NFL Pick: 2023 Atlanta Falcons Over 8½ Wins (-140) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Arthur Smith will begin his 3rd season as head coach of the Atlanta Falcons with another new starting quarterback in Desmond Ridder, but hopefully, this is the start of a long-term run.
The Falcons have posted back-to-back 7-10 seasons, but they showed improvement on both sides of the ball last year. They also get to play in a division that was won with an 8-9 record last year, and nemesis Tom Brady is finally retired.
The schedule alone is a nice reason to like the Falcons to improve their record, and the offshore sportsbooks have Atlanta favored to go over 8.5 wins. Are the playoffs in the cards for this team, or will Ridder be a flop?
Changes That Matter
The Falcons used their highest draft pick on a position they were fine at, but was the team fit too good to pass up? The defense should look different for a new coordinator after Dean Pees retired.
Was Bijan Robinson the Right Move?
With the Falcons holding the No. 8 pick in the draft, the quarterback was really out of the question with the top trio off the board by the 4th pick. No one bit on a wide receiver or tight end until the 20s, and the Falcons already used high picks on Kyle Pitts and Drake London in the last 2 drafts.
The best pass rusher on the board was Jalen Carter, and he could have stayed in Georgia where he was a college star and could learn from Grady Jarrett. The pick likely would have been accepted by fans, but it is understandable why the Falcons went a different way with the character concerns and off-field issues for Carter. Still, that one could hurt in hindsight.
Hyped Prospect
The Falcons ended up taking Texas running back Bijan Robinson, the latest “best prospect since Adrian Peterson” back to enter the NFL. He better at least come close to the hype, because the Falcons just got 1,000 yards out of a 5th-round pick in Tyler Allgeier, who entered the league with no fanfare.
But we know the Falcons want to run the ball, and they still have good depth with Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson. Robinson can catch the ball too and should be good for all downs assuming he can pass protect this year.
Robinson is the betting favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year (+300 at BetOnline). He did not show much this preseason, only playing in 1 game (4 carries for 20 yards and a 6-yard catch). But the Atlanta offense also barely played starters this preseason. Ridder only made one appearance too and was 7-of-9 for 80 yards and an interception.
Robinson’s touches will be heavily monitored early this season to see if he is getting the workload necessary to win an award. But with Robinson in the backfield, Pitts healthy at tight end, and London establishing himself as the No. 1 wide receiver, Ridder has what he needs to succeed this year and improve on the offense.
Young Players Navigate NFC South Changes
The Falcons also drafted new left guard Matthew Bergeron in the 2nd round, who will also be a rookie starter for one of the youngest offenses in the league. So far, Smith has shown he can put together a functional offense in Atlanta, but the young talent is going to have to establish the chemistry to make it work this year.
The good news is the rest of the division has even less chemistry with Baker Mayfield joining a new offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay, Frank Reich and Bryce Young arriving in Carolina, and the Saints are trying to integrate Derek Carr into their system. Only the Falcons are returning the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and quarterback from last year in the NFC South.
New Defense
The Falcons have been poor on defense for so many years that anything resembling mediocrity would be just fine this year for new defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen. He comes over from the rival Saints where he spent 6 seasons coaching the line and being the co-defensive coordinator last year for a successful unit.
This is the biggest coaching job of Nielsen’s career to this point, and he has a fairly new unit of players to coach.
Pass rusher Grady Jarrett and corner A.J. Terrell are familiar names in Atlanta, but this team is welcoming Calais Campbell, David Onyemata, and Bud Dupree in the defensive front. The 37-year-old Campbell is itching for his 100th career sack (he is at 99 sacks), Onyemata played for Nielsen in New Orleans, and Dupree is trying to get back on track after a torn ACL in 2020 has slowed him down.
Exploring New Signings
The Falcons also signed safety Jessie Bates from the Bengals where he had a lot of big-game experience the last couple of seasons. The Falcons will also kick the tires on corner Jeff Okudah, the No. 3 pick in the 2020 draft who never caught on with the Lions.
This defense is unlikely to be a good unit on merit, but the schedule could feature so many inexperienced and ineffective quarterbacks that it could make the defense statistically respectful, if not strong. Just don’t trust them in a playoff setting against a top offense.
