on a Skyhawks’ defense that applies no pressure, ranking 361st in turnover percentage allowed at a mere 11.8%. Not to mention UTM provides a nice breather for NC State after facing the likes of BYU, Mississippi, and Boston College lately.
Hectic Pace
Besides playing practically no defense, Tennessee Martin loves to run the floor, ranking eighth in the country in Tempo Rating while averaging just 15.2 seconds per possession, which has led them to post a winning 6-4 record despite the defensive deficiencies by averaging 87.0 points per game.
However, they have yet to face a major conference school until tonight, so we do not see them getting into the 80s here. But considering NC State should be able to score at will, the Skyhawks scoring in the low 70s should suffice for the Over, and that is a definite possibility for a Martin team ranked 32nd nationally in 3-point shooting at 38.6% while attempting 25.1 shots per game beyond the arc.
The Pick
Add in potential garbage time with NC State favored by over 20 points here, and this Over may cash with plenty of time to spare.
Predicted Score: NC State 97 – Tennessee Mattin 76
NCAAB Pick: Over 163 (–110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Sam Houston State Bearkats
Tuesday, December 12, 2023 – 07:30 PM ET at Bernard G. Johnson Coliseum
Sam Houston State seems overpriced here for a .500 team that does not shoot the ball particularly well, so we are taking the points with UL Monroe on Tuesday night.
Not Worth This Price
SHSU enters this contest at 5-5 without any quality wins, as the highest-rated Kenpom team the Bearkats have beaten so far is 190th-ranked Troy, and they do have one bad loss to 165th-ranked Utah Valley here at home, which does not exactly inspire confidence in a decided favorite like this.
The Kats play small with a 6’7” starting center and no other player in the regular rotation taller than 6’5”, and as a result they are one of the worst 2-point shooting teams in the country, ranking 343rd at a mere 43.4% while getting their shots blocked 13.3% of the time, ranking 333rd. And it is not as if they hit an abundance of 3-pointers to make up for that, as they are only above average at 35.2%.
Second Chances and Slow Pace
Granted, the Warhawks are not a great shooting team either and rank 281st in offensive efficiency, but they are an excellent offensive rebounding team ranking 11th in the country in that department, and they should easily dominate the offensive glass tonight against a severely undersized SHSU team.
That should keep Monroe in this matchup via lots of second-chance opportunities and let us also not forget that the Warhawks play at a very slow pace averaging 19.1 seconds per possession, which is the 334th slowest in the country. That slow pace offensively has made the defense seem better than it is, allowing a respectable 71.1 points per game despite ranking 277th in defensive efficiency.
The Pick
Simply put, we feel all the UL Monroe second chance points combined with their slow pace and Sam Houston State’s shooting issues will make it difficult for the Bearkats to get much separation here, so take the points with the Warhawks.
Predicted Score: Sam Houston State 71 – UL Monroe 68
NCAAB Pick: UL Monroe +8.5 (-109) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Wisconsin Green Bay Phoenix vs. Illinois-Chicago Flames
Tuesday, December 12, 2023 – 08:00 PM ET at Credit Union 1 Arena
In another case of an overvalued favorite, we simply do not feel that Illinois-Chicago should be favored by double-digits here, so we are taking the abundance of points with Green Bay for this matchup.
Don’t Score Enough
Yes, true to their character of recent seasons, the Flames are a very good defensive team ranking 46th in efficiency, 11th in eFG% allowed and first in 3-point defense, but even given all that, we simply feel that UIC is too limited offensively to be giving double-digits to anybody.
The Flames rank 243rd in the land with 72.2 PPG due to an inefficient offense ranked 241st in efficiency, while also ranking 302nd in turnovers at a lofty 20.5% of possessions and not generating many second chances ranking 240th in offensive rebounding percentage. Furthermore, this is not a good team at extending leads late via free throws, ranking 304th in foul shooting at 66.1%.
Inside Scoring Helps
The Phoenix may be just 4-6 overall, but they have not been terrible on the defensive end ranking 78th in eFG% allowed at 47.2% compared to the national average of 50.0%, so we expect the shooting woes of Illinois-Chicago to continue tonight.
Furthermore, while UIC has the best 3-point defense in the country yielding just a 22.2% success rate, the Flames have not been as good defending 2-pointers ranking 100th in that area, and Green Bay can stay in this game via their inside scoring as they are shooting 52.5% inside the arc compared to the national average of 50.2%.
The Pick
As much as we respect the UIC defense, the ability of Green Bay to score inside combined with the Flames’ poor shooting from both the field and the foul line has us betting the Phoenix as double-digit underdogs in Chicago Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Illinois-Chicago 67 – Wisc. Green Bay 63
NCAAB Pick: Wisconsin Green Bay +12.5 (-110) at Heritage Sports
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