Top NFL Pick: Chiefs +2.5 (+100) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top sportsbooks have released their NFL odds for the AFC Divisional Round contest between the Chiefs and Bills.
The Bills are hot right now, but this game poses a unique challenge for them. All good things, including Buffalo’s ongoing win streak. must come to an end at some point.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Chiefs at our main offshore sportsbooks.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, January 21, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Highmark Stadium
Buffalo’s Win Streak
Buffalo appears attractive to bettors because of its ongoing win streak. The Bills enter Sunday’s game having won six games in a row.
But I am not impressed by this win streak.
Rather than entice me to bet on Buffalo, this win streak shows me that the Bills will consistently have close calls against mediocre or bad teams. What interests me is the outlook of a good team like the Chiefs.
Most recently, the Bills allowed the Steelers minus their best player to stick around in the fourth quarter. The game could have been closer if not for Pittsburgh’s early turnovers allowing Buffalo to race to its early large lead.
Narrow Victories
Before beating the Steelers, Buffalo’s offense failed to score more than Miami’s offense, despite Miami’s consistent struggles against winning teams. Close wins, by a combined total of eight points against Bailey Zappe (Patriots) and Easton Stick (Chargers), preceded Buffalo’s win over Miami.
While the Bills’ win over Dallas looks nice on paper, the Cowboys’ lack of effort – evident, for example, in its horrible tackling attempts against Buffalo’s running back – was conspicuous. The Cowboys were coming off a tremendous win over their divisional rival and clearly lacked concentration.
The Bills did beat Kansas City before defeating Dallas. But the Chiefs were in a bad spot then, having already lost two of three before likewise losing to the Bills.
I contend that the Chiefs, in terms of matchup, are the better team now than Buffalo.
The Key Number Is 20
Kansas City is 9-0 this season when it reaches 20 points. At one point in the season, the Chiefs had lost three of four – including one to Buffalo – because they were struggling to reach 20 points.
Part of this struggle is injury-induced. Against the Bills, Kansas City missed running back Isiah Pacheco. Pacheco is crucial to their offense because he gives them something on every drive that they do not have without him. Without Pacheco, they lack a running back who can effectively run between the tackles.
But Kansas City’s struggles have also been a matter of chemistry needing to be developed.
Chemistry Evolution
Patrick Mahomes loves to make things happen on the move. In order to connect with a pass-catcher, that pass-catcher has to have an understanding of where Mahomes wants to throw the ball. So, earlier in the season, you would often see Mahomes on the sideline telling his wide receivers where they should have run to.
Mahomes relied so heavily on tight end Travis Kelce because he and Mahomes, both long-time Chiefs, already have chemistry with each other. But now Mahomes has developed greater chemistry with other wide receivers, including Rashee Rice, who is clearly his top wide receiver.
Excluding the regular season finale led by their backups, the Chiefs are winning more consistently because their ability to score is improving.
Their defense is so good that they will win if they just reach 20 points.
Buffalo’s Banged-Up Defense
Buffalo’s defense lacks the personnel to handle Kansas City’s improved offense.
The Bills are ravaged with injuries, especially at the linebacker position. This will make it easier for the Chiefs to be effective with Pacheco and for Kelce to thrive.
One of those key injuries is All-Pro-caliber Terrel Bernard. He accrued eight tackles in his team’s win over the Chiefs but got carted off the field with an ankle injury on Monday. Bernard and the already injured Matt Milano would have been valuable to Buffalo’s coverage endeavors.
Buffalo’s secondary has also been hit hard, with All-Pro selection at cornerback Taron Johnson sustaining a concussion during Monday’s win. His injury makes life all the easier for the likes of Rashee Rice.
Even without all of these injuries, of which I just gave a few examples, the Chiefs would reach 20 points given their improved chemistry. Also, the addition of Pacheco and his drive-sustaining hard running should improve their situation.
Chiefs’ Secondary
Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen won’t be able to keep up with the Chiefs.
Their pass defense is top-caliber, ranking fourth, largely because of their excellent cornerback play. Led by L’Jarius Sneed, the Chiefs have an excellent track record against number-one wide receivers. Las Vegas’ Davante Adams is one of many examples. Stefon Diggs for Buffalo will soon be another.
But the Chiefs are also one of the best teams at limiting opposing yardage from tight ends.
All the more so without having Buffalo’s injury problems, the Chiefs’ defense will be too tough to score 20 points on. Josh Allen will get frustrated and revert to his characteristically turnover-prone self. Expect the boneheaded version of Allen to showcase itself.
Bonus Factors
Relative to Buffalo, who had their Wild Card game postponed to Monday due to the weather, the Chiefs get a two-day advantage in terms of rest.
They’ll be fresher – in addition to already being healthier – and better prepared.
Head coach Andy Reid has the advantage here. He is excellent in playoff rematches. Since last year, he is 3-0 in the playoffs against teams that the Chiefs had played during the regular season.
NFL Pick: Chiefs +2.5 (+100) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
