NCAAF Pick: Navy +2 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
There’s nothing like the yearly military gridiron matchup between West Point and Annapolis, commonly known as the Army/Navy game, and this season it will be held at Gillette Stadium, home of the New England Patriots. Let’s check out the college football odds board regarding this year’s game between the Army and the Navy as we keep cashing our NCAAF tickets.
Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen
Saturday, December 09, 2023 – 03:00 PM EDT at Gillette Stadium
Stat Trifecta
- Army is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games
- Army is 5-15 SU in their last 20 games against Navy
- The total has gone Under in 16 of Navy’s last 17 games against Army
Knights on 3 Game Winning Streak
After dropping five straight, Army has gone on to win their last three contests, including their 28-21 victory over Coastal Carolina on November 18th. Army quarterbacks, Bryson Daily and Champ Harris, attempted a grand total of two – that’s right – two passes and didn’t connect on either one.
There are one-dimensional offenses and then there is Army, Navy, and Air Force. The military academies are allergic to putting the ball in the air, yet all maintain relentless ground-and-pound attacks.
Speaking of which, the Black Knights ground crew mobilized and ran right over the Chanticleers. When the dust settled on Army’s seven-point win, senior running back Tyson Riley led the team with 112 of the team’s 365 rushing yards. Quarterback Bryson Daily also chipped in with 94 yards of his own and a trip inside the end zone.
Navy Sunk by SMU
Navy was also on a winning streak entering their last contest, having won their previous two games. But unlike Army, the Midshipmen had a top-tier caliber opponent in SMU to tangle with and nobody expected much, including the oddsmakers who tagged Navy as 18½-point road underdogs.
The chalk-eaters cashed by backing the Mustangs as SMU rolled to a 59-14 victory and Preston Stone lit up Navy’s secondary like a Christmas tree, passing for 369 yards and three touchdowns. The Middies’ run-stop unit stood tall in comparison, holding SMU’s ground attack to just 118 yards but senior tailback, Tyler Lavine, did most of the damage, getting all three rushing touchdowns for the Mustangs.
There wasn’t much to talk about offensively as Navy fell behind 28-0 in the opening quarter before junior fullback, Daba Fofana, took a one-yard plunge into the end zone to make it 28-7 with under a minute left to play in the first quarter.
Braxton Woodson was 9-of-18 for 71 yards, no touchdowns, and one pick but the freshman signal caller made it happen on the ground, gaining 104 of the team’s 182 rushing yards and a touchdown.
Our Top Picks
Navy has owned Army over the last several years, winning 15 of the last 20 contests. But in the past four meetings, these teams have split, with Army winning last year’s annual clash by the score of 20-17 in double overtime.
This year, Navy is a 2-point neutral site underdog while last season Army was a 2½ point hound. But I don’t think the few points will matter as Navy will likely win this game outright. I realize the public will do a quick scan of both teams’ most recent games and determine Army has the mojo heading into this one but I see Saturday’s game differently.
This will be reminiscent of the last dance at your high school prom – a slow grind. Both teams will eschew the air and focus on the ground. In all of college football, the bottom three passing teams are Army (107.3 PYG), Navy (99 YPG), and Air Force (88.3 YPG).
Same Old, Same Old
And if you think either coach might try to rewrite the script to catch the other team off-guard, think again, because both secondaries handle the pass fairly well with Army ranked 28th, allowing 181.9 yards per game, while Navy is ranked 68th in that category, surrendering 212 passing yards per contest.
No, this game will be a sledgehammer attack on both sides but the squad better equipped to defend the run is Navy and that’s the key to this game. Navy ranks 32nd against the run allowing 122.3 yards per game while Army is ranked 116th in that category, allowing 180 yards per contest.
I can’t imagine the Middies rushing unit doing anything but chewing up yards and moving the markers against a porous Army run-stop unit. I believe the oddsmakers have the wrong favorite in this game but I’ll grab the two points just because I can.
As for my other wager, the total is insanely low and I feel like a sucker going under, but here’s the thing. Both teams have a common opponent in Air Force, a team that also runs the ball constantly and both those games went below the 28½ posted total with 23 and 26 points scored in those games. Call me predictable, but you’ll be calling me a winner when it’s all said and done.
Navy and under.
NCAAF Pick: Navy +2 (-105) at BetOnline
NCAAF Pick: Under 28½ (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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