MLB Pick: Mariners ML (-111) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We have a typical 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Sunday. We are 6-3 in our last nine plays, and we are back with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
Before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks, you should know that these value-bets are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Sunday comes in the Emerald City, where our model favors a side when the Astros visit the Mariners.
For more of our betting analysis, check out:
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners
Sunday, July 21, 2024 – 04:10 PM ET at T-Mobile Park
In a battle of two pitchers with very similar frontline profiles, Bryan Woo of the Mariners has done his best pitching at home. We are betting on him at home on Sunday over Ronel Blanco and the Astros.
Big ERA/xFIP Variance
Blanco has nice surface numbers for the Astros at 9-4 with a 2.56 ERA. He even tossed a no-hitter in his first start of the season. However, his peripherals tell a different story, starting with the huge gap between that ERA and his 4.21 xFIP. He has benefited greatly in the Luck stats, with a minuscule BABIP allowed of .178 and an unreasonable strand rate of 86.3%.
That luck has masked Ronel’s wildness, as he has a high 3.47/9 walk rate. Granted, that is an improvement from the 4.85/9 last year, but it is still a high number, especially with his strikeout rate also down to 8.26/9 from 9.00 last season. The reduced strikeout rate is validated by a severe dip in his swinging strike rate to 12.9% from 15.7%.
Blanco also has a relatively low groundball rate of 39.2%, which is not ideal when combined with an above-average hard contact rate of 31.3%.
Allowed One Run at Home
Woo has made just nine starts due to two stints on the injured list, but he is 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA when he has made it to the mound over 44 innings. Like Blanco though, that ERA is not quite “real” with his xFIP at 4.21. However, what is real is Woo’s affinity for pitching in his spacious home ballpark of T-Mobile Park.
Bryan had severe home/away splits as a rookie last season, with a 3.31 ERA and 3.73 xFIP here at home compared to a 4.82 ERA and 4.62 xFIP on the road. Well, he has taken those splits to another level this year.
Yes, he has a good 3.49 ERA in five road starts, although that is with a 4.34 xFIP. However, he has allowed a grand total of one run in three starts at home covering 15.2 innings, translating to a 0.57 ERA.
The Pick
We look for Woo to continue that home dominance today, making the Mariners our play at a reasonable price in Seattle.
Predicted Score: Mariners 5 – Astros 3
MLB Pick: Mariners ML (-111) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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