2023 Schedule Analysis and Pick
The 2023 schedule is so advantageous for Atlanta that this team may sneak right into the playoffs as a wild card or even NFC South winner if the head-to-head games go well against the Saints, the current favorites.
The Falcons will play 14 games against the NFC South, NFC North, and AFC South – arguably the 3 weakest divisions in the NFL this year. The only other games for Atlanta are a home game with Washington (winnable), a trip to Arizona in Week 10 (better beat the team favored to have the worst record), and a Week 13 trip to the Jets with Aaron Rodgers.
That game against the Jets is the only game the Falcons have this season against a team that currently ranks in the top 10 for Super Bowl winner odds. What a draw of a schedule this could be.
A lot of this pick is still what you think about Ridder, but for a 7-10 team that added the most talented rookie back to an offense that gets Pitts back and no longer has rookies at QB1 and WR1, improvement with such an easy schedule feels inevitable.
We know the Falcons are going to still run the ball often and their games will have fewer possessions. Ridder will not have to win so many 35-31 shootouts the way Matt Ryan did before him, and with this schedule, not many of these quarterbacks will be capable of scoring 30 on the Falcons. In fact, Atlanta only allowed more than 27 points 3 times last year.
Temper your expectations for a division title or playoff success, but over 8.5 wins feels like the best bet on Atlanta in 2023 at the NFL odds.
NFL Pick: 2023 Atlanta Falcons Over 8½ Wins (-140) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
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2022 Recap: From Watchable to Forgettable
The Falcons were always a bit of a mirage as a contender last year, but at least for half the season, the team was watchable. Marcus Mariota got another shot in a Smith-coached offense after the pair did not get the job done together in Tennessee years ago.
However, through 8 games, the Falcons were 4-4 and averaging 25 points per game, which tied for 6th in the league. However, over the last 9 games, the Falcons were not fooling anyone with their lack of a threatening passing game.
The Falcons finished 3-6 and averaged 18.3 points per game, which ranked 24th. Mariota eventually lost his job and the Falcons started rookie Desmond Ridder for the final 4 games after a late bye week.
Solid situational play also helped the Falcons maintain a good scoring average early. The Falcons finished 10th on 3rd down and 14th in the red zone at scoring touchdowns. That was better than the defense, which really struggled on 3rd down, ranking 31st in conversion rate.
Fewer Possessions, More Pressure
With the Falcons rushing a league-high 559 times, not turning the ball over like crazy in a ball-control offense (14 giveaways in the last 14 games), and the defense’s inability to get off the field, Atlanta games had very few possessions. This could be a blessing or a curse, depending on how good your offense really is.
The margin for error shrinks when you get fewer possessions, but the same is true of your opponent.
For the most part, the Falcons played up or down to the level of the opponent. The only real impressive win for the team was Week 6 against San Francisco, a game where Mariota completed 13-of-14 passes for 129 yards and 2 touchdowns in an easy 28-14 win few expected against the No. 1 defense. But the 49ers did have a share of injuries on defense that day.
Atlanta’s last 4 wins came in overtime against a Carolina team that was not playing well, a terrible Chicago team that finished 3-14, a terrible Arizona team with David Blough at quarterback, and a Week 18 win over a Tampa Bay team that pulled Tom Brady and most of the starters before halftime.
But if the Falcons can win the games against the weak opponents, then that will bode well for their 2023 chances. More on that later.
Key to Ending 5-Year Losing Streak
It was good for the Falcons to get an early look at Ridder with the playoffs not looking optimistic. He did not throw any interceptions on his 115 attempts, but he also did not throw any touchdowns until his final start. Ridder’s 5.77 adjusted net yards per attempt was almost identical to Mariota’s 5.85.
Nevertheless, Ridder never played with tight end Kyle Pitts, who only played in 10 games due to injury and saw his numbers drop dramatically from his rookie year. Drake London performed well with 866 yards to lead the team, and 5th-round rookie running back Tyler Allgeier rushed for 1,035 yards.
The Falcons will lean on their young offense to end a 5-year losing slump this season.
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