Angels vs. Mariners MLB Best Bet: Castillo to Make Halos Fall

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Luis Castillo #58 of the Seattle Mariners reacts during the game against the Houston Astros. Steph Chambers/Getty Images/AFP

MLB Pick: Mariners ML (-185) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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Mariners ML (-185)
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We have a typically full slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups Sunday with all 30 MLB teams in action. As usual, we have three best bets for today’s slate.

These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model points to a side in the Emerald City Sunday with the Angels visiting the Mariners.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners

Sunday, June 02, 2024 – 04:10 PM ET at T-Mobile Park

While the Mariners are bigger favorites over the Angels than we usually bet, we are laying the odds here as we see this as a huge pitching mismatch favoring Luis Castillo over Griffin Canning.

Consistently Good

Castillo has carved out a nice career since entering the Major Leagues in 2017, posting an identical career 3.52 ERA and 3.52 xFIP. Not only that, but he has been consistently in that range almost every year. This season is no exception despite a deceptive 4-6 record, as he has a 3.28 ERA and 3.58 xFIP. The record is due to a lack of run support, which should not be an issue today (more on that in a bit).

Luis has his typically good K/BB ratio of 9.46/2.40 per nine innings. He has not lost much velocity at the age of 31, averaging 95.4 MPH, and he has three Plus-rated secondary pitches in his change-up, sinker and slider that make his already good fastball seem even faster.

He is facing an Angels lineup that lacks discipline, ranking 26th in offensive walk percentage at just 7.5% while simultaneously striking out 23.2% of the time.

One of Worst Starters

The Mariners should give Castillo ample support this time around facing one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season. Canning is 2-4 and probably deserves a worse record given his 5.08 ERA. And that ERA is no fluke as it comes with an aligning 5.06 xFIP that is the third worst in baseball among pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched.

There could be a physical issue involved here as Griffin has seen his velocity sink to 93.8 MPH, which in turn has led to his strikeout rate plummeting to just 6.51/9 from 9.85/9 last season. Batters are seeing the ball well against him with his swinging-strike rate down to 10.1% from 12.8% and poor soft/hard contact ratio of 12.1% / 34.1%.

Given this perceived pitching mismatch, we will go ahead and lay the big odds with the Mariners Sunday.

Predicted Score: Mariners 6 – Angels 2

MLB Pick: Mariners ML (-185) at Bookmaker

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.