We have a typically full 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Friday with all the betting action coming at night. And we have three plays that we feel hold great betting value.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model, along with the MLB odds at the top sportsbooks. One of the best bets for Friday comes in Beantown, where our model favors a total when the Brewers visit the Red Sox.
For additional MLB best bets from our experts:
And if you’re looking for even more value picks, make sure to visit our YouTube channel. This time, our expert covered Friday’s Cubs vs. Cardinals and Astros vs. Athletics games.
Top MLB Pick: Over 9.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox
Friday, May 24, 2024 – 07:10 PM ET at Fenway Park
We look for ideal hitting conditions to lead to an Over Friday in Boston with warm weather and the wind blowing out when Kutter Crawford and the Red Sox host Bryse Wilson and the Brewers.
Lying ERA
Wilson has made 12 appearances in multiple roles this season, with six outings each as a starter and a reliever. And while the end result has been a 2-1 record and 2.79 ERA, that latter figure is very deceptive given his 4.58 xFIP. His expected negative regression is more likely to surface as a starter, where it is harder to mask flaws than it is during short relief appearances.
Bryse has been exceptionally lucky with a very low BABIP allowed of .218 and a ridiculous strand rate of 90.4%. He has a weak K/BB ratio of 7.22/3.72 per nine innings and a bad hard contact rate of 37.4%. That hard contact is especially troublesome with the forecast tonight calling for the wind to blow out at around 10 MPH with mild temperatures in the 70s.
Not Much Needed for Over
Since we expect the Red Sox offense to get to the over-achieving Wilson in these conditions, Crawford may not need to allow much to clear this Over. And we do feel that Crawford is the much better pitcher here. However, like Wilson, we still do not think Cutter is as good as his 2.17 ERA given the 3.99 xFIP.
Yes, Crawford does have better strikeout potential at 8.84/9, but he has still been rather lucky with an 81.5% strand rate. His groundball rate is down to 32.9% from 34.9% last year and his average velocity is down several notches to 93.1 MPH from 93.8 MPH. That in turn has led to a decline in his swinging-strike rate to 11.6% from 12.5%,
The Pick
He is facing a Milwaukee offense rather surprisingly tied with the Dodgers for third in the league in wRC+ against right-handers at 119.
So, with two pitchers that are not as good as their ERA, two good offenses, and ideal weather, go Over in Fenway Park.
Predicted Score: Red Sox 7 – Brewers 5
MLB Pick: Over 9.5 (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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