Top NCAAF Pick: Roman Wilson Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The College Football Playoff Championship will kick off at 7:30 pm EDT on Monday night. Here are three player props to consider before the two undefeated teams take the field.
Washington Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines
Monday, January 08, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at NRG Stadium
Michael Penix Jr. (Washington Huskies)
Michael Penix Jr. was the runner-up for the Heisman this year. The senior quarterback threw for 4,648 yards with 35 touchdowns and nine interceptions this season. He was also 6th in the nation in QBR with an 85.7 number.
Penix Jr. has come alive when it matters the most. He added 319 yards passing against Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship and racked up 430 yards passing against Texas in the CFP Semifinal.
The former Indiana quarterback has added at least 298 yards passing in 69% of games this season. He’s even hit this line in 70% of his last 20 games with Washington. In 2022, Penix Jr. nailed this line in 85% of games, and he’s hit this three times over the last five games.
What’s wild is that Penix Jr. seems to always play to his competition. He had just 162 yards passing against Oregon State and escaped with a win. Meanwhile, he added 430 yards and completed 76.3% of passes against Texas when the spotlight was all over him.
Michigan is undoubtedly the hardest defense he’ll face this season. The Wolverines have allowed only 159.5 yards passing per game this season. They just held Jalen Milroe to a really low number.
However, Washington’s passing offense is elite. They’ve added 344.71 yards per game in the air this season. Penix Jr. has some of the best wide receivers to throw to in college football and those guys should get some separation.
Let’s back his Over at 297.5 passing yards.
NCAAF Pick: Michael Penix Jr. Over 297.5 Passing Yards (-110) at BetOnline
Blake Corum (Michigan Wolverines)
Blake Corum has scored a touchdown in every game this season. However, he hasn’t broken out for major gains this year. Corum has averaged 4.7 yards per carry but has 237 attempts for 1,111 yards with 25 touchdowns.
He’s terrific at finding the endzone around the red zone. But he’s only had two games with at least 100 yards rushing. Even against Alabama in the semifinal, after adding a 21-yard rush, Corum still only had 83 rushing yards on 19 attempts.
Washington’s run defense isn’t all that. The Huskies have given up 137.36 yards per game on the ground due to poor tackling and a weak defensive line. However, Corum has only averaged more than five yards a carry in one of his last eight games.
He’s only really had three major breakout runs this season. Therefore, he’s hit this line in just 8% of games this year. So while Corum might get 20+ attempts, he’ll still have to share some carries with Donovan Edwards. J.J. McCarthy will also add some rushing yards at quarterback.
Corum’s got a great matchup. But asking for more than 100 yards out of Corum isn’t easy. Take his Under.
NCAAF Pick: Blake Corum Under 106.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at BetOnline
Roman Wilson (Michigan Wolverines)
Typically, Michigan doesn’t play from behind. But against Washington, the Wolverines could find themselves trailing by a score or two early in this game. That’s why I like Roman Wilson to get Over his receiving prop of 44.5 yards.
Wilson leads the Michigan offense with 45 receptions and 735 yards. The Wolverines aren’t a heavy pass-first offense like Washington. However, Wilson is a speedy receiver who has caught 12 touchdowns on 45 receptions.
He’s certainly J.J. McCarthy’s most confident receiver.
Wilson has averaged 16.3 yards per catch this season and just hauled in 73 yards on four catches against Alabama. In that game, he averaged 18.3 yards per catch and made some big plays late in the game to help Michigan survive against Alabama in the semis.
Wilson has hit this line in 58% of games this season. He hasn’t been super consistent in terms of yards, but again, he’s McCarthy’s best receiver and will be needed in a game that many think will be a high-scoring one.
If Wilson earns three receptions in this game, he’ll likely get at least 45 yards. He’s super quick and makes big plays for Michigan.
NCAAF Pick: Roman Wilson Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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