We have a typical schedule of 15 Major League Baseball betting matchups for Sunday, with 14 afternoon games plus Sunday Night Baseball. And we have three plays that we feel hold great betting value.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model as per the MLB odds at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Our model points to a total in the Emerald City of Seattle on Sunday with the Athletics visiting the Mariners.
MLB Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners
Sunday, May 12, 2024 – 04:07 PM ET at T-Mobile Park
We foresee a higher scoring game than this low posted total implies, and we are thus supporting the Over when Alex Wood and the Athletics visit Luis Castillo and the Mariners.
Welcome to the AL
Wood came into the majors in 2013, yet this is his first season pitching in the American League. That unfamiliarity has not helped as he is 1-2 with a 5.30 ERA and 4.88 xFIP through eight starts. It also does not help that he has been wilder than ever and has seen a decrease in his groundball rate.
Alex has a poor K/BB ratio of 7.71/4.34 per nine innings, combined with a career-worst groundball rate of 37.1%. Even worse, his hard contact is all the way up to 35.3% from 28.5% for the Giants last year, and his soft contact is down to 11.8% from 13.8%.
Those are all ominous signs if his groundball rate does not improve, meaning the Mariners can approach this game total by themselves.
Need Not Allow Much
If we are correct about Wood struggling without his customary groundball rate, then Castillo may not need to allow much to clear this Over. Now, Castillo is better than his 3-5 record as he has a 3.35 ERA and 3.18 xFIP along with a very good strikeout rate of 10.43/9.
Still, Luis does show some underlying red flags with his average velocity at a career-low 95.4 MPH and his swinging-strike rate, while still good at 13.2%, well down from 14.7% last year. He is facing an Oakland offense that has improved since last year, in fact now a tick above average in wRC+ against righties at 101.
MLB Best Bet
With the Mariners expected to hit Wood well and Castillo to do his part allowing at least a few runs to the improved A’s offense, bet the Over in Seattle.
Predicted Score: Mariners 6 – Athletics 4
MLB Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-105) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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