NFL Pick: 2023 Cincinnati Bengals Over 11 Wins (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline review)
The Cincinnati Bengals are coming off the most successful 2-year run in team history with back-to-back division titles and appearances in the AFC Championship Game, but the Bengals are hungry for more after seeing the Chiefs win another Super Bowl in the Patrick Mahomes era.
Bengals vs. Chiefs may be the best rivalry between elite teams in the NFL right now, but the Bengals are hoping that taking their rival’s left tackle (Orlando Brown Jr.) gives them the upper hand in 2023. Is that enough, though?
The top-rated offshore sportsbooks have fluctuated a little with the win total for Cincinnati, perhaps due to the calf strain suffered this training camp by quarterback Joe Burrow. However, this could present an interesting betting opportunity for your NFL picks on what is one of the leading Super Bowl candidates this year.
The Changes That Matter
The Bengals are going all in on the offensive line, but is that the only change this team needed? The secondary may also be lacking.
Is Orlando Brown Jr. the Missing Piece?
The chatter in Cincinnati since 2020 is that Burrow needs a better offensive line. The line was blamed when he tore his ACL in 2020, the line was blamed for the excessive number of sacks he took in 2021, and the line was blamed for the team’s slow start and playoff exit in 2022. There is no denying the line needs to get better, but the team did suffer some unfortunate injuries with 3 starters going down late in the season.
Yet, the Bengals persevered in Buffalo and won that game with 60% of the starting line out. It sure helped that it snowed and Buffalo’s pass rush, which was missing Von Miller (torn ACL on Thanksgiving), did not get the job done. However, that was a strong performance and the best the offense has performed in the playoffs in the last two years.
But in Kansas City, Burrow took 4 early sacks and the 5th one came at the worst time possible on a third down where it could have been a chance to move down the field for the win to return to the Super Bowl.
Cincinnati is getting those injured linemen back, but the major addition is really one player: Orlando Brown Jr. This left tackle has had one of the oddest career paths in NFL history, because there is nothing normal about a player with his resume, at one of the most important positions, joining a 3rd team in such a short period of time.
In fact, when he takes the field this year, Brown will become the first NFL player since the 1970 merger to make 4 Pro Bowls and play for 3 different teams in his first 6 seasons.
A Closer Look at Brown’s Career
Even someone like Deion Sanders, a multi-sport sensation in love with fame, waited until his 7th season before he joined his 3rd team (Dallas in 1995). Offensive tackles like Jake Long and Bob Brown (no relation) played 5 years with a team before joining their 2nd team in Year 6, but Brown is in a class of his own here with this type of player movement early in his career.
It is not like the Ravens and Chiefs are dumb teams. In fact, they are two of the best organizations in the NFL. If they did not see the value in keeping Brown at tackle for more than a few seasons, then how good or valuable can he really be?
Fans will point to Lamar Jackson (2019) and Patrick Mahomes (2022) winning MVP in years where Brown was a starting tackle in their offense, but Brown also arrived in Kansas City in 2021, which was by far the worst season of Mahomes’ career to this point. Mahomes had quite arguably more bad games in 2021 than his other seasons combined. That should not be ignored.
QB Sacks, Protection Importance & Tackle Impact
Sacks are also largely a statistic that quarterbacks control with their decision-making and quickness to get rid of the ball. Quarterbacks have better control over sacks than they do interceptions, and the year-to-year stickiness of those stats supports that fact.
Burrow has some tendencies to hold onto the ball and look for big plays down the field because he has three stud wide receivers who all play like they are a No. 1 and want to run the intermediate and deep routes that get those players paid the big money. The Bengals still lack a great tight end.
There is no doubt big value in protecting a quarterback’s blind side, which is why left tackle is considered at worst the 3rd-most important position on a football team after quarterback and edge rusher, but the problem with the position is it is still one guy, and he can really only block one player per play.
If your right tackle is getting beat like a drum, then there’s really nothing the left tackle can do about that side (see 2015 Panthers vs. Broncos in Super Bowl 50). We have also seen some stellar offenses struggle with blitzes and pass rushers coming in unblocked from the left side (see 2005 Colts vs. Steelers in the divisional round).
Does Brown help the Bengals? Yes. Does his absence in Kansas City make the Chiefs extra vulnerable against the Bengals? Not likely.
Some Defensive Changes
If the Bengals wanted an easier path to a No. 1 seed that would give them a home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, a better defense would certainly help. The defense already was championship caliber last year, but there is room for improvement.
Unfortunately, it is hard to say the team’s offseason moves have done much to improve the unit for 2023. The Bengals used their 1st-round pick on defensive end Myles Murphy, though he is likely to be a backup and part of the rotation this year.
Last season, Trey Hendrickson was routinely playing a lot of snaps until an injury late in the year limited his snap count. He will be healthy for Week 1. Sam Hubbard usually plays over 70% of the defensive snaps on the other side, so Murphy is not going to play too often this year unless Hubbard or Hendrickson is injured.
