Top NCAAF Pick: Troy -7.5 (-110) via BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Troy Trojans will look to win No. 12 against the Duke Blue Devils in the 2023 Birmingham Bowl. With lots of coaching changes at Duke and many players in the transfer portal, can Troy sneak in another win to finish the season?
Let’s go through some odds for this NCAAF Bowl season and see what we can do with it at our main offshore sportsbooks.
Troy Trojans vs. Duke Blue Devils
Saturday, December 23, 2023 – 12:00 PM ET at Protective Stadium
Duke’s Bowl Shake-Up
The Duke Blue Devils have made a lot of headlines heading into bowl season. The Blue Devils finished 7-5 this season. However, they watched their head coach leave for Texas A&M and saw their top quarterback head into the transfer portal. Therefore, the Blue Devils have named associate head coach Trooper Taylor as the interim head coach for the 76 Birmingham Bowl.
Taylor won’t have the head coaching job after this game. Instead, it’ll be newly acquired head coach Manny Diaz, who is coming from Penn State as the defensive coordinator.
Diaz has ACC experience from his time with Miami. His defense at Penn State was one of the best in the nation. Duke hopes he can bring that same type of defense to their squad. However, he’s got nothing to do with this game. He’ll be in a suite watching the game and taking notes about his players.
The Blue Devils will give freshman Grayson Loftis the start for this game. He’s looked really good over the last couple of games.
Loftis added 823 yards on 72 completions to finish out the season. He only started three games to conclude the year. The freshman also added eight passing touchdowns and three interceptions and was sacked only five times after about 140 dropbacks. Loftis isn’t a runner like former starter Riley Leonard. He’s also not super accurate just yet. However, he’s shown off his arm and has a legitimate ability to be really good.
Duke’s Transfer Dilemma vs. Troy’s Stability
Duke has seven key players in the transfer portal. They’ve also got two players with invites to the Senior Bowl in DL DeWayne Carter and OT Graham Barton. However, they haven’t announced an opt-out yet. On the other hand, Troy fans don’t have to worry. They’ve got one player in the portal. Nothing else is going on. They’ve got their full team ready to go after an 11-2 season with a Sun Belt Championship.
Quarterback Gunnar Watson threw for 3,339 yards while accumulating 27 touchdowns and only five interceptions throughout the season. Meanwhile, Kimani Vidal rushed 280 times for 1,582 yards, averaging 5.7 yards a carry. He also scored 14 touchdowns on the ground this season.
The Pick
Troy is not even comparable to Duke when it comes to offense. Troy has scored over 31 points per game and has added over 250 passing yards with nearly 160 yards on the ground per game. While Duke’s defense has played well this season, the missed tackles were alarming, and the run defense still allowed 146.33 yards a game.
I’ll side with the non-power-5 school.
NCAAF Pick: Troy -7.5 (-110) via BetOnline
What About The Total?
The Blue Devils won’t have four players on defense that earned at least 387 snaps this season. Duke will also be without their top two running backs, Jordan Waters and Jaquez Moore. Meanwhile, the defense also has multiple injuries including Center Scott Elliott and S Terry Moore, who is another starting defensive player that could miss this game.
Duke is a mess.
The Blue Devils have always been solid in the secondary. The pass rush has been effective this season. However, I expect Troy to run all over Duke. Once the run game starts to have success, the passing game behind Watson will do its thing, too.
On the other hand, Loftis will make some mistakes at quarterback for Duke. He’s a freshman. But this is his opportunity to go out and shine. The Blue Devils will still have Jaylen Coleman at running back. If nothing else, at least he’s a senior with five years of experience.
Meanwhile, a freshman runner, Peyton Jones, will also be available for Duke. But I think Duke will get more pass-happy with Loftis to see what they’ve got. This game will be told. Should Duke go after a transfer quarterback, or can Loftis grow and become a legitimate cornerstone of the offense for Duke? He’s going to have to impress Manny Diaz to get that chance.
The Pick
Look for Loftis to have success throwing the ball. After all, Troy has only allowed 103.23 yards per game on the ground. The success will come in the air for Duke and Loftis.
That said, I’m backing the Over 43.5. Duke’s defense is in shambles, while Troy’s defense will have a little harder of a time against an ACC offense compared to those Sun Belt offenses.
NCAAF Pick: Over 43.5 (-110) at BetOnline
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