Canelo vs. Charlo First Look Betting Preview, Odds & Pick

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Canelo Alvarez of Mexico (L) and Jermell Charlo (R) of the United States face off during a press conference to preview their super middleweight undisputed championship fight. Sarah Stier/Getty Images/AFP

Boxing Pick: Over 10½ Rounds (-280) at BetAnySports (visit our BetAnySports Review)

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Over 10½ Rounds (-280)
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The eagerly anticipated Super Middleweight bout between Canelo Alvarez and Jermell Charlo takes place this weekend.

The undisputed championship at 168 lbs will be on the line as Canelo looks to extend his position as one of the greatest ever. Still, he must tackle the light middleweight four-belt champion with a 35-1-1 record, Jermell Charlo.

Read on for our complete betting guide, taking a first look at Canelo vs. Charlo, including updated betting odds and our free expert boxing betting picks.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo

Undisputed Super Middleweight Bout Main Event

Saturday, September 30, 2023 – 11:00 PM EDT at T-Mobile Arena

Canelo Alvarez

  • Professional Record: 59-2-2 (39 KOs)
  • Age: 33
  • Born: Jalisco, Mexico
  • Height: 5’8″
  • Reach: 70.5″
  • Stance: Orthodox

Canelo Alvarez, the dominant super-middleweight champion at 5’8″ tall, needs no introduction. Prior to challenging the light heavyweight elites, Alvarez had an impressive 14-fight win streak. However, he faced a unanimous decision loss against Dmitry Bivol in 2022. It’s important to note that this performance cannot be used to judge Alvarez fairly due to the significant size difference between him and most light heavyweights. This difference only highlights his exceptional skill level.

Apart from the Bivol loss, Alvarez’s only other career defeat came at the hands of Floyd Mayweather. This loss fueled Alvarez’s determination to elevate his career and become a multi-weight class titleholder. Since then, the pound-for-pound king has reignited his passion for winning championships in different divisions. However, this weekend, he will return to the weight class, where he has displayed dominance and currently holds the undisputed title.

One of the Greatest

Alvarez’s exceptional skills in the art of boxing, both in offense and defense, have provided fight enthusiasts with a truly unforgettable athlete in combat sports. Canelo has proven to be an unstoppable entity in the world of boxing, with only the legendary Floyd Mayweather being able to conquer him.

As a source of immense pride for Mexico, Canelo has clinched numerous championships across different weight divisions, solidifying his place in the annals of history. Nevertheless, Canelo shows no signs of slowing down, persistently forging a legacy that will be challenging for others to replicate.

Canelo Alvarez’s Boxing Accomplishments

  • Championship winner in four weight classes
  • Unified champion in three weight classes
  • The first-ever undisputed champion at super middleweight

Canelo Alvarez Best Available Odds: -400 at BetOnline

Jermell Charlo

  • Professional Record: 35-1-1 (19 KOs)
  • Age: 33
  • Born: USA
  • Height: 6’0″
  • Reach: 73″
  • Stance: Orthodox

33-year-old Jermell Charlo has been a professional boxer since he was 17 years old. He has gained extensive experience in the ring throughout his career and is now respected for holding all the major light-middleweight championship titles.

In his 36 professional bouts, the Louisiana boxer has only suffered one defeat. However, he quickly rectified this loss by reclaiming his WBC title with a knockout just one year later against Tony Harrison.

Light Heavyweight King to Super Middleweight

In July 2021, Charlo aimed to unify the significant light middleweight titles by facing Brian Castano. However, the result of the match was a split draw, which meant that both fighters retained their respective championships. As a result, matchmakers had no option but to reschedule a second meeting between the two boxers.

Since dominating the rematch, options have been thin for Charlo, who’s decided to test his might in two weight classes above the division he’s dominated.

Jermell Charlo Best Available Odds: +334 at Bookmaker

Canelo vs. Charlo Analysis & Betting Prediction

How Can Canelo Beat Charlo?

Canelo excels under pressure, utilizing his expertise to exploit weaknesses in his opponents. When they lose concentration, exert themselves excessively, and deplete their energy, their chances of success are diminished before the fight starts.

Canelo employs a defensive strategy with a strong guard and a counterattacking approach. Despite often facing opponents with greater height and reach, the Mexican fighter relies on his body shots and combinations to deliver powerful offensive strikes.

How Can Charlo Defeat Canelo?

He should focus on a technical strategy inside the ring. Charlo showcased this ability in the rematch against Tony Harrison. In the second bout, Charlo made a notable adaptation, and his main objective was not solely to land a knockout punch.

This demonstrates Charlo’s ability to excel as a technical boxer and adapt to an opponent’s style in a rematch. If he can initiate a smart game plan without the first run-through, utilizing his length and the fundamentals of boxing can assist him in snatching a judge’s decision.

The Betting Pick

The available odds at the top sportsbooks are fair, and some will see a lot of value in Canelo’s moneyline at -300. However, I believe the durability of both men provides a clearer path to a winning wager.

The fight is expected to be a seesaw battle, reminiscent of the previous two thrilling encounters between Canelo and Golovkin. Anticipate numerous exchanges in close proximity, with both fighters comfortable fighting on the inside and trading heavy blows.

Given their proven durability, it is challenging to foresee a knockout victory. This match’s outcome will depend not only on the flawless execution of game plans but also on the boxer, who can swiftly analyze the situation and adapt accordingly. The one who establishes their rhythm early on and starts with a strong pace will likely emerge victorious.

Either way, back the over. We’ll have to pay up, but it still holds more betting value than Canelo’s moneyline. Neither man has been stopped via KO/TKO in their respective professional careers, and this trend will hold strong after this weekend’s super middleweight battle.

Boxing Pick: Over 10½ Rounds (-280) [2.80u returns 1u profit] at BetAnySports

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.