We have a typical schedule of 15 Major League Baseball betting matchups for Sunday, with 14 afternoon games plus Sunday Night Baseball. We are here with the three plays with the most betting value at the current MLB odds offered by the top-rated sportsbooks.
These value-bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which favors one side in the Cardinals vs. Brewers matchup this afternoon.
MLB Best Bet: Brewers ML (-143) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Sunday, May 12, 2024 – 02:10 PM ET at American Family Field
The Cardinals have lost seven straight games and nine of their last 10. We expect that losing streak to continue Sunday with Miles Mikolas on the mound visiting Bryse Wilson and the first-place Brewers.
Solid in All Roles
Wilson has contributed to Milwaukee’s success both as a starter and reliever, as he is making his 11th appearance and fifth start of the season. He has been solid regardless of his role, posting a 2.40 ERA across 30 innings with a strikeout rate of 8.10/9, which would be a career-high if maintained.
That bump in strikeouts does not seem fluky for Bryse, either. His average velocity of 94.5 MPH is at its highest point since 2019. Besides that strikeout bump, he has also raised his soft-contact rate to 18.4% from just 13.9% last season. He had six scoreless innings last time out while allowing only one hit. That is an indication that the Brewers like what they see and want to keep him in the rotation.
It also helps to be facing a St. Louis offense ranked 21st in wRC+ against right-handers at 94.
Brewers Crush Righties
Mikolas is now 35 years old with a career-low velocity of 93.2 MPH. Sadly that is reflected in his numbers. Coming off a season where he posted a career-worst ERA in any season he made more than 10 starts at 4.78, that figure has ballooned to 6.43 over eight 2024 starts.
Miles has combined a low strikeout rate of 6.86/9 with a high home run rate allowed of 1.71/9, with predictable results. Worst of all, there are no underlying signs of improvement given his awful swinging-strike rate of 6.7% and weak soft/hard contact ratio of 13.2% / 31.3%.
As if that were not bad enough, the Milwaukee offense has been one of the best in baseball against righties, ranking second in wRC+ at an impressive 124.
MLB Best Bet
What we have here is seemingly a mismatch in both starting pitching and offense. That’s not reflected enough in these odds. So, we are betting the Brewers as home favorites.
Predicted Score: Brewers 6 – Cardinals 2
MLB Best Bet: Brewers ML (-143) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
