MLB Pick: Brewers ML (-161) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We have a typically full 15-slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Wednesday with every team in action. As usual, we have three best bets for today’s slate with great betting value at the current MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model favors a side in Anaheim Wednesday night with the Brewers visiting the Angels.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Wednesday, June 19, 2024 – 09:38 PM ET at Angel Stadium
In a matchup of two pitchers with deceptive ERAs for opposite reasons, we are banking on the Brewers with Freddy Peralta in Anaheim visiting an overachieving Tyler Anderson and the Angels.
xFIP Belies the ERA
We have been fans of Peralta for several years as he keeps improving his velocity, and in turn, raising his strikeouts every season. Therefore, his current 4-4 record and 4.38 ERA look disappointing on paper after sub-4.00 ERAs each of the last four years. However, the underlying metrics are still promising and the xFIP is just about a fill run lower at 3.39, ranking 19th in the majors.
As is becoming customary, his velocity is at a career-high at 94.4 MPH at the age of 28, resulting in an excellent strikeout rate of 11.61/9 and a good 13.4% swinging-strike rate. He is also generating a career-best soft-contact rate of 24.1%, so as is usually the case, the Saber stats more closely support the good xFIP than the inflated ERA, suggesting looming positive regression.
Extreme Luck So Far
As for Anderson, well, he has been on the opposite end of the luck spectrum. He is 6-6 with an undeserved 2.58 ERA considering his xFIP is an ugly 5.09, which is second worst in baseball among qualified starters. He has been literally lucky as in scoring highly in the biggest Luck stats, with a low .225 BABIP allowed and a ridiculously high 87.0% strand rate.
And it is not as if Tyler is a guy who strands runners with strikeouts either. In fact, he has a terrible K/BB ratio of 5.98/3.92 per nine innings. Moreover, most of the contact he allows is in the air given the nondescript groundball rate of 36.4%, and he has a below-average overall Stuff+ rating of 94. Thus, once the BABIP and strand rate normalize, expect a huge jump in the ERA as it converges toward the poor xFIP.
That makes this one of our favorite kind of matchups with opposite regressions expected from the starting pitchers. Bet on Peralta and the Brewers Wednesday squaring off with an overachieving Anderson in Anaheim.
Predicted Score: Brewers 5 – Angels 2
MLB Pick: Brewers ML (-161) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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