MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-115) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We have a typically full 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Friday with every team in action. As usual, we have three best bets for today’s slate with great betting value at the current MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model likes a total in the Twin Cities Friday with the Athletics visiting the Twins.
If you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more betting advice. Today, our expert has advice on the Padres vs. Mets and Tigers vs. Astros games.
Oakland Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins
Friday, June 14, 2024 – 08:10 PM ET at Target Field
We are not expecting many runs in Minneapolis Friday and are thus backing the Under when Simeon Woods Richardson and the Twins host Mitch Spence and the Athletics.
Facing Struggling Offense
Woods-Richardson has been a pleasant surprise this year. Still a rookie after making one Major League start in each of the last two years, he has posted a 2.84 ERA over 10 starts covering 50.2 innings. To be fair, he has a much worse 4.09 xFIP, but he has averaged only five innings per start, which works well with a Minnesota bullpen that sports a 3.78 ERA and 3.91 xFIP.
Also, Simeon can continue to limit the damage against a struggling Oakland offense. After showing improvement to start the year, the A’s have dropped to last place in the AL West with the offense starting to regress back to 2023 form. They have now dropped to a below-average 92 in wRC+ against right-handers while ranking 26th in OPS at a meager .660.
Quietly Effective
One area where the A’s have sustained their improvement over last season has been pitching, and Spence has quietly been a part of that. He has had success in multiple roles, with this being his sixth start to go along with 11 relief appearances. And he has pitched to a 3.68 ERA over 51.1 innings, which is legitimized by his mostly matching 3.78 xFIP.
The rookie is not a strikeout artist at only 7.01/9, but he does rely on a heavy 93.2 MPH sinker to get batters out. And he has been mostly successful in that regard with an excellent 50.7% groundball rate. He also mixes in a biting slider with an outstanding Stuff+ rate of 121.
Therefore, with Spence showing great promise and Woods-Richardson also capable of continuing his good start against a bad offense, bet the Under on Friday.
Predicted Score: Twins 4 – Athletics 2
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-115) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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