Top NCAAF Pick: Iowa +8 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The 2023 College Football Bowl Season is now almost at its climax with the College Football Playoff Semifinals less than one week away. We are here with two picks for one of the earlier games for New Year’s Day.
These picks are mostly based on our proprietary model, and our two best bets for the week are for the side and total in the Citrus Bowl with Iowa taking on Tennessee. Let’s dive into our NCAAF odds and see how to start the year at the main offshore sportsbooks.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Tennessee Volunteers
Monday, January 01, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Camping World Stadium
Iowa got to this point with an elite defense overcoming one of the worst offenses in the country. With Tennessee probably forced to become more one-dimensional this game without its star running back, we are betting on that defense to get the Hawkeyes the cover and get more than a touchdown here.
No Depth Behind Wright
For this matchup, Tennessee certainly took the worst of it, with both sides of the ball suffering from the opt-outs and transfer portal. The single biggest defection for this contest is Volunteers’ running back Jaylen Wright and his 1,013 rushing yards opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft.
Tennessee did not go unscathed defensively either, with a total of four cornerbacks that combined to play for about 1200 snaps, all entering the transfer portal.
There is not much depth behind Wright with no other running back reaching 500 yards, so the Vols will probably rely heavily on the passing of Joe Milton III, who did throw for 2814 yards with 20 touchdown passes against five interceptions. However, many of Milton’s passes were short to intermediate throws, as he averaged a modest 7.0 yards per attempt, and it remains to be seen how he performs without his usual rushing support.
And this is not to mention Milton will be throwing against an Iowa defense that not only ranked ninth in the country in passing defense allowing only 172.2 yards per game through the air, but also led the nation in fewest passing yards per completion (8.8) and ranked second in fewest passing yards per attempt (5.0).
Elite Defense
Iowa’s only semi-major loss for this game is wide receiver Diante Vines to the transfer portal, although he had just 12 receptions while playing 344 snaps this season. Furthermore, that loss is easily offset by the projected return of tight end Luke Lachey, who was on his way to a nice season with 10 catches for 131 yards in just two games before getting injured.
But amazing defense is the reason Iowa went to the Big Ten Championship Game, as the Hawkeyes were inept offensively ranking 133rd in total offense, 133rd in yards per play (4.0), 109th in rushing offense, and 130th in passing offense. Just about the only bit of good news on the offensive side is the expected return of Lachey, which combined with Tennessee’s shortage of cornerbacks may potentially lead to some rare downfield throws.
But the offensive woes without Lachey did not matter with the defense allowing 13.2 points per game, fourth lowest in the country, and that looks even better if you take away the season-high 26 points allowed to top-ranked Michigan in the Big Ten Championship. The Hawkeyes were great in every way defensively. Besides the success against the pass mentioned earlier, they were also eighth in yards per rush allowed (3.0).
The Pick
In the end, we see this game being decided by a field goal or less either way, so while we are picking the Volunteers to win outright, we simply cannot pass up betting on a defense as great as Iowa’s catching more than a touchdown.
Predicted Score: Tennessee 16 – Iowa 13
NCAAF Pick: Iowa +8 (-108) at Heritage Sports
Even “Low” Total Good
Moving to the total, we can totally understand being leery of betting an Under with a consensus total of 36, but some context is in order here.
Iowa enters this game having gone Under in eight straight games, with the last seven games all closing with totals below 36, including the two lowest totals in recorded NCAA Football history, 27.5 against Rutgers and 25 against Nebraska. So in that sense, 36 does not look so bad.
And while the intuition with Tennessee becoming more pass-heavy may be to expect more scoring, that is not the case against an Iowa defense that is so good, it can add an extra wrinkle defending the pass without sacrificing much against the run with Wright out.
The Pick
We will look for Iowa to continue its run of Unders after going Under totals much lower than this during the streak.
NCAAF Pick: Under 36 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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