Brewers vs. Rockies MLB Best Bet: Independence Day Showdown

profile image of Willie.Bee
Fireworks light up the sky over Coors Field on the eve of Independence Day, on July 3, 2004 in Denver, Colorado. Brian Bahr/Getty Images via AFP

MLB Pick: Brewers ML (-136) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Heritage Sports logo
Brewers ML (-136)
Visit Site

On this Independence Day, the Colorado Rockies face off against the Milwaukee Brewers in a high-stakes showdown in Denver. Can the Rockies defy the MLB odds and secure a series split, or will the Brewers, favored by top sportsbooks, clinch their third win and deliver for their backers once again?

For more value picks and betting insights, check out our YouTube channel for expert analysis and tips.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies

Thursday, July 04, 2024 – 08:10 PM ET at Coors Field

The Fourth of July was made for fireworks, and the same can be said for Coors Field where some games explode on the scoreboard thanks to the altitude. That may not be the case Thursday evening, however, with a couple of pitchers who have been tough to score on recently.

Milwaukee will close out its only trip to Denver this year by sending Tobias Myers (5-2, 3.26) to the Mile High mound, while Colorado counters with Cal Quantrill (6-6, 3.78). Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review) is selling the Brewers on a -140 moneyline, and the total is 10½ with some shops adding some extra juice to the ‘over.’

Colorado pulled off an 8-7 win in the series opener in 10 innings on Monday, closing as a +130 underdog on the MLB odds. The back-and-forth affair featured seven lead changes or ties with Brenton Doyle enjoyed the second 2-HR game of his career to lead the Rockies.

Doyle homered again on Tuesday, but it wasn’t enough to give the Rockies their first 3-game win streak since mid-May as the Brewers came from behind for a 4-3 win as small chalk. That result ended the Rockies’ 6-game home winning streak against Milwaukee.

Colin Rea tossed seven shutout innings on Wednesday and a Christian Yelich 1st-inning homer proved all he needed in a 3-0 Brewers win. That result left totals at 2-4 O/U in the last six meetings at Coors Field, and gave Milwaukee its eighth win in the last 10 games while the Rockies are 3-7 over the same span.

Both Hurlers Selected Early in 2016 Draft

A pronounced home/road split is one of the first things bettors will notice about Myers. The rookie owns a superb 1.93 ERA in six road starts and a relief outing, covering 32.2 innings and accompanied by a 1.04 WHIP while holding hitters to a .205 average.

Climbing the mound five times in Milwaukee has resulted in an ERA that tickles the 5.00 level and a .260 batting average against Myers. He was no-decisioned in a 5-3 Brewers loss to the Cubs last Saturday but still managed a quality start (6 IP, 3 ER).

It was a long journey for Myers to make his MLB debut earlier this season. Milwaukee is Myers’ sixth MLB club since being a 6th-round pick by the Orioles in 2016, with stops in the minors for the Rays, Guardians, Giants, and White Sox along the way. This will be his first look at the Rockies.

Anytime a Colorado pitcher has a sub-4.00 ERA, it’s worth digging into. While scoring is down at Coors Field since the humidor, it’s still a tough place to pitch and Quantrill has proven up to the challenge with a 4.05 ERA (40 IP) and the Rockies 4-3 in those seven assignments.

Pitching on Chicago’s South Side last Saturday, Quantrill was knocked around by the White Sox in an 11-3 loss. He did strike out 8 in 5.1 innings, but Chicago also took Quantrill deep three times and scored five runs as a small road favorite at top sportsbooks.

Quantrill is wearing his third MLB jersey and is with his fourth big league franchise since the Padres made him a 1st-round pick out of Stanford in the same 2016 draft as Myers. This will be just the second time he has faced the Brewers, with the first an abbreviated relief appearance against them in 202 while with Cleveland.

Umpire Notes & Mother Nature

A part-timer who made his MLB debut last year, Derek Thomas is expected to be the umpire at the dish for the series finale. This will be his 15th plate assignment of 2024, and the 34th of his young career, and Thomas owns a 9-5 O/U mark calling balls and strikes this season.

There shouldn’t be anything about the weather that sucks. It’s been climbing into the 90s during recent days in Denver, and should still be in the low-80s at first pitch on Thursday evening. The weatherman is calling for a 10-15 mph blow from the NE (in from right-center).

The Pick

Milwaukee has a 7-game lead in the NL Central, which is the shortest lead of any National League division, and the Brewers are already showing they’re in it to win it after bolstering their pitching staff in a deal for Aaron Civale from Tampa Bay.

That commitment should bolster the morale in the locker room, and a win on Thursday will give the Brewers a little extra push heading into a weekend set in LA against the Dodgers. My pick is Milwaukee over the Rockies.

MLB Pick: Brewers ML (-136) at Heritage Sports

Heritage Sports logo
Brewers ML (-136)
Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.