MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We have a typically full 15-slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Wednesday with every team in action. We are here with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Wednesday comes in the Windy City, where our model likes a total when the Astros visit the White Sox.
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Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox
Wednesday, June 19, 2024 – 08:10 PM ET at Guaranteed Rate Field
We expect a nice pitching duel at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago on Wednesday. Thus, we are betting the Under when Garrett Crochet and the White Sox host Hunter Brown and the Astros.
Highlight of Dismal Season
The White Sox have the worst record in baseball at 20-54, but Crochet has been just about their only bright light with a winning 6-5 record, owning nearly a third of the team’s wins. One thing the ChiSox did right was converting Crochet into a starter this season after pitching exclusively in relief his first three years in the Major Leagues.
Imagine what Garrett’s record would be if he had a decent offense behind him! He is sporting a 3.16 ERA with a better 2.44 xFIP which ranks third best in baseball, with a spiffy K/BB ratio of 12.63/2.07 per nine innings. He has averaged 96.8 MPH with the larger workload while still maintaining the ability to reach 100 MPH when warranted, producing an excellent 14.8% swinging-strike rate.
Nice Turnaround
The Astros had a horrific start to the season that has them in the unfamiliar position of having to fight for a playoff spot. And the performance of tonight’s starter Brown mirrors that of his team, as he was terrible in April but has turned things around nicely since despite his current 5.00 ERA.
You see, Hunter posted an 11.84 ERA and 4.47 xFIP during the month of April. But he has posted a 2.58 ERA and 3.24 xFIP in seven starts since then including tossing 13 scoreless innings in his last two starts. He has lowered his xFIP for the season to a more respectable 3.58 with a strikeout rate of 10.32/9 after April, allowing two runs or less in five of the seven starts.
He should have continued success here against a White Sox offense ranked dead last in the majors in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers at a putrid 77.
With Brown expected to continue his turnaround against a dismal offense and Crochet transitioning well to a starter, back the Under in the Windy City.
Predicted Score: Astros 3 – White Sox 2
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-115) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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