NCAAF Pick: Over 62 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Oklahoma took a major transfer portal hit ahead of the Alamo Bowl against Arizona, leading to some line movement on NCAAF betting boards in the Wildcats’ favor. Let’s go through the odds provided by our main offshore sportsbooks and see what the numbers will tell.
Arizona Wildcats vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Thursday, December 28, 2023 – 09:15 PM ET at Alamodome
If only Oklahoma would delay its exit from the Big 12 for a season or two, or if Arizona could’ve made its move to the Big 12 a little earlier, then this year’s Alamo Bowl would be a clash of conference foes.
Teams Combine for 18-6 ATS Record
Of course, that would make it the first scheduled bowl game between teams from the same conference since the 1979 Orange Bowl, but that isn’t important right now.
What is important is that Arizona draws the chalk line at the online sportsbooks with the Wildcats settling at -3 after some early movement in their direction. Most shops are selling a 62-point total.
Arizona and Oklahoma were both profitable during the regular season. The Wildcats finished a strong 10-2 ATS while the Sooners were 8-4. They differed in the totals column where Arizona was 4-8 O/U and the Sooners 7-5.
Both Teams Favor ‘Over’ in Recent Bowl Trips
Arizona is making its first bowl appearance since 2017 when the Wildcats lost to Purdue in the final few minutes of the Foster Farms Bowl. I remember watching the game but have no recollection of there ever being a bowl game sponsored by Foster Farms.
The Wildcats are looking for their 10th bowl win in school history, going 9-11-1 in the previous 21, and the last three have gone ‘over’ the totals.
Oklahoma’s streak of 25-straight bowl appearances – 2nd only to Georgia’s 27 – brings the Sooners to a total of 57 postseason trips (31-24-1). This is their second trek to San Antonio in the last three years following a 47-32 thumping of Oregon at the 2021 Alamo Bowl. Oklahoma is 2-3 SU in its last five bowl games, but 4-1 ATS with the last four topping the totals.
‘Cats Feature Dynamic Receiver Tandem in McMillan & Cowing
Arizona’s final season in the Pac-12 was successful. All three losses were by a touchdown or less, including back-to-back setbacks to Washington and at USC by a total of 9 points, and Jedd Fisch’s gang closed with resounding wins over then-No. 22 Utah and rival Arizona State.
The offense finished fourth in the conference – and 23rd nationally – scoring better than 34 points a game, and much of the credit goes to freshman quarterback Noah Fifita who took over for injured Jayden de Laura in late September.
Receivers Tetairoa McMillan and Jacob Cowing will be on the minds of Oklahoma coaches when game-planning. Each hauled in 80+ passes on the season with 11 and 10 touchdowns respectively. McMillian was one of three Pac-12 wideouts to average at least 100 receiving yards per game.
The Wildcats have not been beat up by the transfer portal so far, with safety Isaiah Taylor the only player of mention opting out of the program.
OU Begins Post-Gabriel Era
For Brent Venables and Oklahoma, the 2023 campaign came down to the games against the Sooners’ two biggest rivals. Times were good when they beat Texas in an exciting 34-30 final as 4-point underdogs on the odds. That left the Sooners 6-0 to begin October as the No. 5 team in the country.
But then came a true upset at Kansas to end the month, and a 27-24 defeat to Oklahoma State in what could be the final Bedlam matchup. Oklahoma was favored by a touchdown in that one.
The real ‘bedlam’ for Venables and his staff is preparing the Sooners to play this game without quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who announced his intent to play for the Oregon Ducks next season. Gabriel was top 10 nationally in yards, touchdowns and QB rating, and will be replaced by freshman Jackson Arnold who threw 24 passes this season, 11 in the season opener.
Head-to-Head & Conference History
Barry Switzer still roamed the sidelines for Oklahoma when these two first met in 1988. The Sooners scored a win at home over the Wildcats, and Switzer was soon pushed out by a doozy of a scandal before Arizona beat OU the next year in Tucson. That’s the extent of OU/UA history.
Neither side has much recent history against the conferences they currently call home. Arizona has faced just one Big 12 school in the last 11 seasons, and that was a win and cover at home against Texas Tech in 2019.
Oklahoma has a little more action against the Pac-12, but not much. In addition to the forementioned win and cover against Oregon at the 2021 Alamo Bowl, the Sooners slapped UCLA around on the 2018-19 schedules in a home-&-home series, and were favored by more than three touchdowns in both of those contests.
The Pick
If you’re planning to be in San Antonio for the game, make sure and enjoy the brisket tacos at Garcia’s out on old Fredericksburg Road. Savor them with a side of ‘Over’ 62 for my free college football pick.
NCAAF Pick: Over 62 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