The Bengals had 4 players play over 80% of their defensive snaps, but 3 of those players (all defensive backs) are gone now, including Vonn Bell, Jessie Bates, and Eli Apple. Now it is true that Apple became a punchline and will not be missed, but the team adding safety Nick Scott (Rams) and corner Sidney Jones (Raiders) after bad seasons in 2022 is not that exciting either.
Cincinnati needs to see something out of Daxton Hill, the safety they used a 1st-round pick on in 2022 and barely put on the field for defensive snaps.
2023 Schedule Analysis and Pick
Most teams have an Over/Under win total that is between two numbers, such as the Ravens being Over/Under 10.5 wins or the Chiefs being Over/Under 11.5 wins. But at BetOnline, you can find the Bengals at Over/Under 11 wins right now with both sides having the same odds (-115).
This presents some interesting value as the Bengals were recently Over/Under 11.5 wins. But at 11 wins, the likelihood of a push (Bengals finish 11-6) significantly increases no matter which side you choose.
Ideally, the Bengals are going to score a lot of points and win a lot of games this year, but they also play in one of the toughest divisions in the league. Lamar Jackson has new weapons in Baltimore, Kenny Pickett is no longer a rookie in Pittsburgh, and Deshaun Watson should play better for the Browns.
The Bengals also have to play the Ravens in Week 2 when Burrow may not be 100% yet with the calf injury that has him out for weeks now. The Baltimore rematch is on a short week (Thursday night) on the road in Week 11 too. The Bengals also have road games with the 49ers (Week 8) and Chiefs (Week 17) , two of the league’s best teams. The Bills get another crack at them too in Week 9.
With the safety valve of a push on this pick, this is a good chance to take the over 11 wins to give yourself some wiggle room. Baltimore is a realistic division winner this year, and remember, the Ravens were leading the AFC North over Cincinnati two Decembers in a row before Jackson’s injuries. No one has ever won the AFC North 3 seasons in a row.
But there are more reasons to think the Bengals could finish 11-6 or 12-5 than there are to knock them down to 10-7. You might get a push either way, but we’ll go with the over at the NFL odds.
NFL Pick: 2023 Cincinnati Bengals Over 11 Wins (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline review)
2022 Recap: One Drive Short (Again)
The 2022 Bengals may go down as the last 12-4 team in NFL history after some unbelievable circumstances led to the cancellation of their pivotal matchup with the Buffalo Bills in January.
Before that Week 17 game against Buffalo was suspended for Damar Hamlin’s unfortunate medical crisis, the Bengals looked very good on offense. It was the first recent matchup between the teams and the first meeting with Josh Allen and Joe Burrow as the quarterbacks.
This figures to be another central rivalry in the AFC with the teams trying to compete with Kansas City for the best team in the league. The Bengals also notched a 3rd-straight win by 3 points over the Chiefs in Week 13, overcoming a 4th-quarter deficit and stopping the Chiefs late in the game before Burrow ran out the clock to deny Mahomes getting the ball back.
The Bengals have shown a lot of positive traits in preparing for big games since 2021, but this team still has some shortcomings that have hurt them in losses. The Bengals struggle against teams with an elite pass rusher, which is a big part of why they started 0-2 after losing to the Steelers (T.J. Watt) and Cowboys (Micah Parsons).
They would also lose to the Browns (Myles Garrett) and the Chiefs (Chris Jones) at the end of the season. This is in line with last year’s losses to the Rams (Aaron Donald), 49ers (Nick Bosa), Chargers (Joey Bosa), etc.
Burrow’s Sacks, Playoffs, and Missed Opportunities
Over his last 31 starts, Burrow has only lost one game to a team that did not sack him at least 5 times, and that was Baltimore last year. That was also the only game that Lamar Jackson started against the Bengals in 2022. For the second year in a row, the Bengals were trailing the Ravens in the AFC North in December before Jackson suffered an injury that cost him the rest of the season.
The Bengals drew the Ravens in the wild-card round, and despite Tyler Huntley getting the road start, the Ravens were driving for the lead in the fourth quarter, but an ill-fated quarterback sneak was fumbled, and Sam Hubbard returned it for a record-setting 98-yard fumble return touchdown in a 24-17 win.
The Bengals had their best win of the season in Buffalo in the divisional round. They scored an opening-drive touchdown and dominated the game, winning 27-10 and handing Buffalo its largest margin of defeat in the last 27 games.
This set up a rematch with the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. The Bengals were playing from behind for much of the game, but they tied it at 20 in the fourth quarter and had a few chances to take the lead. However, Burrow took his 5th sack in the final minutes, and Mahomes was able to drive the Chiefs into field-goal range after a late shove out of bounds made the kick 15 yards shorter.
Once again, the Bengals came up short of a huge playoff win despite the offense only needing to get a field goal.
Calculators
